560
FXUS62 KCHS 161735
AFDCHS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1235 PM EST SAT NOV 16 2024
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA MID WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE GOING FORECAST. HOURLY
TEMPERATURES ARE RUNNING ABOUT 4 DEGREES WARMER AS COMPARED TO
YESTERDAY AT THIS TIME ALTHOUGH THERE WAS A BIT OF CLOUD COVER
AROUND IN THE MORNING. NONETHELESS, FORECAST MAX TEMPS HAVE BEEN
NUDGED UPWARD JUST A TICK BASED ON TRENDS. OTHERWISE, LOTS OF
SUNSHINE ANTICIPATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS AND SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING INTO THE REGION.
TONIGHT: QUIET CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH DRY HIGH PRESSURE
EXTENDING DOWN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. WE SHOULD SEE GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS, ALLOWING LOWS TO DIP INTO THE
LOW TO MID 40S IN MOST AREAS WITH THE TYPICAL COOLER INLAND
LOCATIONS FALLING INTO THE UPPER 30S.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
DEEP LAYERED HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN QUIET AND DRY WEATHER
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 60S TO
LOWER 70S ON SUNDAY GAINS A FEW DEGREES FOR MONDAY. LOWS WILL
MAINLY BE IN THE 40S AWAY FROM THE COAST SUNDAY NIGHT UNDER
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS, THEN A BIT MORE MILD IN THE
UPPER 40S TO MID 50S FOR MONDAY NIGHT.
SHORTWAVE ENERGY IS PROGGED TO PASS ACROSS THE REGION ON
TUESDAY. CONCURRENTLY, AN AXIS OF DEEPER MOISTURE BEGINS TO MOVE
INTO THE AREA, ESPECIALLY DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE DAY,
AND RAIN CHANCES WILL RETURN AS A RESULT. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY INLAND OF THE COAST DURING THE
DAY, THEN A BIT MORE COVERAGE OVER THE ENTIRE AREA OVERNIGHT.
HIGHS WILL PEAK IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
A DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH WILL SHIFT INTO THE EASTERN CONUS ON
WEDNESDAY. AT THE SURFACE, AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
STRENGTHEN OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES REGION, WITH AN
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT TO MOVE THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA LATER
WEDNESDAY OR WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SOME SHOWERS COULD LINGER THROUGH
THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY, BUT DEEPER MOISTURE SHIFTS OFF THE COAST
SO POPS ARE LIMITED TO THE 20- 30% RANGE. DRY FORECAST IS THEN
IN PLACE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. GUSTY WEST WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ON THURSDAY AND PERSIST INTO FRIDAY WITH
SEASONALLY STRONG SURFACE LOW STILL SPINNING OVER THE NORTHEAST.
OTHERWISE, A NOTABLE DROP IN TEMPERATURES FOR LATE WEEK
FOLLOWING FROPA.
AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT KCHS, KJZI, AND KSAV THROUGH 18Z
SUNDAY.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK: PREVAILING VFR. BRIEF FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
GUSTY WEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED ON THURSDAY.
MARINE
TODAY AND TONIGHT: WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE OUT OF THE NORTH
ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS, WITH SPEEDS PEAKING THIS MORNING IN THE
10-15 KNOT RANGE. OVERNIGHT, SPEEDS WILL DIMINISH MORE INTO THE
5-10 KNOT RANGE. SEAS WILL AVERAGE 2-4 FEET ACROSS THE
NEARSHORE WATERS, AND 4- 6 FEET ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS. A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE OUTER GEORGIA WATERS
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.
SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY: NO MARINE CONCERNS THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEAS SUBSIDING TO
LESS THAN 3 FEET. WINDS AND SEAS INCREASE ON WEDNESDAY, AND THEN
ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOLLOWING A COLD FRONT. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES ARE LIKELY FOR ALL WATERS, INCLUDING THE CHARLESTON
HARBOR, WHICH WILL PERSIST THROUGH THURSDAY. GUSTS TO NEAR GALE
FORCE ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF THE WATERS.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
UPCOMING MORNING HIGH TIDE (~8AM): DESPITE THE PRESENCE OF
NORTHERLY WINDS, WHICH HISTORICALLY ISN'T THE MOST IDEAL WIND
DIRECTION, TIDAL DEPARTURES AT BOTH CHARLESTON AND FORT PULASKI
HAVE EITHER HELD STEADY OR RISEN THROUGH LOW TIDE. THE MORNING
HIGH TIDE FEATURES THE PEAK ASTRONOMICAL TIDE FOR THIS
PARTICULAR STRETCH, SETTING THE STAGE FOR A SIGNIFICANT COASTAL
FLOODING EVENT. MODEL GUIDANCE IS QUITE IMPRESSIVE AT BOTH
SITES. AT CHARLESTON, THE 16/00Z ETSS DEPICTS 8.2 FT MLLW WHILE
BOTH THE GEFS AND NAEFS VERSION OF THE P- ETSS 50% EXCEEDANCE IS
ON THE ORDER OF 8.3-8.4 FT MLLW. FORT PULASKI IS EVEN MORE
IMPRESSIVE, WITH THE 16/00Z ETSS DEPICTING 10.4 FT MLLW AND THE
ENSEMBLES EVEN HIGHER AROUND 10.7 FT MLLW. THERE REMAINS SOME
APPREHENSION GIVEN THE LESS THAN IDEAL WIND SPEED/DIRECTION, BUT
GIVEN THE CONSISTENCY OF MODEL GUIDANCE WE ARE CONFIDENT ENOUGH
TO FORECAST MAJOR COASTAL FLOODING FOR THE ENTIRE SOUTHEAST
SC/GA COAST AND WILL UPGRADE THE EXISTING COASTAL FLOOD WATCH TO
A COASTAL FLOOD WARNING. WE HAVE BUMPED THE CHARLESTON FORECAST
UP TO 8.3 FT MLLW, AND HELD THE FORT PULASKI FORECAST AT 10.5
FT MLLW. FOR CONTEXT, ~8.3 FT MLLW AT CHARLESTON WOULD END UP IN
THE TOP 20 ALL TIME AND RIGHT AROUND THE TOP 10 FOR NON-
TROPICAL PEAK TIDES. AT FORT PULASKI, ~10.5 FT MLLW WOULD END UP
IN THE TOP 5 ALL TIME AND WOULD BE THE NEW HIGHEST NON-TROPICAL
PEAK TIDE ON RECORD. RECORDS AT CHARLESTON DATE BACK TO 1921
AND RECORDS AT FORT PULASKI DATE BACK TO 1935.
ELEVATED TIDE LEVELS WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK ALONG
THE ENTIRE SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA COAST,
WITH THE HIGHEST TIDE LEVELS OCCURRING WITH THE MORNING HIGH
TIDES. MINOR TO MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED
ALTHOUGH THERE IS A RISK FOR MAJOR COASTAL FLOOD LEVELS WITH THE
SUNDAY MORNING HIGH TIDE FOR CHARLESTON AND COASTAL COLLETON
COUNTIES.
CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST SUNDAY FOR AMZ374.
NEAR TERM...ADAM
SHORT TERM...ETM
LONG TERM...ETM
AVIATION...ADAM/ETM
MARINE...BSH/ETM
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