397
FXUS62 KCAE 161035
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
635 AM EDT FRI OCT 16 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED FOR 12Z TAFS.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1. NEAR-RECORD WARMTH FOR ONE MORE DAY.
- 2. A STRONG COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO PUSH THROUGH THE REGION
TONIGHT, USHERING IN COOLER WEATHER THIS WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: NEAR-RECORD WARMTH FOR ONE MORE DAY.
UPPER RIDGING LINGERS OVER THE SOUTHEAST FOR ONE MORE DAY TODAY
BEFORE A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES IN. THIS WILL KEEP NEAR RECORD
HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON WITH TEMPS MAXING OUT IN THE UPPER 80S TO
NEAR 90 DEGREES. A SIGNIFICANT COOL-DOWN IS ON THE WAY THIS
WEEKEND, AND WILL BE VERY NOTICEABLE!
KEY MESSAGE 2: A STRONG COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO PUSH THROUGH
THE REGION TONIGHT, USHERING IN COOLER WEATHER THIS WEEKEND.
OUR FIRST TRUE COLD FRONT OF THE SEASON IS ON TRACK FOR THIS
WEEKEND. GUIDANCE HAS SLOWED THE FRONT DOWN SLIGHTLY ON FRIDAY
NIGHT OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS; EVEN STILL, IT IS FORECAST
TO PASS THROUGH THE AREA BETWEEN FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY
MORNING. COOLER AIR IS FORECAST TO RUSH INTO THE AREA BEHIND
IT, WITH STRONG GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED AS WELL. THE TROUGH FORCING
ALL OF THIS HAS TRENDED MUCH SHARPER OVER THE LAST SEVERAL
DAYS, WITH GUIDANCE NOW SHOWING SOME FORM OF THE TROUGH CUTTING
OFF TO OUR EAST BY SATURDAY NIGHT OR SUNDAY. MODELS REMAIN A BIT
ALL OVER THE PLACE STILL WITH THE EVOLUTION AND EVENTUAL
PLACEMENT OF THE CUTOFF LOW. REGARDLESS, SOME SHOWERS ARE LIKELY
EARLY ON SATURDAY AS THE FRONT CLEARS, MOISTURE LAGS A BIT
BEHIND, AND INTENSE SYNOPTIC LIFT ALLOWS FOR SOME RAIN TO
DEVELOP. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE QUITE BREEZY ON SATURDAY AS
WELL. LATEST TIME/HEIGHT PLOTS SUGGEST THAT WIND GUSTS OF 30-40
MPH ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY AS A COOL AND DRY AIRMASS
RAPIDLY ADVECTS INTO THE AREA. WE WILL LIKELY NEED A LAKE WIND
ADVISORY AND BORDERING ON WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA, ESPECIALLY IF
THE COASTAL LOW DEVELOPS A BIT EARLIER AND CLOSER TO THE
CAROLINAS. SUNDAY WILL BE QUITE CHILLY WITH TEMPS IN THE LOW 60S
AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 40S. FROM THERE, A MODEST WARM UP
CLOSER TO NORMAL IS EXPECTED INTO NEXT WEEK. GIVEN THE PRESENCE
OF NORTHEASTERLY FLOW AND STRONG HIGH PRESSURE, COOL TEMPS AND
DRY AIR IS EXPECTED DEEP INTO NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF SOME FOG-STRATUS AT
TYPICAL LOCATIONS. FRONT ARRIVES LATE IN THE PERIOD.
SOME MORNING FOG-STRATUS HAS DEVELOPED IN LOCALIZED SPOTS THIS
MORNING WITH OGB THE MAIN IMPACT FOR TAF SITES. THIS WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE THROUGH 13Z WITH OTHER SITES POSSIBLY SEEING SOME
MIFG ISSUES AROUND SUNRISE. OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY
AFTER 13Z. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION ON
TOWARDS THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD BUT AN INCREASED PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS INCREASING TO AROUND
10 KNOTS AFTER 15Z WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS AROUND 17 KNOTS
LIKELY BY AFTERNOON PRECEDING THE FRONT. WINDS WILL SHIFT
AROUND 06Z AS THIS FRONT MOVES THROUGH WITH GUSTY WINDS
CONTINUING OVERNIGHT.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH, SOME
MORNING SHOWERS POSSIBLE SATURDAY ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS
CONTINUING FOR MUCH OF THE WEEKEND.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...ND
AVIATION...42
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