462
FXUS62 KCAE 101303
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
903 AM EDT SAT OCT 10 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED FOR 12Z TAFS.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1. ISAIAS CONTINUES TO MOVE INLAND WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN,
TORNADO THREAT AND GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED FOR OUR AREA INTO
TONIGHT.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: ISAIAS CONTINUES TO MOVE INLAND WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN, TORNADO
THREAT AND GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED FOR OUR AREA INTO TONIGHT.
AS EXPECTED, PWATS HAVE INCREASED EARLY THIS MORNING WITH A TIGHT
GRADIENT OVER THE AREA WITH PWATS GREATER THAN 2 INCHES TO THE SOUTH
AND INCREASING OVER THE FORECAST AREA. WHILE RAINFALL HAS MOVED INTO
THE AREA, IT HAS REMAINED LIGHT AND IN SOME SPOTS TO THE NORTH IS
NOT ACTUALLY REACHING THE GROUND YET WITH 5 TO 10 DEGREE DEW POINT
DEPRESSIONS. RAIN WILL LIKELY BE RELATIVELY LIGHT THROUGH MUCH OF
THE MORNING WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT LEADING TO WIDESPREAD RAIN WITH
GENERALLY WEAK RAIN RATES. AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD THROUGH
INTO THE FORECAST AREA, HI RESOLUTION GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO FAVOR
SURFACE DESTABILIZATION IN THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA
THIS AFTERNOON. THIS GENERALLY FAVORS MORE NARROW BANDING OF
CONVECTIVE PRECIP WHICH GUIDANCE APPEARS TO BE CONVERGING ON, EVEN
THE GLOBAL MODELS WHICH WERE PREVIOUSLY FAVORING A MORE BROAD BRUSH
APPROACH. STILL PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE LOCATION OF THE
HEAVIEST RAIN BANDS SO HAVE EXPANDED THE FLOOD WATCH TO INCLUDE MORE
OF THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA WHERE HIGHEST
CONFIDENCE IN MODERATE DESTABILIZATION REMAINS AND POTENTIAL FOR
BANDS EXCEEDING 3 INCHES AND LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING. WARM
ADVECTION INTO TONIGHT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
POST-TROPICAL TRANSITION OF ISAIAS WILL LEAD TO LINGERING
CONVECTION , ALTHOUGH IT SHOULD BE MOVING AT A FAIRLY FAST PACE
FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN EXTENDED
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT, HOWEVER, TO ACCOUNT FOR ANY RAINFALL
THAT FALLS IN FLOOD SENSITIVE AREAS.
THE TORNADO THREAT REMAINS ESSENTIALLY UNCHANGED WITH THIS CYCLE
WITH NEARLY IDENTICAL SLIGHT RISK FROM SPC FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
THE FORECAST AREA. KCAE VAD WIND PROFILE ALREADY SHOWS STRONG LOW
LEVEL SHEAR/SRH (SFC TO 1 KM SHEAR 26 KTS, SFC TO 1 KM SRH 268
M2S-2). WHILE THE AREA REMAINS NORTH OF THE FRONT, AS ISAIAS'
CIRCULATION LIFTS NORTHWARD, THE AFORMENTIONED THERMAL GRADIENT
IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTHWARD AS WELL. THE TIMING OF THIS SHOULD
BE SUCH THAT IT OCCURS AS THE BEST MOISTURE TRANSPORT
APPROACHES BEHIND THE INITIAL WARM FRONT, WHICH COULD CREATE A
SCENARIO ON SATURDAY NIGHT THAT WE SEE LOW-TOPPED SUPERCELLS
DEVELOP IN A HIGHLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. LCLS WILL BE QUITE LOW,
AND WE TYPICALLY DON'T NEED MUCH MORE THAN A SURFACE DEWPOINT
OF 70F TO HAVE SOME TROPICAL TORS DEVELOP. REFS AND HREF MEMBERS
CONTINUE TO FAVOR SUFFICIENT DESTABILIZATION FOR CONVECTION TO
DEVELOP IN A VERY FAVORABLE SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. WILL NEED TO
MONITOR DEVELOPING STORMS SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT. HAVE MULTIPLE WAYS TO RECEIVE WARNINGS ON SATURDAY NIGHT!
WINDS ARE THE OTHER THREAT BUT LIKELY THE LEAST IMPACTFUL. SOME
GUSTS OVER 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED IN THE WESTERN MIDLANDS AND AS A
RESULT, A WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED TO COVER THIS POTENTIAL
THROUGHOUT SATURDAY. OTHERWISE, IT SHOULD JUST BE BREEZY ACROSS MUCH
OF THE AREA, WITH GUSTS OF 25-35 MPH POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY SATURDAY
MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON.
AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
SCATTERED LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN HAS OVERSPREAD THE REGION WITH
A MIX OF IFR AND MVFR CEILINGS AND PERIODS OF REDUCED
VISIBILITIES. WINDS REMAIN OUT OF THE NORTHEAST AROUND 10-15 KTS
AND GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE CONTINUING THROUGH
THE MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON UNTIL AROUND 18-21Z. A FEW
GUSTS UP TO 30 KTS COULD BE POSSIBLE AT THE AUGUSTA TERMINALS. A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTHWARD THROUGH THE DAY
AND THIS COULD SHIFT WINDS TO BECOME MORE SOUTHEASTERLY BY THE
EVENING. SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS SHOULD CONTINUE
MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD, THOUGH SOME THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
COULD BE POSSIBLE MAINLY AFTER 18Z, BRING ADDITIONAL PERIODS OF
VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS. WIDESPREAD IFR TO MVFR CEILINGS SHOULD
CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY AND OVERNIGHT, WHERE PERIODS LIFR
STRATUS COULD BE POSSIBLE.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...PERIODS OF RAIN CONTINUES INTO
SUNDAY, LEADING TO ONGOING RESTRICTIONS. CONDITIONS BEGIN
IMPROVING LATER ON SUNDAY AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR SCZ018-025.
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR SCZ018-025-030-035-041-
135>137.
LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR SCZ016-
020>022-026>031-035-037-038-041-115-116-135>137.
GA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR GAZ040-063>065-
077.
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR GAZ040-063>065-077.
DISCUSSION...96
AVIATION...DH
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