316
FXUS62 KCAE 121042
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
642 AM EDT MON OCT 12 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
FORECAST HIGHS APPROACHING DAILY RECORDS WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY. AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED FOR 12Z TAFS.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1. DRY, WARM WEATHER FAVORED THROUGH THE WEEK.
- 2. STRONG COLD FRONT WILL USHER IN A MUCH COOLER AIR MASS FOR
THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: DRY, WARM WEATHER FAVORED THROUGH THE WEEK.
UPPER RIDGING WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS OVER
THE SOUTHEASTERN US. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WITH
HIGH PROBABILITY OF PWATS REMAINING BELOW AN INCH AND A QUARTER
THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK WILL LEAD TO DRY WEATHER. WARMING TREND
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MID-WEEK AND BY WEDNESDAY, ENSEMBLE MEANS
INDICATE THE CENTER OF THE RIDGE WILL BE NEAR THE AREA WITH
500MB HEIGHTS NEAR 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL. NAEFS
MEAN INDICATES THAT 850MB TEMPERATURES WILL EXCEED THE 99TH
PERCENTILE. THIS WILL LEAD TO NEAR RECORD HIGHS WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY WITH VERY LOW SPREAD IN TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE
AMONG BLENDED GUIDANCE MEMBERS LEADING TO A HIGH CONFIDENCE
TEMPERATURE FORECAST WITH A FRONT APPROACHING BY THE END OF THE
WEEK.
KEY MESSAGE 2: STRONG COLD FRONT WILL USHER IN A MUCH COOLER AIR
MASS FOR THE WEEKEND.
STRONG AGREEMENT AMONG ENSEMBLE MEMBERS IN THE PASSAGE OF A
FRONT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
WHILE BLENDED GUIDANCE GENERALLY FAVORS KEEPING THE AREA DRY,
WITH ONLY A MARGINAL INCREASE IN MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE FRONT,
AS THE LOCATION OF THE RIDGE WILL LIKELY PREVENT A SIGNIFICANT
SURGE OF MOISTURE FROM THE GULF REACHING THE AREA. BLENDED
GUIDANCE FAVORS A SUBSTANTIALLY COOLER AIR MASS MOVING IN FOR
THE WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES POTENTIALLY 20 DEGREES COOLER.
AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
EXPECT MAINLY CLEAR SKIES THROUGH TAF PERIOD AS DRIER AIR
CONTINUES TO FILTER INTO THE REGION. WINDS WILL SHIFT AROUND TO
THE NORTHWEST AND INCREASING TO NEAR 10 KTS LATE MORNING TO
EARLY AFTERNOON. A FEW GUSTS OF 15-20 KTS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE
AFTERNOON. WINDS THEN BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE LATE IN THE
PERIOD. LOW LEVEL DRY AIR CONTINUES TO FILTER IN TONIGHT WHICH
WILL PREVENT RESTRICTIONS.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT AVIATION CONCERNS.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...96
AVIATION...29/96
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