108
FXUS62 KCAE 250546
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
146 AM EDT FRI SEP 25 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
CAD CONDITIONS ARE GRADUALLY ERODING THIS MORNING. AVIATION
DISCUSSION UPDATED FOR 06Z TAFS.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1. COOLER BUT DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY RETURN TO NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL VALUES
NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: COOLER BUT DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS
WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY RETURN TO NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL
VALUES NEXT WEEK.
WEDGE CONDITIONS APPEAR TO BE GRADUALLY ERODING ALREADY EARLY
THIS MORNING AS NIGHTTIME MICROPHYSICS IMAGERY REVEALS THE
STRATO-CU DECK SLOWLY BREAKING UP, ESPECIALLY TOWARD THE SC/NC
BORDER. THIS COMES AS A PUSH OF DRY AIR IN SEEN INTO NC WHERE
SURFACE DEWPOINTS ARE FALLING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 40S. THIS IS
LARGELY DUE TO THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH PIVOTING OFFSHORE
WITH NORTHERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW NOW ENSUING. DESPITE
GRADUALLY CLEARING SKIES TODAY, FAIRLY WEAK BUT PERSISTENT CAA
SHOULD KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. THIS SHOULD
ALSO BRING ANOTHER MUCH COOLER NIGHT WHERE OVERNIGHT LOWS INTO
SATURDAY MAY FALL INTO THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S. A COUPLE SPOTS
NEARING THE MID 40S IS NOT OUT OF QUESTION. OVER THE WEEKEND,
THE UPPER TROUGH FULLY CUTS OFF, WITH A CUT OFF LOW MEANDERING
OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST, KEEPING A GENERAL TROUGHING PATTERN
OVER THE REGION AS A BIT OF A BLOCKING PATTERN SETS UP WITH THE
RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS AND ANOTHER CUT OFF LOW NEAR
BRITISH COLUMBIA/ALBERTA CANADA. IN TERMS OF SENSIBLE WEATHER,
DRY CONDITIONS LIKELY PERSIST WITH PWAT'S WELL UNDER 1", BUT
TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY WARM TOWARD THE LOW TO MID 80S. OVERALL,
A MILD/NICE WEEKEND APPEARS TO BE IN STORE.
NEXT WEEK, THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN GETS MORE MURKY AS THE
REMNANTS/MOISTURE OF WHAT IS CURRENTLY HURRICANE POLO LIKELY
GETS PICKED UP IN THE PREVAILING FLOW AND MAY INTERACT WITH A
SHARP SHORTWAVE DIGGING INTO SOUTHERN CA/THE FOUR CORNERS REGION
DURING THE EARLY TO MID WEEK. WHILE THE EXACT EVOLUTION OF THE
UPPER LEVEL PATTERN IS UNCERTAIN, ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE AND GLOBAL
MODELS INDICATE AT LEAST A PERIOD OF RIDGING IS LIKELY AHEAD OF
THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH, BRINGING BACK TEMPERATURES NEAR TO
ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE WEEK.
AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
OUTSIDE OF SOME BRIEF MVFR CIGS EARLY THIS MORNING, VFR
CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TO THE TERMINALS AND PERSIST THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD.
SATELLITE IMAGERY EARLY THIS MORNING IS SHOWING BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS ACROSS THE MIDLANDS WHILE SURFACE OBSERVATIONS ARE
INDICATING LOW-END VFR CIGS. HOWEVER, AN AREA OF MVFR CIGS IS
MOVING INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHEAST, AND MAY IMPACT THE
TERMINALS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS BEFORE CLEARING OUT AROUND
SUNRISE. CLOUDS WILL THEN CONTINUE TO LIFT AND CLEAR THROUGH THE
DAY AS DRIER AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION, AND SKC RETURNS TO THE
TERMINALS. SURFACE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE N-NELY WITH A FEW
GUSTS OF 15-20 KTS AT TIMES TODAY. WINDS THEN DECOUPLE THIS
EVENING, BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO CALM FOR THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
EXTENDED PERIOD.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...DH
AVIATION...EC
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