378
FXUS62 KCHS 142027
AFDCHS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
327 PM EST TUE JAN 14 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEK. ANOTHER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL IMPACT THE
REGION THIS WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW PATTERN IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC WITH A STRONG UPPER JET GOING OFF THE
ATLANTIC COAST. LARGE EXPANSE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS
CENTERED THROUGH THE CENTRAL CONUS AND EDGES THROUGH THE
SOUTHEAST REGION. ALONG WITH AMPLE DEEP LAYER DRY AIR (LESS THAN
0.2" PWAT), LOTS OF CLEAR SKIES DOMINATE THE REGION.
THE PATTERN IS FORECAST TO CHANGE VERY LITTLE ACROSS THE REGION
TONIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD DOWN INTO
THE DEEP SOUTH. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES EARLY, BUT THERE WILL BE A
CORRIDOR OF HIGH CLOUD COVER NOSING INTO THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA
OUT OF THE NORTHERN GULF REGION THAT MIGHT RESULT IN SOME PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES AT TIMES. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY DIP INTO
THE LOWER 30S FOR MOST AREAS INLAND...MID TO UPPER 30S RIGHT
ALONG THE COAST.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY: THE PERIOD WILL BEGIN WITH A DRY COLD
FRONT PASSING THROUGH THE AREA FROM NORTH TO SOUTH WEDNESDAY
MORNING, BRINGING A SHOT OF SOME COOLER AIR. THEN AS WE MOVE FROM
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL SPREAD IN FROM THE WEST AND
LIKELY BE POSITIONED RIGHT ON TOP OF THE AREA BY FRIDAY MORNING. DRY
WEATHER WILL PREVAIL, WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES LESS THAN HALF
AN INCH THROUGH THE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLEST ON
WEDNESDAY, WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S AND LOW 50S ACROSS
SOUTHEAST SC TO THE MID AND EVEN UPPER 50S FOR SOUTHEAST GA.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL BE THE WARMER DAYS, WITH HIGHS STILL BELOW
NORMAL BUT ACTUALLY RISING INTO THE UPPER 50S AND POSSIBLY EVEN LOW
60S FOR SOME AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-16 IN GA. LOWS WILL BE
COLDEST WEDNESDAY NIGHT, WITH WIDESPREAD UPPER 20S AND LOW 30S.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
A CONSIDERABLY MORE ACTIVE PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO COMMENCE THIS
WEEKEND WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
THE SUITE OF MODEL SOLUTIONS DEPICT A HEALTHY FRONTAL BAND PUSHING
INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST SATURDAY MORNING WITH PRECIPITATION
POTENTIAL LINGERING INTO SUNDAY MORNING. WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE POSSIBLE, WITH POTENTIAL TOTALS OF 0.75-
1.50" FOR THE ENTIRE WEEKEND. THEN BEHIND THIS FRONT, THERE IS
WIDESPREAD AGREEMENT THAT AN IMPRESSIVE ARCTIC HIGH WILL SPILL A
BITTERLY COLD AIRMASS ACROSS MUCH OF THE CONUS WITH HIGH
PROBABILITIES FOR WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE VERY END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WHERE
THERE IS INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN A WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION EVENT
IN ASSOCIATION WITH A COASTAL LOW TRACK, POTENTIALLY BEGINNING AS
EARLY AS TUESDAY. THIS EVENT WOULD BE UNFOLDING IN THE PRESENCE OF
THE ARCTIC AIRMASS NOTED ABOVE, YIELDING THE POTENTIAL FOR WINTER
WEATHER. MODEL GUIDANCE, BOTH OF THE DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE
VARIETY, SUGGESTS A THREAT OF WINTER WEATHER FOR THE FORECAST AREA
AND THE REGION AS A WHOLE. IT MUST BE STRESSED THAT CONSIDERABLE
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS, ESPECIALLY REGARDING SUCH IMPORTANT ITEMS AS
POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION TYPES, POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS, AND
SPECIFIC IMPACTED AREAS.
AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
18Z TAFS: VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE TERMINALS THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN FROM THE WNW BETWEEN
5 TO 10 KTS.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. A FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
BEGIN IMPACTING THE AREA SATURDAY, BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR
SHOWERS AND BRIEF PERIODS OF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS.
MARINE
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN INTO THE SOUTHEAST REGION
THROUGH TONIGHT. A TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE COASTAL
WATERS WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT GUSTS IN THE TEENS TO THE LOW
20 KT RANGE THROUGH THE NIGHT. CHARLESTON HARBOR SHOULD REMAIN
A BIT LESS, GENERALLY AROUND 10 KTS. SEAS WILL RANGE FROM 2 TO
4 FT TONIGHT.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY: MARINE CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE ON
WEDNESDAY AS WINDS DIMINISH. THE NEXT PERIOD OF STRONG WINDS WILL
COME THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT WHEN CONDITIONS COULD APPROACH
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS, ESPECIALLY IN THE CHARLESTON COUNTY
WATERS AND THE OUTER GA WATERS. FINALLY, A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
PASS THROUGH THE WATERS THIS WEEKEND. WINDS AND SEAS WILL INCREASE
SATURDAY FIRST IN SOUTHERLY AHEAD OF THE FRONT, FOLLOWED BY WESTERLY
FLOW BEHIND IT ON SUNDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS DON'T LOOK
PARTICULARLY LIKELY BUT CAN'T BE RULED OUT AT THIS TIME.
CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
NEAR TERM...ADAM/NED
SHORT TERM...BSH
LONG TERM...BSH
AVIATION...ADAM/BSH/NED
MARINE...ADAM/BSH/NED
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page