434
FXUS62 KCHS 162314
AFDCHS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
614 PM EST SAT NOV 16 2024
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA MID WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/
EARLY THIS EVENING, CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION WERE CLEAR WITH
LITTLE TO NO WIND. MOST AREAS HAVE ALREADY SEEN TEMPERATURES
RANGE BETWEEN THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET.
THE UPDATED FORECAST WILL FEATURE LOWER EVENING TEMPERATURES AND
CLEAR SKY.
TONIGHT: UPPER RIDGE AXIS EDGES OVER THE SOUTHEAST CONUS WHILE
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES ALIGNED ALONG THE APPALACHIANS.
THUS QUIET CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST UNDER CLEAR SKIES WITH
PERHAPS A TOUCH OF FOG TOWARD MORNING. A WEAKER PRESSURE
GRADIENT/1000 MB GEOSTROPHIC WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR BETTER
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS COMPARED TO LAST NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES WILL READILY DIP THROUGH THE 40S AND THERE WILL
LIKELY BE A SMATTERING OF UPPER 30S IN OUR NORMALLY COLDER
LOCATIONS.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
SUNDAY: RIDGING WILL PREVAIL ALOFT, WHILE A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE NEAR
THE SPINE OF THE APPALACHIANS EARLY ON, WILL BREAK INTO TWO CENTERS
FOR THE AFTERNOON. ONE CENTER HOLDS NEAR THE MOUNTAINS, WHILE THE
SECOND FORMS NEAR OUR COAST. OTHER THAN PATCHY FOG EARLY ON, PLENTY
OF SUNSHINE WILL PREVAIL, WITH JUST FEW-SCATTERED CIRRUS. A HUGE
DIURNAL SWING IN TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR, AND WITH AN EXPANSION OF
THE LOW LEVEL THICKNESS ABOUT 8 METERS FROM SATURDAY, HIGHS WILL
REACH 70-74F MOST COMMUNITIES. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE MUCH BERKELEY
AND NORTHERN CHARLESTON COUNTY, WHERE UPPER 60S WILL BE MORE COMMON.
SUNDAY NIGHT: DEEP LAYERED RIDGING WILL AGAIN PREVAIL, WITH MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT OR CALM WINDS. THIS WILL PROMOTE GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING, BUT WITHIN A SOUTHWESTERLY SYNOPTIC FLOW, AND
AIR MASS MODIFICATION, IT WON'T BE AS COLD AS THE PREVIOUS TWO
NIGHTS.
MONDAY: WHILE RIDGING DOES PERSIST IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS, THE
SURFACE HIGH PULLS OFFSHORE. CONSIDERABLE DRY AIR REMAINS ANCHORED
OVER THE IMMEDIATE VICINITY, AND LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES CLIMB
EVEN HIGHER. THIS WILL SUPPORT MAX TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE 70S
AWAY FROM SOME COASTAL SECTIONS, WHERE A LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW WILL
READINGS A BIT COOLER.
TUESDAY: RIDGING BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL PULL FURTHER
OFFSHORE, WHILE DEEP LOW PRESSURE PASSES INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY AND TOWARD THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. A MUCH WEAKER SECONDARY LOW
LOOKS TO FORM NEAR MIDDLE GULF COAST, WHICH LOOKS TO BE SPURRED BY
SOME MID LEVEL ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF TS SARA.
MOISTURE DOES INCREASE CONSIDERABLY, REACHING NEAR 1.5 INCHES WITHIN
A DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW THROUGHOUT THE TROPOSPHERE. THERE'LL BE AT
LEAST SOME RISK FOR RAINFALL, MAINLY SOUTH AND WEST IN CLOSER
PROXIMITY TO THE BETTER FORCING AND DEEPEST MOISTURE. WE HAVE SLIGHT
CHANCE/CHANCE POPS FOR NOW. PROVIDED THE COVERAGE OF RAIN ISN'T
GREATER, WARM ADVECTION WILL BOOST TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 70S.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
ONE SHORT WAVE PULLS AWAY EARLY TUESDAY NIGHT, WITH A SECOND, BUT
WEAKER ONE LATER AT NIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY. THIS IS ACCOMPANIED
BY A FRONTAL SURFACE AND WEAK SURFACE LOW THAT APPROACHES TUESDAY
NIGHT, AND IS FOLLOWED BY THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY.
