243
FXUS62 KCAE 020540
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
140 AM EDT FRI OCT 2 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
DENSE FOG ADVISORY EXPANDED SOUTHWARD INTO BURKE COUNTY AND
NORTHWARD INTO SUMTER AND LEE COUNTIES. AVIATION DISCUSSION
UPDATED FOR 06Z TAFS.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1. AREAS OF DENSE FOG POSSIBLE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
- 2. MOSTLY DRY WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH
FRIDAY.
- 3. INCREASING CHANCES FOR RAIN THIS WEEKEND AS A FRONT APPROACHES
THE AREA.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: AREAS OF DENSE FOG POSSIBLE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS FOG DEVELOPING IN THE LOW COUNTRY
NEAR THE COASTLINE WITH VISIBILITIES REDUCED TO A 3/4 MILE. AREAS OF
DENSE FOG ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING'S COMMUTE WITH
INCREASING MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH, CALM WINDS, AND CLEAR SKIES.
THIS WILL ALLOW LOW-LEVEL STRATUS AND POSSIBLE DENSE FOG TO FORM
WITH VISIBILITIES AS LOW AS 1/4 MILE TONIGHT MAINLY IN SOUTHEASTERN
MIDLANDS. IT IS UNCERTAIN HOW DENSE OR WIDESPREAD THE FOG WILL
BECOME. CONFIDENCE IS HIGHEST IN THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE
FA WITH LESS CERTAINTY FURTHER NORTHWEST. LOW STRATUS AND PATCHY FOG
MAY REACH SOUTH OF I-20, BUT IT IS UNCERTAIN HOW FAR NORTH MOISTURE
SURGES.
.KEY MESSAGE 2: MOSTLY DRY WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL SHIFT EASTWARD TOWARDS THE END OF THE
WEEK LEADING TO ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AS 500 MB HEIGHTS WILL
RISE TO NEAR 1.5 TO 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL BASED ON
ENSEMBLE MEANS. THIS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO HIGHS NEARLY 10 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL, IN THE LOW 90S AS OCTOBER BEGINS UNSEASONABLE WARM.
WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTING OFFSHORE, LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE, ALTHOUGH FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE A
LAYER OF SUBSTANTIAL DRY AIR IN PLACE THAT WILL PRECLUDE ANY RAIN
TODAY. AS THE RIDGE BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN AND THE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
BEGINS TO INCREASE, ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTH, SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS A
POSSIBLY A STRAY STORM REMAINS POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON BUT MUCH OF
THE AREA IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY.
.KEY MESSAGE 3: INCREASING CHANCES FOR RAIN THIS WEEKEND AS A
FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA.
THERE REMAINS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY AS IT PERTAINS TO THE PROGRESSION
OF A FRONT THROUGH THE AREA THIS WEEKEND. LREF CONTINUES TO TREND
WITH PWATS GREATER THAN 2 INCHES AS DEEP MOISTURE BUILDS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. WHILE FORCING WILL BE GENERALLY WEAK, ESPECIALLY ON
SATURDAY, WEAKNESSES IN THE RIDGE AND CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT
WILL LEAD TO WIDESPREAD RAIN CHANCES SATURDAY CONTINUING INTO
SUNDAY. MODELS AND ENSEMBLES SHOW LARGE SPLIT IN TOTAL RAINFALL
AMOUNTS THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH AN AXIS OF HEAVIER RAIN LIKELY IN
THE AREA. LREF STILL CONTINUES TO SHOW SIGNIFICANT SPREAD FROM
AROUND 1" TO 2.5" BETWEEN THE 25TH TO 75TH PERCENTILE THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING. MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING DEEP-LAYER MOISTURE
ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY EVENING INTO MONDAY MORNING WHEN THE
HEAVIEST RAIN FALLS LIKELY DUE TO THE APPROACHING FRONT AND
SHORTWAVE TROUGH. DRIER AIR WILL LIKELY BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE
NORTHERN AREA MONDAY. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS HOW DEEP THE
TROUGH DIGS SOUTH. AT THE SURFACE, THE COLD FRONT IS LIKELY TO
MOVE THROUGH MONDAY MORNING, BUT HOW FAR SOUTH IS UNCERTAIN.
SHOWERS MAY LINGER THROUGH MID-WEEK IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST FA
DEPENDING ON THE FRONT POSITION ALTHOUGH DRIER AIR WILL MOVE IN
PLACE ONCE THE FRONT PASSES.
AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FROM ROUGHLY 08Z FRIDAY BEFORE FOG- STRATUS
IMPACTS ALL TERMINALS.
CALM AND CLEAR SKIES WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING
BEFORE FOG AND STRATUS DEVELOPS WITHIN THE ELEVATED COASTAL
MOISTURE. CONFIDENCE IS HIGHEST IN FOG-STRATUS PRIMARILY AT OGB,
WITH CONSISTENT LIFR CONDITIONS LIKELY AFTER 10Z THROUGH 14Z. THE
OTHER REMAINING TAF SITES WILL LIKELY HUG THE FRINGES OF THE DENSE
FOG EXTENT AS MOISTURE WILL STRUGGLE TO MAKE IT FAR INLAND. BUT SOME
PERIODIC ISSUES ARE LIKELY FOR THE OTHER TAF SITES, ESPECIALLY AGS
AND AIKEN. SO TEMPO GROUPS ARE INCLUDED FOR THE TIME BEING GIVEN THE
LOWER CONFIDENCE. FOG SHOULD LIFT TO STRATUS AND STEADILY CLEAR OUT
TO MVFR-VFR BY LATE MORNING.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...INCREASING CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION THIS
WEEKEND MAY LEAD TO ADDITIONAL RESTRICTIONS.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR SCZ029-031-
035-037-038-041-135>137.
GA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR GAZ077.
DISCUSSION...NS
AVIATION...23
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