063
FXUS62 KCAE 040532
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
132 AM EDT SUN OCT 4 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING CONTINUES TODAY. ANOTHER
PERIOD OF MORE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATER
TODAY THROUGH EARLY MONDAY AS A FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION.
THE FOCUS OF HEAVIER RAINFALL SHIFTS SLOWLY FROM THE NORTHERN
MIDLANDS THIS MORNING, SOUTHWARD INTO THE CENTRAL MIDLANDS
THROUGH THE DAY, THEN INTO THE CSRA AND SOUTHERN MIDLANDS LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED FOR 06Z
TAFS.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1. SLOW MOVING FRONT AND PLENTY OF MOISTURE WILL BRING
PERIODS OF RAIN, ALONG WITH AN INCREASED RISK FOR FLASH
FLOODING.
- 2. COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO MOVE IN MONDAY
AFTERNOON, LASTING THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: SLOW MOVING FRONT AND PLENTY OF MOISTURE WILL
BRING PERIODS OF RAIN, ALONG WITH AN INCREASED RISK FOR FLASH
FLOODING.
THIS MORNING THROUGH EARLY MONDAY: LITTLE CHANGE TO THE LATEST
FORECAST AT THIS TIME. SURFACE FRONT SITUATED ACROSS THE
NORTHERN MIDLANDS THIS SUNDAY MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY
PUSH SOUTHWARD TODAY AND INTO MONDAY MORNING. IN ADDITION, BOTH
THE 500 MB AND 850 MB WINDS REMAIN OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF
AN APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH, AT LEAST INTO LATER TONIGHT.
LATEST MOISTURE ANALYSIS STILL SHOWING PWAT VALUES BETWEEN 2.0
TO 2.3 INCHES THIS MORNING. WITH THE ABOVE WIND PATTERN STILL
BRINGING PLENTY OF GULF MOISTURE NORTHWARD TODAY INTO TONIGHT,
MOST OF THE GUIDANCE SHOWS PWATS ABOVE 2 INCHES REMAINING AT
LEAST INTO MONDAY MORNING. BEST SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVES THROUGH
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO TONIGHT, AND THIS SHOULD BE THE
MOST FAVORABLE TIME PERIOD FOR WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL
TO SETUP ACROSS THE AREA. OVERALL, THIS ENVIRONMENT IS EXPECTED
TO REMAIN CONDUCIVE FOR INSTANCES OF FLASH FLOODING. HEAVIEST
RAIN THIS MORNING SHOULD BE ALONG THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS CLOSE TO
THE FRONT, WITH THE AXIS THEN SLOWLY SHIFTING SOUTHWARD THIS
AFTERNOON AND INTO TONIGHT.
KEY MESSAGE 2: COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO MOVE IN
MONDAY AFTERNOON, LASTING THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK.
ONCE THE SURFACE FRONT PUSHES SOUTH OF THE AREA BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON, MUCH DRIER AIR WILL FINALLY BEGIN MOVING INTO THE
REGION FROM THE NORTH. PWAT VALUES BY MONDAY EVENING WILL BE
DROPPING TO BELOW 1.5 INCHES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA,
WHILE EVEN DRIER AIR WITH PWATS BELOW 0.75 INCHES WILL BE
PUSHING INTO THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. THAT DRIER
AIR WILL CONTINUE PUSHING SOUTHWARD MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
TEMPERATURES DROP SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MID-WEEK, THEN
RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK. RAIN CHANCES
NOT EXPECTED TO RETURN UNTIL POSSIBLY AT SOME POINT NEXT
WEEKEND.
AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
RESTRICTIONS INCREASING THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT, LASTING INTO
MONDAY.
WITH PLENTY OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION, AND A COLD
FRONT SLOWLY PUSHING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH
THE PERIOD, ALL GUIDANCE IS FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH BRINGING
IFR/LIFR CEILING RESTRICTIONS TO ALL TAF LOCATIONS EARLY THIS
MORNING. LATEST METARS ARE ALREADY SHOWING MANY AREAS ALREADY
DROPPING INTO IFR, WITH ONLY A FEW EXCEPTIONS. WILL GENERALLY BE
STARTING ALL TAF LOCATIONS OFF WITH SOME SORT OF EITHER MVFR OR IFR
CEILINGS, THEN BASICALLY EXPECTING ALL SITES TO BECOME IFR/LIFR
BY MORNING AND LASTING THROUGH THE END OF THE 24 HOURS TAF
PERIOD. PERIODS OF SHOWERS ARE ALSO EXPECTED, WITH SOME
VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS ALSO TOSSED IN WITH THE HEAVIER SHOWER
ACTIVITY. ALL IN ALL, WILL NOT BE A GOOD PERIOD FOR GENERAL
AVIATION FLYING.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS INTO MONDAY MORNING LIKELY LEAD TO
RESTRICTIONS. DRIER AIR BEGINS TO FILTER IN MONDAY AFTERNOON,
WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS POSSIBLE BY THAT TIME.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...73
AVIATION...73
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