817
FXUS62 KCAE 051032
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
632 AM EDT MON OCT 5 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
RAIN FINALLY ENDING BY THIS AFTERNOON, THEN DRIER CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED
FOR 12Z TAFS.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1. PERIODS OF RAIN CONTINUE THROUGH THIS MORNING, THEN DRYING
BEGINS THIS AFTERNOON.
- 2. TEMPERATURES JUST BELOW TO NEAR NORMAL ARE EXPECTED THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WITH MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: PERIODS OF RAIN CONTINUE THROUGH THIS MORNING,
THEN DRYING BEGINS THIS AFTERNOON.
SURFACE FRONT REMAINS SITUATED JUST SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA.
AIRMASS NORTH OF THIS FRONT REMAINS FAIRLY STABLE. DRIER AIR IS
SLOWLY ATTEMPTING TO PUSH INTO THE NORTHERN COUNTIES, WITH
CURRENT PWAT VALUES RUNNING AROUND 1.6 INCHES. MEANWHILE CLOSER
TO THE FRONT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AREA, PWAT VALUES ARE STILL
AROUND 2.1 INCHES. RAINFALL ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES CLOSER
TO THE FRONT WILL REMAIN ON THE LIGHTER SIDE THIS MORNING.
AFTER SUNRISE, DRIER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SLOWLY IN FROM
THE NORTH, BRINGING AN END TO THE RAINFALL ACROSS THE NORTHERN
MIDLANDS AND PEE DEE. REMAINDER OF THE CWA MAY STILL SEE SOME
LINGERING LIGHT RAINFALL THROUGH LATE MORNING BEFORE THE DRYING
TREND BEGINS TO KICK IN BY THE AFTERNOON.
KEY MESSAGE 2: TEMPERATURES JUST BELOW TO NEAR NORMAL ARE
EXPECTED THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WITH MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS.
PWAT VALUES DROP TO AROUND 0.50 INCHES BY TUESDAY AS DRIER
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE MID ATLANTIC. PERSISTENT
NORTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW INTO THE MID WEEK SHOULD KEEP
TEMPERATURES NEAR TO JUST BELOW NORMAL WITH DRY WEATHER
EXPECTED. WEAK SURFACE RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO THE
LATE WEEK BEFORE MOISTURE MAY GRADUALLY UPTICK TOWARD THE END OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD, POSSIBLY BRINGING BACK RAIN CHANCES EARLY
NEXT WEEKEND.
AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
RESTRICTIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING WITH GRADUAL
IMPROVEMENT BY THIS AFTERNOON. A RETURN TO VFR SHOULD OCCUR AT
ALL LOCATIONS BY 00Z TONIGHT.
MAINLY LIGHT RAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MIDLANDS AND CSRA, WITH
LIMITED RAIN ACROSS THE CENTRAL MIDLANDS THIS MORNING. REGIONAL
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOWING A GOOD BIT OF IFR/LIFR CEILINGS IN
THE MIDLANDS AND CSRA, WITH VFR ATTEMPTING TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
NORTHERN MIDLANDS AS DRIER AIR BEGINS PUSHING IN FROM THE NORTH.
RESTRICTIONS SHOULD CONTINUE AT ALL TAF LOCATIONS THROUGH 18Z,
THEN BEGIN IMPROVING BACK TOWARDS VFR BY 00Z AT ALL SITES THIS
EVENING. SHOULD BE ENOUGH HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS LATE TONIGHT AND
INTO TUESDAY TO HELP LIMIT ANY WIDESPREAD VISIBILITY ISSUES, BUT
CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME DEVELOPMENT AT AGS/OGB LATE TONIGHT. WINDS
LIGHT AND VARIABLE EARLY THIS MORNING, THEN BECOMING MORE NORTH
TO NORTHEASTERLY AROUND 5 KNOTS BY LATE MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON. WINDS SHOULD RETURN TO LIGHT OR CALM MONDAY NIGHT.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR WITH DRIER CONDITIONS TO
PREVAIL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...73
AVIATION...73
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page