WE'RE NOT TOTALLY CERTAIN ON HOW MUCH RAINS WILL OCCUR, ESPECIALLY
SINCE THERE ARE INDICATIONS THAT AN MCS COULD FORM TO OUR SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST, "ROBBING" US OF THE HIGHER AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL.
CONTINUED WARM CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY, BUT WITH THE FORMATION OF A
BROAD AND DEEP TROUGH ALOFT OVER THE EAST, MUCH COLDER AIR WILL
ENCOMPASS THE REGION THEREAFTER. EXPECT BELOW NORMAL VALUES
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY, WITH GUSTY DAYTIME WINDS THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY.
LAKE WINDS: COLD ADVECTION AND LARGE ISALLOBARIC PRESSURE CLIMBS
WILL LEAD TO THE POTENTIAL FOR A LAKE WIND ADVISORY ACROSS LAKE
MOULTRIE, AT LEAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY, AND PERHAPS EVEN
INTO THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY MORNING.
AVIATION /23Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT KCHS, KJZI, AND KSAV THROUGH 00Z
MONDAY.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK: PREVAILING VFR. BRIEF FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY IN
ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT. GUSTY WEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED ON THURSDAY.
MARINE
TONIGHT: NORTHERLY WINDS PERSIST WITH SPEEDS 10 KNOTS OR LESS.
SEAS WILL AVERAGE 2-4 FEET ACROSS THE NEARSHORE WATERS, AND 4-6
FEET ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN
EFFECT FOR THE OUTER GEORGIA WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT.
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY: QUIET MARINE CONDITIONS UNDER THE CONTROL OF
HIGH PRESSURE, WITH NO RISK FOR ANY RAINS OR SEA FOG DURING THIS
TIME.
TUESDAY NIGHT: HIGH PRESSURE PULLS FURTHER INTO THE ATLANTIC, WHILE
A FRONTAL SYSTEM BEGINS TO APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST. WINDS AND
SEAS WILL CLIMB, BUT DO REMAIN BELOW ANY ADVISORY CONDITIONS. AT
THIS TIME OUR FORECAST SHOWS JUST SCATTERED SHOWERS.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT: A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH
WEDNESDAY, FOLLOWED BY BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE THEREAFTER. COLD
ADVECTION AND LARGE ISALLOBARIC PRESSURE RISES BEHIND THE FRONT WILL
LEAD TO AT LEAST SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES, WITH SOME CHANCE FOR GALES.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
ELEVATED TIDE LEVELS WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK ALONG THE
ENTIRE SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA COAST, WITH
THE HIGHEST TIDE LEVELS OCCURRING WITH THE MORNING HIGH TIDES.
FOR CHARLESTON AND COASTAL COLLETON COUNTY: THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR
MAJOR FLOODING WITH THE MORNING HIGH TIDE SUNDAY. A COASTAL FLOOD
WATCH AND/OR WARNING COULD BE REQUIRED. AT LEAST MINOR FLOODING IS
EXPECTED MONDAY MORNING AND MAYBE AGAIN TUESDAY MORNING.
FOR THE REST OF THE COAST OUTSIDE OF TIDAL BERKELEY: MODERATE
FLOODING WILL LIKELY OCCUR WITH THE SUNDAY MORNING HIGH TIDE, WITH
MAYBE MINOR FLOODING MONDAY MORNING. A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY WILL
BE REQUIRED.
TIDAL BERKELEY: MINOR FLOODING COULD OCCUR SUNDAY MORNING. WE WILL
MONITOR FOR A POSSIBLE COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY.
CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST SUNDAY FOR AMZ374.
NEAR TERM...ADAM/NED
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...NED
MARINE...ADAM/BSH
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