330
FXUS62 KCHS 141559
AFDCHS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1059 AM EST TUE JAN 14 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEK. ANOTHER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL IMPACT THE
REGION THIS WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW PATTERN IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST CONUS TODAY. LARGE EXPANSE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS
CENTERED THROUGH THE CENTRAL CONUS AND EDGES THROUGH THE
SOUTHEAST REGION. ALONG WITH AMPLE DEEP LAYER DRY AIR (LESS THAN
0.2" PWAT), LOTS OF CLEAR SKIES DOMINATE THE REGION AND WILL DO
SO THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. DESPITE THE SUNSHINE, TEMPERATURES
WILL CONTINUE TO RUN BELOW NORMAL...TOPPING OUT LARGELY IN THE
MIDDLE 50S (53-58) AND A GOOD 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR MID
JANUARY.
THE PATTERN IS FORECAST TO CHANGE VERY LITTLE ACROSS THE REGION
TONIGHT. HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT HIGH AND MID LEVEL
CLOUDS SOURCED FROM A DISTURBANCE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL
STREAM ACROSS THE CWA TONIGHT. OVERALL, THE SKY SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY
CLEAR, WITH PERIODS OF PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS. A WEAK PRESSURE
GRADIENT SHOULD SUPPORT WINDS AROUND 5 MPH THROUGH MOST OF TONIGHT.
LOW TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM AROUND 30 DEGREES INLAND
TO THE MID 30S ALONG THE COAST.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE LOCAL FORECAST
AREA THROUGH THE WEEK. IN THE UPPER LEVELS ZONAL FLOW WILL BE
PRESENT ON WEDNESDAY, WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH SWINGING THROUGH ON
THURSDAY. IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN NW
THROUGH FRIDAY. THE MAIN FORECAST HIGHLIGHT OF THE PERIOD WILL BE
THE CONTINUATION OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THURSDAY. A
DRY FORECAST HAS BEEN MAINTAINED, WITH PARTLY SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED
EACH DAY. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY ARE FORECAST TO REACH INTO
THE MID 50S, WITH CONDITIONS WARMING SLIGHTLY ON FRIDAY ACROSS SE GA
TO AROUND 60. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE CHILLIEST ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT,
WITH UPPER 20S FAR INLAND AND 30S ELSEWHERE. SLIGHTLY WARMER
CONDITIONS ON THURSDAY NIGHT WITH 30S ACROSS THE REGION.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
AN ACTIVE PATTERN WILL ENSUE THIS WEEKEND AS BROAD TROUGHING
DEVELOPS OVER A MAJORITY OF THE CONUS AND A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IMPACT THE LOCAL REGION.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE FORECAST
AREA FRIDAY NIGHT, OVERSPREADING THE REGION SATURDAY AND LINGERING
INTO SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL RETURN TO NEAR
NORMAL VALUES. THE AFOREMENTIONED BROAD TROUGHING OVER THE CONUS
WILL DEEPEN THROUGH THE WEEKEND, USHERING IN ANOTHER CHILLY AIRMASS.
AFTER SUNDAY MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE, WITH A MULTITUDE OF DIFFERENT
SOLUTIONS. THE 00Z 1/14 GFS DEPICTS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST AND SHOWERS ON MONDAY AND POSSIBLY SOME WINTER
WEATHER IMPACTING THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER, THE 00Z
1/14 ECMWF DOES NOT DEPICT A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE COAST
AND CONDITIONS REMAINING DRY FROM MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. THE
00Z 1/14 CANADIAN SPLITS THE TWO AND SHOWS SHOWERS, BUT NO
WINTER PRECIP. REGARDLESS OF POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION, A COLD
AIRMASS WILL BE IN PLACE, WITH CONTINUED BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.
AVIATION /16Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
18Z TAFS: VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE TERMINALS THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN FROM THE WNW BETWEEN
5 TO 10 KTS.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK: PREVAILING VFR.
MARINE
THE MARINE ZONES WILL REMAIN ON THE EASTERN EDGE OF AN AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE TODAY AND TONIGHT. THIS PATTERN SHOULD MAINTAIN ENOUGH OF A
PRESSURE GRADIENT TO SUPPORT GUSTS INTO THE LOW 20 KTS ACROSS THE
OUTER GA WATERS THROUGH THE NEAR TERM PERIOD. ELSEWHERE, NNW WINDS
SHOULD FAVOR SPEEDS OF 10-15 KTS WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KTS. THE
CHARLESTON HARBOR SHOULD REMAIN A BIT LESS, GENERALLY AROUND 10 KTS.
SEAS ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM 2 TO 4 FT TODAY AND TONIGHT.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY: HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK ACROSS THE MARINE WATERS. NW WINDS ON WEDNESDAY
GENERALLY AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS WILL SURGE SLIGHTLY ON THURSDAY TO
AROUND 15 TO 20 KNOTS. THURSDAY NIGHT COULD FEATURE A SHORT TIME
PERIOD OF 25 KNOT GUSTS ACROSS THE CHARLESTON NEARSHORE WATERS AND
THE 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE GA WATERS, POSSIBLY NECESSITATING A SHORT-
LIVED SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY. NW WINDS ARE FORECAST TO WANE INTO FRIDAY
WITH 10 TO 15 KNOTS BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
THROUGH THE REGION THIS WEEKEND, HOWEVER WINDS ARE FORECAST TO
REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA. SEAS THROUGH FRIDAY ARE
FORECAST TO AVERAGE 2 TO 4 FT, INCREASING TO 3 TO 5 OVER THE WEEKEND
AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH.
CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
NEAR TERM...ADAM/NED
SHORT TERM...CPM
LONG TERM...CPM
AVIATION...CPM/NED
MARINE...CPM/NED
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