954
FXUS62 KCAE 031827
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
227 PM EDT SAT OCT 3 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
POSSIBILITY FOR LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING THIS EVENING INTO
EARLY SUNDAY. TIMING HAS SHIFTED A BIT LATER FOR MORE WIDESPREAD
RAIN SUNDAY. AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED FOR 18Z TAFS.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1. FRONT APPROACHING THE AREA LEADING TO INCREASING CHANCES
FOR RAIN AND COOLER TEMPS THIS WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK.
INCREASED CONCERN FOR LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: FRONT APPROACHING THE AREA LEADING TO INCREASING
CHANCES FOR RAIN AND COOLER TEMPS THIS WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT
WEEK. INCREASED CONCERN FOR LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING.
REST OF TODAY INTO SUNDAY MORNING: DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IS
BRINGING ROBUST MOISTURE ADVECTION ACROSS THE REGION AS PWAT'S
ARE REACHING BETWEEN 2-2.25". THE ADVERTISED SURFACE FRONT IS
GRADUALLY DRIFTING SOUTHWARD FROM NC, CURRENTLY NEARING THE
UPSTATE AND SOUTHERN NC. AS OF WRITING THIS, WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE SEEN ACROSS SC, WITH THE MAIN FOCUS AT THE MOMENT
BEING JUST NORTH OF THE CWA. WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER HAS LIMITED
INSTABILITY BUT BRIEF POCKETS OF CLEARING ARE BEING SEEN TOWARD
THE SOUTHEASTERN MIDLANDS AND ALONG I-20. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO
WEAK, BUT SUFFICIENT (CONSIDERING THE MOISTURE CONTENT)
INSTABILITY FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS THE REMAINDER OF
THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THIS EVENING. HIGH-RES GUIDANCE AS A
WHOLE HAS DONE PRETTY POOR WITH HANDLING CURRENT CONDITIONS, BUT
RUNS FROM THE 12Z HRRR ONWARD HAVE BEEN DOING A BIT BETTER,
DISPLAYING THIS GRADUAL INCREASE IN COVERAGE. ENHANCED
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT IS EXPECTED THIS EVENING AND
TONIGHT, BRINGING A BATCH OF CONVECTION INTO THE NORTHERN
MIDLANDS AND PEE DEE REGION. THE HRRR CONTINUES TO HINT THAT
THIS AREA NORTH OF I-20 COULD BECOME A FOCUS FOR SLOW MOVING
(POTENTIALLY BACK-BUILDING) CONVECTION TONIGHT WHERE DEEP WARM
CLOUD LAYERS, BOUNDARY PARALLEL SHEAR/FLOW, AND MOISTURE NEAR
THE CLIMATOLOGICAL 99TH PERCENTILE SHOULD YIELD VERY EFFICIENT
RAINFALL. GIVEN LOW CAM CONSENSUS, CONFIDENCE REMAINS A BIT LOW,
BUT THIS SOLUTION FROM THE HRRR IS A REASONABLE WORST-CASE
SCENARIO, WHERE A SWATH OF 3"+ OF RAINFALL COULD BE POSSIBLE
INTO SUNDAY MORNING. DUE TO THIS, LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING COULD
BE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING INTO SUNDAY MORNING, MAINLY NORTH OF
I-20 TOWARD THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS AND THE PEE DEE.
SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY: THERE HAS NOT BEEN A SIGNIFICANT
CHANGE IN THE OUTLOOK FOR SUNDAY AS THE WEAK FRONT IS EXPECTED
TO STALL AND MEANDER THROUGH THE FA, BUT UPPER SUPPORT SHOULD
INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES IN. PWAT'S ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEAR 2.25" AND THE OVERALL THERMODYNAMIC, AND
KINEMATIC PROFILES SHOULD NOT BE ALL TOO DIFFERENT FROM TODAY.
THE MAIN SHIFT IN GUIDANCE IS TOWARD A LATER TIMING OF THE ONSET
OF WIDESPREAD RAIN/STORMS WITH A SLOWER MOVING SHORTWAVE. THIS
TIMING FAVORS LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY MONDAY FOR THE
WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN.
OVERALL, THIS ENVIRONMENT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN CONDUCIVE FOR
INSTANCES OF FLASH FLOODING, ESPECIALLY FOR ANY AREAS THAT SEE
HEAVY RAINFALL TONIGHT. THE 12Z HREF AND REFS CONTINUE TO
DISAGREE ON THE EXACT PLACEMENT OF A CORRIDOR OF HIGHER RAINFALL
AMOUNTS, BUT THE OVERALL TREND HAS BEEN A BIT FURTHER SOUTH,
MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR, WHERE THE FRONT
COULD STALL. IN THIS SWATH, LPMM PRODUCTS FROM BOTH HIGH-RES
ENSEMBLES SHOW AMOUNTS BETWEEN 2-5". TRENDS OF FRONTAL PLACEMENT
WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED, BUT ALL-IN-ALL, FAIRLY
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS EXPECTED INTO EARLY MONDAY, AND DUE TO
THE EFFICIENT NATURE OF THE RAINFALL AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
TRAINING, WPC HAS MAINTAINED THEIR SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2 OUT OF
4) FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS THE CWA.
AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
MOSTLY VFR TODAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS.
RESTRICTIONS INCREASING TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
SCATTERED SHOWERS VISIBLE ON RADAR AND MAY IMPACT THE TERMINALS
BRIEFLY THIS AFTERNOON, ALTHOUGH FORCING IS WEAK, LIMITING
CONVECTIVE COVERAGE. WHILE ISOLATED STORMS MAY IMPACT THE
COLUMBIA TERMINALS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS, THE REST OF THE
TERMINALS WILL LIKELY JUST DEAL WITH SHOWERS. TONIGHT A FRONT
WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH WITH INCREASED CHANCES
FOR MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN ALONG THE FRONT WHICH MAY LEAD TO
DECREASING VISIBILITIES. MORE NOTABLE RESTRICTIONS WILL BE
LOWERING CEILINGS WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE IN IFR CEILINGS,
ESPECIALLY FOR THE NORTHERN TERMINALS INTO TOMORROW AS
PRECIPITATION INDUCED CAD DEVELOPS. AS A RESULT, EXPECT
RESTRICTIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH 18Z TOMORROW.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING LIKELY
LEAD TO RESTRICTIONS. DRIER AIR FILTERING IN MONDAY.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...DH
AVIATION...96
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