282
FXUS62 KCAE 060525
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
125 AM EDT TUE OCT 6 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
UPDATES TO KEY MESSAGES. AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED FOR 06Z
TAFS.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1. SOME PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT FOLLOWED BY COOLER
TEMPS INTO MID-WEEK. WARMING AND WETTER PATTERN DEVELOPS INTO
THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: SOME PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT FOLLOWED BY
COOLER TEMPS INTO MID-WEEK. WARMING AND WETTER PATTERN DEVELOPS
INTO THE WEEKEND.
RECENT SATELLITE OBS SHOW THE UPPER-LEVEL CLOUD DECK CLEARING
OVER THE REGION TONIGHT AS MID/UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE PUSHES
EASTWARD OFF THE COAST. WITH LIGHT TO CALM WINDS, SOME PATCHY
FOG HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS AND ALONG A FEW
RIVER VALLEYS (SUCH AS AGS), AND MAY BUILD ACROSS MUCH OF THE
FA AND DISSIPATE BY MID-MORNING. PLEASANT AUTUMN WEATHER WITH A
DRIER SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC WILL BUILD
INTO THE REGION TODAY, WITH PWATS DROPPING TO AROUND 0.50
INCHES. PERSISTENT NORTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW INTO THE MID-
WEEK SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES NEAR TO JUST BELOW NORMAL WITH DRY
WEATHER EXPECTED. WEAK SURFACE RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
INTO THE LATE WEEK ALONG WITH SOME BUILDING HEIGHTS AND TEMPS
RETURNING TO NEAR-ABOVE AVERAGE.
ATTENTION TURNS TO A MORE ACTIVE WEEKEND AS MOISTURE RETURNS
ACROSS THE REGION WITH SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW ALOFT.
ALTHOUGH GUIDANCE HAS STRUGGLED WITH THE TIMING OF 92L,
CURRENTLY IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AND NOW AT 80% PROBS OF
DEVELOPMENT IN THE NEXT 7 DAYS PER THE NHC, CONFIDENCE IS
INCREASING IN A TROPICAL CONNECTION TO THIS FLOW, WITH 18Z RUN
OF THE ECMWF JOINING THE GFS IN DEVELOPING IT INTO A TC AND
TRACKING NORTH INTO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST BY THIS WEEKEND OR
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL BE THE KEY COMPONENT TO WHETHER WE
SEE APPRECIABLE RAIN WITH THIS SETUP. WITHOUT ANY TROPICAL
COMPONENT, A BROAD SURFACE RIDGING WITH A WEDGE SETUP WILL BUILD
AND ALLOW FOR WIDESPREAD BUT WEAK OVERRUNNING WITH WEAK
SYNOPTIC FORCING (NOT DISSIMILAR TO LAST WEEKEND...) AND
THEREFORE A GENERALLY LOW QPF SETUP. WITH A TROPICAL-SYNOPTIC
SHORTWAVE TO HELP DRIVE BOTH ENHANCEMENT OF PWATS AND OMEGA, A
MORE NOTABLE RAIN EVENT WOULD BE POSSIBLE GIVEN THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY & OVERRUNNING FAVORABILITY IN PLACE. EARLY
DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE RUNS HAVE SIGNALED THAT
ENHANCED PRECIP TOTALS WOULD BE MOST FAVORED ALONG THE GA/SC
COAST WITH INTERACTION WITH A COASTAL FRONT UNDER THIS SETUP.
DESPITE SOME INCREASING CONFIDENCE THIS EVENING, SOLUTIONS
REMAIN MESSY AT THIS POINT AND UNTIL A STEADY STATE SURFACE LOW
DEVELOPS IN THE GULF, UNCERTAINTY WILL REMAIN HIGH WITH THIS
SETUP.
AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
MAINLY HIGH BROKEN HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS OVERNIGHT. SHOULD SEE
SOME THINNING AND EVENTUAL CLEARING OF THESE CLOUDS TOWARDS
MORNING. WITH SOME LINGERING LOW-LEVEL/SURFACE MOISTURE STILL
AROUND FROM PAST RAINFALL, CAN NOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT SOME LOW
STRATUS AND/OR FOG DEVELOPMENT ACROSS TAF LOCATIONS EARLY THIS
MORNING THROUGH SUNRISE. SATELLITE DOES SHOW SOME STRATUS ACROSS
THE COASTAL PLAIN EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA, GENERALLY IN A FEW
AREAS THAT HAVE SEEN PARTIAL CLEARING OF HIGH CLOUDS. FOR NOW,
NOT CONFIDENT WE WILL SEE COMPLETE CLEARING OF CLOUDS BY
MORNING, AND HAVE HELD OFF ON INTRODUCING ANY RESTRICTIONS AT
THIS TIME. HOWEVER, DID AT LEAST PLACE MENTION OF SOME SCATTERED
LOW CLOUDS AFTER 08Z THROUGH 15Z TO SHOW A LEAST SOME POTENTIAL
FOR DEVELOPMENT. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THROUGH SUNRISE AND
AMEND AS NECESSARY IF SATELLITE AND METARS BEGIN TO INDICATE
MORE WIDESPREAD DEVELOPMENT OF LOW CLOUDS/FOG. WINDS OVERNIGHT
WILL BE LIGHT, THEN PICK UP OUT OF THE EAST/NORTHEAST AROUND 10
KNOTS BY 15Z. A FEW GUSTS UP TO 15 KNOTS CAN NOT BE RULED OUT
THROUGH THE DAY BEFORE WINDS DIMINISH PRIOR TO SUNSET.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED INTO
THE MID TO LATE WEEK WITH DRIER AIR IN PLACE. RESTRICTIONS MAY
BECOME POSSIBLE BY THE WEEKEND.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...23/42
AVIATION...73
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