708
FXUS62 KCAE 280548
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
148 AM EDT MON SEP 28 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
FORECAST THIS WEEK REMAINS ON TRACK. AVIATION DISCUSSION
UPDATED FOR 06Z TAFS.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1. DRY CONDITIONS WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THE
FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK. RAIN CHANCES MAY ENTER LATE IN THE
WEEK INTO THIS WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: DRY CONDITIONS WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK. RAIN CHANCES MAY ENTER LATE
IN THE WEEK INTO THIS WEEKEND.
ANOTHER COOL MORNING IS EXPECTED NEAR DAYBREAK WITH LOW
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 50S, THOUGH A FEW SPOTS INTO THE
UPPER 40S COULD BE POSSIBLE. A BLOCKING PATTERN REMAINS IN PLACE
TODAY WITH THE UPPER LOW CURRENTLY POSITIONED OVER NEW ENGLAND,
THE RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS, AND THE SHARP TROUGH
CURRENTLY SWINGING INTO CA OFF THE PACIFIC COAST. THIS PATTERN
WILL MAINTAIN LOW LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY FLOW TODAY, KEEPING DRY
AIR IN PLACE AND BRINGING TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S
ONCE AGAIN. HEADING INTO THE MID WEEK, THE TROUGH OUT WEST
SLOWLY DRIFTS EASTWARD, ADVECTING THE UPPER RIDGE TOWARD THE FA,
BRINGING TEMPERATURES THAT SHOULD WARM BACK SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL, IN THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90F. AS THIS OCCURS, LOW LEVEL
FLOW BECOMES INCREASINGLY SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY, BRINGING
DEEPER MOISTURE BACK TO THE SOUTHEAST, THOUGH DRY WEATHER LIKELY
PERSISTS WITH MINIMAL FORCING. AS THE TROUGH SHIFTS INTO THE
CENTRAL CONUS AND THE RIDGE CENTERS OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST,
DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW SHOULD ADVECT PLENTIFUL MOISTURE INTO THE
CWA WITH LREF PROBABILITIES FOR PWAT'S OVER 1.75" REACHING
60-80% INTO SATURDAY. WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY COULD AID IN
SPARKING DIURNAL RAIN/STORMS CHANCES STARTING FRIDAY, CONTINUING
INTO THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE VALID TAF PERIOD.
OUTSIDE OF A FEW PASSING HIGH CIRRUS, EXPECT SKC TO CONTINUE.
HIGH PRESSURE AND A VERY DRY AIRMASS WILL PROMOTE VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS AT ALL TAF SITES. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE
LIGHT AND VARIABLE, WITH PERHAPS SOME NW-NE WINDS THIS AFTERNOON
AROUND 6 KTS.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MOSTLY VFR IN THE EXTENDED WITH
INCREASING MOISTURE BY THE END OF THE WEEK.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...DH
AVIATION...EC
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