479
FXUS62 KCAE 120001
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
801 PM EDT SUN OCT 11 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
REMOVED KEY MESSAGE THAT DISCUSSED SUNDAY AFTERNOON'S WEATHER AS
WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED AND CLOUDS ARE CLEARING OUT. AVIATION
DISCUSSION UPDATED FOR 00Z TAFS.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1. DRY, WARM WEATHER FAVORED THROUGH AT LEAST MID-WEEK.
- 2. AN ABRUPT CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES IS POSSIBLE NEXT WEEKEND
BEHIND A LATE WEEK COLD FRONT.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: DRY, WARM WEATHER FAVORED THROUGH AT LEAST MID-
WEEK.
SKIES CONTINUE TO CLEAR OUT THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT AS DRY AIR
FILTERS IN BEHIND THE EXITING SYSTEM.
CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH IN THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN THROUGH MID-
WEEK. UPPER RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO BUILD OVER THE DEEP SOUTH ON
MONDAY, GRADUALLY SHIFTING EAST THROUGH THE WORK WEEK. THE UPPER
RIDGING, COMBINED WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND LOWER PWATS,
SHOULD PROMOTE AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER WITH WARMING
TEMPERATURES. THE MID-WEEK PERIOD COULD FEATURE NEAR RECORD
HIGHS TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
KEY MESSAGE 3: AN ABRUPT CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES IS POSSIBLE
NEXT WEEKEND BEHIND A LATE WEEK COLD FRONT.
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE SHOWS A DRY COLD FRONT APPROACH THE
SOUTHEASTERN US ON FRIDAY, USHERING IN A NOTICEABLY COOLER AIR
MASS. CURRENT BLENDED GUIDANCE FAVORS ANOTHER WARM AND DRY DAY
ON FRIDAY, ALBEIT SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN THE MID-WEEK PERIOD, WITH
A COLD FRONT PASSING THROUGH LATE FRIDAY OR FRIDAY NIGHT
WITHOUT MUCH FANFARE. A STRONG CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS
IN BEHIND THE FRONT FOR THE WEEKEND RESULTING IN NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL HIGHS AND BREEZY WINDS ON SATURDAY AND
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY. SINCE BLENDED GUIDANCE
DOES NOT INDICATE ANY RAIN WITH THE FRIDAY NIGHT FRONT, RAIN IS
NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED IN THE FA DURING THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS.
AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
CLOUD COVER CONTINUES TO CLEAR OUT OF THE REGION. OUTSIDE OF
SOME BRIEF MVFR CEILINGS TO START THE PERIOD, VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED. SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5-8 KTS ARE EXPECTED TO
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO SHIFT TO THE
NORTHWEST AFTER ABOUT 14Z, NEARING 10 KTS, FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE TAF PERIOD.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT AVIATION CONCERNS.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...7/29
AVIATION...23
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