171
FXUS62 KCAE 212357
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
757 PM EDT WED OCT 21 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED FOR 00Z TAFS.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1. DRY WEATHER CONTINUES THE REMAINDER OF THIS WEEK AND INTO
THE WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR TO JUST BELOW NORMAL.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: DRY WEATHER CONTINUES THE REMAINDER OF THIS WEEK
AND INTO THE WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR TO JUST BELOW
NORMAL.
ANOTHER COOL NIGHT IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AS SOLID RADIATIONAL
COOLING CONDITIONS SETUP WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND CALM TO
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO DIP INTO THE MID
40S, THOUGH SPOTS IN THE LOWER 40S CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
OTHERWISE, ANOTHER FAIRLY RINSE AND REPEAT FORECAST IS EXPECTED
OVER THE COMING SEVERAL DAYS. AS WE HEAD INTO THE LATER PART OF
THE WORK WEEK, A DEEP TROUGH CURRENTLY OFF THE SOUTHERN CA
COAST, WILL SLOWLY WORK EASTWARD INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION,
FURTHER AMPLIFYING THE CENTRAL CONUS RIDGE AND TROUGHING OVER
THE EASTERN US. WHILE THIS UPPER LEVEL PATTERN SHOULD NOT BRING
ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE PATTERN WE ARE CURRENTLY IN, HIGH
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY CONTINUE TO TREND COOLER,
TOWARD THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S FRIDAY AND THE MID TO UPPER 60S
SATURDAY. LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, TEMPERATURES
LIKELY RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES AGAIN AS GLOBAL MODELS SHOW
THE RIDGE FINALLY BUILDING OVERHEAD WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WORKING INTO THE CAROLINAS. AS DISCUSSED THE PAST FEW DAYS, THE
CHANCE FOR MEANINGFUL RAINFALL REMAINS VERY LOW INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH MINIMAL MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO THE SOUTHEAST.
AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH
BROAD HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE AREA. WINDS
GENERALLY FAVOR A NORTHERLY DIRECTION, ALTHOUGH LIKELY REMAIN AT
5 KNOTS OR LESS FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD. WHILE THERE WAS A
MARGINAL INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TODAY, LIKELY NOT
SUFFICIENT ENOUGH FOR WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS OVERNIGHT. WOULD
NOT BE SURPRISED IF A VERY BRIEF PERIOD OF VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS AT AGS OR OGB BUT PROBABILITY GENERALLY REMAINS
LOW.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MOISTURE CREEPS BACK INTO THE AREA
THIS WEEKEND. SOME PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE IN THE
EXTENDED.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...DH/29
AVIATION...96
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