962
FXUS62 KCAE 050512
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
112 AM EDT MON OCT 5 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
RAIN FINALLY ENDING BY THIS AFTERNOON, THEN DRIER CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED
FOR 06Z TAFS.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1. PERIODS OF RAIN CONTINUE THROUGH THIS MORNING, THEN DRYING
BEGINS THIS AFTERNOON.
- 2. TEMPERATURES JUST BELOW TO NEAR NORMAL ARE EXPECTED THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WITH MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: PERIODS OF RAIN CONTINUE THROUGH THIS MORNING,
THEN DRYING BEGINS THIS AFTERNOON.
SURFACE FRONT REMAINS SITUATED JUST SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA.
AIRMASS NORTH OF THIS FRONT REMAINS FAIRLY STABLE. DRIER AIR IS
SLOWLY ATTEMPTING TO PUSH INTO THE NORTHERN COUNTIES, WITH
CURRENT PWAT VALUES RUNNING AROUND 1.7 INCHES. MEANWHILE CLOSER
TO THE FRONT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AREA, PWAT VALUES ARE STILL
AROUND 2.1 INCHES. HEAVIER RAIN CHANCES THROUGH EARLY MORNING
WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN CWA, WITH LIGHTER RAINFALL
STILL EXPECTED TO OCCUR ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
MIDLANDS OF SC. AFTER SUNRISE, DRIER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH
SLOWLY IN FROM THE NORTH, BRINGING AN END TO THE RAINFALL ACROSS
THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS AND PEE DEE. REMAINDER OF THE CWA MAY
STILL SEE SOME LINGERING LIGHT RAINFALL THROUGH LATE MORNING
BEFORE THE DRYING TREND BEGINS TO KICK IN BY THE AFTERNOON.
KEY MESSAGE 2: TEMPERATURES JUST BELOW TO NEAR NORMAL ARE
EXPECTED THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WITH MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS.
PWAT VALUES DROP TO AROUND 0.50 INCHES BY TUESDAY AS DRIER
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE MID ATLANTIC. PERSISTENT
NORTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW INTO THE MID WEEK SHOULD KEEP
TEMPERATURES NEAR TO JUST BELOW NORMAL WITH DRY WEATHER
EXPECTED. WEAK SURFACE RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO THE
LATE WEEK BEFORE MOISTURE MAY GRADUALLY UPTICK TOWARD THE END OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD, POSSIBLY BRINGING BACK RAIN CHANCES EARLY
NEXT WEEKEND.
AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
RESTRICTIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS MORNING WITH GRADUAL
IMPROVEMENT LATER IN THE TAF PERIOD.
RA/-RA TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH MVFR/IFR RESTRICTIONS
EXPECTED. SOME VSBY REDUCTIONS MAY OCCUR IN WITH PERIODS OF RA,
ALONG WITH SOME LIFR CIGS, THE LATTER OF WHICH HAVE BEEN
BRIEFLY NOTED IN THE PAST HOUR AT OGB. KEPT TEMPOS FOR POTENTIAL
LIFR WITH LOWER CIGS BETWEEN 08Z-12Z AT CAE AND CUB. GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO HOLD ON TO AT LEAST MVFR CIGS THROUGH LATE MORNING,
PERHAPS INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. IMPROVEMENT THEN EXPECTED
LATE IN THE DAY AS DRIER AIR SLOWLY FILTERS INTO THE AREA AND
CIGS LIFT. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON
AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE VALID TAF PERIOD. WINDS THROUGH THE
PERIOD EITHER CALM OR LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT, BECOMING
NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY AT 3-6 KTS BY LATE MORNING
INTO THE AFTERNOON. WINDS SHOULD RETURN TO LIGHT OR CALM MONDAY
NIGHT.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR WITH DRIER CONDITIONS TO
PREVAIL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...73
AVIATION...SF/73
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