429
FXUS62 KCAE 051731
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
131 PM EDT MON OCT 5 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
MINIMAL CHANGE TO KEY MESSAGES. AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED FOR
18Z TAFS.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1. RAIN CLEARS OUT TODAY FOLLOWED BY COOL TEMPS INTO MID-
WEEK BEFORE A WARMING AND WETTER PATTERN DEVELOPS.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: RAIN CLEARS OUT TODAY FOLLOWED BY COOL TEMPS
INTO MID-WEEK BEFORE A WARMING AND WETTER PATTERN DEVELOPS INTO
THE WEEKEND.
THE SLOW MOVING FRONT WILL CLEAR THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND
ALONG WITH IT, ANY RESIDUAL RAIN CHANCES. SURFACE RIDGING THAN
BUILDS INTO THE REGION TUESDAY WITH PWAT'S DROPPING TO AROUND
0.50 INCHES AS THIS DRIER SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
MID ATLANTIC. PERSISTENT NORTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW INTO THE
MID WEEK SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES NEAR TO JUST BELOW NORMAL WITH
DRY WEATHER EXPECTED. WEAK SURFACE RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE INTO THE LATE WEEK ALONG WITH SOME BUILDING HEIGHTS AND
TEMPS RETURNING TO NEAR-ABOVE AVERAGE.
THE WEEKEND IS LOOKING MORE ACTIVE AS MOISTURE RETURNS ACROSS
THE REGION AS DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY DEVELOPS. THERE COULD END UP
BEING SOME TROPICAL CONNECTION WITHIN THIS FLOW WITH NHC NOW
OUTLOOKING THE SOUTHERN GULF WITH A 70% CHANCE OF DEVELOPMENT.
THIS WILL BE THE KEY COMPONENT TO WHETHER WE SEE APPRECIABLE
RAIN WITH THIS SETUP. WITHOUT ANY TROPICAL COMPONENT, A BROAD
SURFACE RIDGING WILL BUILD AND ALLOW FOR WIDESPREAD BUT WEAK
OVERRUNNING WITH NO NOTABLE SYNOPTIC FORCING (NOT DISSIMILAR TO
LAST WEEKEND...) AND THEREFORE A GENERALLY LOW QPF SETUP. WITH
A TROPICAL- SYNOPTIC SHORTWAVE TO HELP DRIVE BOTH ENHANCEMENT
OF PWAT'S AND OMEGA, THEN WE COULD SEE A NOTABLE RAIN EVENT
GIVEN THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY & OVERRUNNING FAVORABILITY IN PLACE.
GUIDANCE IS A MESS OF SOLUTIONS AT THIS POINT AND UNTIL A
STEADY STATE SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS IN THE GULF, UNCERTAINTY WILL
REMAIN VERY HIGH.
AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
PERIODIC MVFR CIG RESTRICTIONS CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON
BEFORE VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS EVENING INTO TUESDAY.
RAIN HAS CLEARED THE TAF SITES EARLY THIS AFTERNOON, WITH SOME
DRIER AIR PUSHING IN BEHIND THE FRONT FROM THE NORTHEAST.
CLEARING IS SEEN BACK TOWARD THE UPSTATE AND THIS SHOULD
CONTINUE TO WORK TOWARD THE AREA, BRINGING AN END TO LINGERING
CEILING RESTRICTIONS LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING
(AROUND 21-00Z). WINDS SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT OUT OF THE NORTHEAST
THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. OVERNIGHT, DRIER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO
STREAM INTO THE REGION WITH PARTLY SKIES THANKS TO PASSING
CIRRUS. DESPITE THE DRIER AIR, CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW PATCHY
LOCATIONS WITH FOG (MAINLY AGS/OGB) NEAR DAYBREAK TUESDAY.
CONFIDENCE IN THIS REMAINS TOO LOW TO ADD IN THE TAF AT THE
MOMENT. VFR CONDITIONS THEN LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF
THE TAF PERIOD BUT NORTHEASTERLY WINDS PICK UP TOWARD 10-12 KTS
TUESDAY MORNING WHERE ISOLATED GUSTS NEARING 20 KTS COULD BE
POSSIBLE.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED INTO
THE MID TO LATE WEEK WITH DRIER AIR IN PLACE.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...42
AVIATION...DH
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