979
FXUS62 KCAE 290528
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
128 AM EDT TUE SEP 29 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED FOR 06Z
TAFS.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1. DRY CONDITIONS WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
INTO FRIDAY.
- 2. RAIN CHANCES MAY ENTER LATE IN THE WEEK THROUGH THIS
WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: DRY CONDITIONS WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED INTO FRIDAY.
RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO BUILD INTO THE REGION THROUGH THE MID
WEEK AS A DEEP TROUGH SHIFTS INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS. AT THE
SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT INTO MID-ATLANTIC,
KEEPING DRIER IN PLACE UNTIL IT SHIFTS OFFSHORE INTO THE LATE
WEEK, TURNING LOW LEVEL FLOW OUT OF THE SOUTH. OVERALL, THIS
PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO YIELD DAILY HIGH TEMPERATURES INTO THE
UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY WITH MOSTLY DRY
WEATHER CONTINUING. IT IS WORTH NOTING MOISTURE WILL SLOWLY
UPTICK THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK, BUT DEEPER ADVECTION
OFF THE GULF IS NOT EXPECTED UNTIL THIS WEEKEND.
KEY MESSAGE 2: RAIN CHANCES MAY ENTER LATE IN THE WEEK THROUGH
THIS WEEKEND.
AS THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH OUT WEST SHIFTS EASTWARD AND THE
RIDGE BECOMES INCREASINGLY SUPPRESSED/DISPLACED TOWARD THE EAST,
STRONG MOISTURE ADVECTION IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN OFF THE GULF
INTO THE SOUTHEAST. LREF PROBABILITIES FOR PWAT'S GREATER THAN
2" REACH BETWEEN 60-70% SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AND WITH SUBTLE
SHORTWAVE FORCING EXPECTED, ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS
ARE POSSIBLE EACH DAY. ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE HINTS THAT A COLD
FRONT COULD NEAR THE REGION INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, POSSIBLY
BRINGING MORE RAIN CHANCES, BUT UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING STILL
EXISTS. WITH INCREASED RAIN CHANCES THIS WEEKEND, TEMPERATURES
ARE TRENDING BACK CLOSER TO NORMAL
AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE 24HR TAF PERIOD.
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO RESIDE OVER THE REGION WITH A DRY AIR
MASS IN PLACE. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A FEW HIGHER CLOUDS
SLOWLY MOVING THROUGH THE AREA BUT SKIES SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY
CLEAR THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. LOW CROSSOVER TEMPS AND THE
DRIER AIR MASS IN PLACE SHOULD PREVENT FOG CONCERNS FOR ONE MORE
NIGHT. CALM WINDS EXPECTED TO ONLY INCREASE A BIT THROUGH THE
DAY UNDER HIGH PRESSURE AND GENERALLY BE VARIABLE AROUND 5
KNOTS.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MOSTLY VFR IN THE EXTENDED WITH
INCREASING MOISTURE BY THE END OF THE WEEK.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...DH
AVIATION...23
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