365
FXUS62 KCAE 281733
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
133 PM EDT MON SEP 28 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
MINIMAL CHANGES TO LATEST FORECASTING TRENDS. AVIATION
DISCUSSION UPDATED FOR 18Z TAFS.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1. DRY CONDITIONS WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
INTO FRIDAY.
- 2. RAIN CHANCES MAY ENTER LATE IN THE WEEK THROUGH THIS
WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: DRY CONDITIONS WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED INTO FRIDAY.
UPPER RIDGING WILL STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE AREA AS
THE LOW OFF THE NORTHEASTERN COAST TRACKS FURTHER AWAY FROM THE
REGION. AT THE SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY MOVE OFF THE
COAST THROUGH MID- WEEK. THE SURFACE WIND PATTERN SHIFTS TO MORE
SOUTHERLY AS THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES EAST. THIS PATTERN WILL
BRING TEMPERATURES BACK UP ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH FRIDAY, WITH
AFTERNOON HIGHS BACK UP INTO THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90.
MOISTURE WILL SLOWLY INCREASE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
HOWEVER WITH THE UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE AREA, AND THE MOISTURE
STILL SOMEWHAT SHALLOW, CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN DRY FOR THE
WORK WEEK.
KEY MESSAGE 2: RAIN CHANCES MAY ENTER LATE IN THE WEEK THROUGH
THIS WEEKEND.
AS WE GET INTO THE WEEKEND, AN APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH WILL WEAKEN
THE UPPER RIDGE. AS THIS OCCURS, MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE,
AND SHOULD EVENTUALLY BE DEEP ENOUGH TO BEGIN BRINGING RAIN CHANCES
BACK ACROSS THE REGION THIS WEEKEND. PWAT VALUES APPEAR TO RISE TO
OVER 1.75 INCHES INTO SATURDAY. SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING THROUGH
THE APPROACHING UPPER TOUGH IS EXPECTED TO SPARK DIURNAL
RAIN/STORMS ALONG AN APPROACHING SURFACE FRONT THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. BEHIND THE FRONT FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK, TEMPERATURES DROP
BACK DOWN BELOW NORMAL.
AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE VALID TAF PERIOD.
A DRY AIRMASS WITH HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED TO THE NORTH WILL
CONTINUE TO KEEP VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS AT ALL
TAF SITES. ONLY A FEW PASSING CIRRUS OVERHEAD ARE EXPECTED,
OTHERWISE SKC. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE
THROUGH THIS EVENING, THEN FALL CALM TONIGHT AT ALL SITES EXCEPT
DNL, WHERE LIGHT WINDS HAVE PERSISTED THE PAST COUPLE OF
NIGHTS. ALTHOUGH MOS AND LAMP GUIDANCE HINT AT SOME PATCHY
GROUND FOG POSSIBLE AT FOG-PRONE AGS AROUND SUNRISE, DEW POINT
DEPRESSIONS OF 3-5 C WILL LARGELY PREVENT FORMATION, AND ANY
FOG THAT DOES FORM WILL BE SHALLOW AND PATCHY ENOUGH TO NOT
RESULT IN VIS RESTRICTIONS. EXPECT LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS TO
RETURN BY TUESDAY MID TO LATE MORNING.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MOSTLY VFR IN THE EXTENDED WITH
INCREASING MOISTURE BY THE END OF THE WEEK.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...73
AVIATION...SF
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