000
FXUS62 KCAE 171757
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
157 PM EDT SAT OCT 17 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
FORECAST REMAINS GENERALLY ON TRACK. A LAKE WIND ADVISORY
REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. AVIATION DISCUSSION
UPDATED FOR 18Z TAFS.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1. MUCH COOLER AIR AND BREEZY CONDITIONS FILTER IN BEHIND AN
EXITING COLD FRONT FOR THE REST OF THE WEEKEND. A LAKE WIND
ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: MUCH COOLER AIR AND BREEZY CONDITIONS FILTER IN BEHIND
AN EXITING COLD FRONT FOR THE REST OF THE WEEKEND. A LAKE WIND
ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING.
A STRONG COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED ITS WAY OFF SHORE THIS AFTERNOON.
BEHIND IT, STRONG HIGH PRESSURE IS FILTERING IN FROM THE
CENTRAL CONUS. AS A RESULT, A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT IS
SETTING UP, CAUSING BREEZY NORTHERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY WINDS FOR
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. EXPECT WINDS TO BE IN THE 10-15 MPH
RANGE AND GUSTS REACHING 25-30 MPH, WITH A FEW STRONGER GUSTS
POSSIBLE. ON SUNDAY, AN UPPER CUTOFF LOW AND ASSOCIATED OFFSHORE
SURFACE LOW ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP, KEEPING THE STRONG
PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE AREA. THIS IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN
ANOTHER DAY OF BREEZY WINDS, BUT A SHIFT TO MORE NORTHEASTERLY
FOR THE DAY. DUE TO THIS, A LAKE WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT
THROUGH 8 PM SUNDAY. IN ADDITION TO THE BREEZY WINDS, STRONG
COLD AIR ADVECTION BRINGS MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND AS TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO BE SEVERAL
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL, STAYING MAINLY IN THE 60S BOTH AFTERNOONS.
SOME OF THE LATEST GUIDANCE HAS BEEN COMING IN SLIGHTLY WARMER
FOR SUNDAY COMPARED TO PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS. OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE CHILLY FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR BOTH TONIGHT AND
SUNDAY NIGHT, DROPPING INTO THE LOWER 40S EACH NIGHT.
AFTER THE WEEKEND, SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO SETTLE
INTO THE AREA WITH UPPER RIDGING BUILDING SLIGHTLY OVERHEAD. AS
A RESULT, QUIET WEATHER IS IN STORE FOR THE WORKWEEK ALONG WITH
A WARMING TREND TO NEAR NORMAL BY LATE IN THE WEEK.
AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS WITH BREEZY NNE WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
DRIER AIR IS FILTERING IN BEHIND A COLD FRONT, SCOURING OUT
LOWER CLOUDS AND PUSHING RAIN TO THE EAST OF THE TERMINALS. VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH SCT TO BKN DECKS AROUND
4-5KFT. SKIES EXPECTED TO CLEAR THIS EVENING, REMAINING CLEAR
THROUGH THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS SHIFT A BIT MORE
NORTHEASTERLY TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW AND WHILE GUSTS LIKELY
SUBSIDE OVERNIGHT, EXPECT GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS ONCE AGAIN EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...PROBABILITY OF RESTRICTIONS
THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD IS LOW.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR SCZ016-018-
020>022-025>031-035-037-038-041-115-116-135>137.
GA...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR GAZ040-063>065-
077.
DISCUSSION...29
AVIATION...96
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