685
FXUS62 KCHS 152007
AFDCHS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
307 PM EST WED JAN 15 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEK. A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL IMPACT THE REGION THIS
WEEKEND. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM COULD IMPACT THE REGION
EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND OVER THE AREA TONIGHT AS SHORTWAVE
ENERGY DIGS INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. VARIOUS DEGREES
OF HIGH CLOUDS WILL SPREAD OVER THE AREA TONIGHT AS HIGH-LEVEL
MOISTURE STREAMS NORTHEAST OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE
BOUNDARY LAYER WILL LIKELY DECOUPLE QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET
RESULTING IN CALM/LIGHT WINDS, BUT WITH SOME HIGH CLOUDS
STREAMING THROUGH OVERNIGHT, THERE WILL BE SOME DISRUPTION TO
THE RADIATIVE PROCESS, ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. IT
STILL LOOKS TO BE A COLD NIGHT WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE MID
20S ACROSS NORTHERN PARTS OF DORCHESTER AND BERKELEY COUNTIES TO
THE UPPER 20S/LOWER 30S FOR REMAINING AREAS AWAY FROM THE COAST
WITH UPPER 30S/LOWER 40S AT THE BEACHES.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY: THIS WILL BE THE QUIET PART OF THE
PERIOD AS A DRY COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THURSDAY AND THURSDAY
NIGHT AND HIGH PRESSURE SPREAD IN FOR FRIDAY. PLENTY OF DRY AIR
WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY, AND WITH CLEAR SKIES WE WILL SEE
PLENTY OF SUN. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM UP TO NEAR NORMAL EACH
DAY, WITH SEASONAL LOWS OVERNIGHT THURSDAY.
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY: HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH OFF THE
COAST FRIDAY NIGHT AS A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS AND ORGANIZES
ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THERE IS GOOD MODEL
AGREEMENT THAT A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS WILL BEGIN PUSHING INTO
THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE WEST LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND IMPACT THE
ENTIRE AREA THROUGH THE DAY ON SATURDAY. IN FACT, PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES SURGE INTO THE 1.25- 1.50" RANGE WHICH WOULD BE
ABOVE THE 90TH PERCENTILE FOR THE DATE AND NEAR THE MAXIMUM
ACCORDING TO SPC'S SOUNDING CLIMATOLOGY. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE
FOR A WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT RAIN EVENT, WITH FORECAST RAINFALL
AMOUNTS IN THE 0.75-1.25" RANGE. RAIN CHANCES WILL TAPER OFF
FROM WEST TO EAST LATER IN THE DAY.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
WHILE THERE COULD BE A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS AROUND SUNDAY
MORNING, MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT SUNDAY WILL BE MOSTLY DRY
AND THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH OFFSHORE THROUGH THE EVENING. FOR
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT, COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE
REGION AND THE FORECAST IS DRY.
AS WE MOVE INTO TUESDAY AND BEYOND, THE FORECAST BECOMES
EXCEEDINGLY TRICKY AND ALSO POTENTIALLY VERY IMPACTFUL. MOST
MODEL SOLUTIONS BROADLY AGREE THAT WE WILL HAVE VERY COLD AIR
COINCIDENT WITH PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE PASSING BY TO THE SOUTH OR OFF THE COAST. VARIOUS
DETERMINISTIC MODELS AND ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO
HIGHLIGHT THE POTENTIAL FOR WINTER WEATHER ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA AS A RESULT. HOWEVER, CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY REMAINS
REGARDING THE TIMING OF PRECIPITATION, PRECIPITATION TYPES AND
AMOUNTS, AND SPECIFIC IMPACTED AREAS. ALL SCENARIOS ARE ON THE
TABLE, INCLUDING SEEING LITTLE TO NO PRECIPITATION AT ALL.
AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
15/18Z TAF DISCUSSION:
KCHS/KJZI/KSAV: VFR THROUGH NOON THURSDAY.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. A FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
BEGIN IMPACTING THE AREA SATURDAY, BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR
SHOWERS AND BRIEF PERIODS OF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS.
MARINE
TONIGHT: THERE ARE NO CONCERNS AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES INTO THE
REGION. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL AVERAGE LESS THAN 10 KT WITH SEAS 2
FT OR LESS.
THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY: THE PERIOD WILL BEGIN WITH A SURGE OF
WESTERLY AND/OR WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW THURSDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS COULD BRING A PERIOD OF SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY WINDS TO AT LEAST PORTIONS OF THE LOCAL WATERS, WITH
THE BEST CHANCES BEING THE CHARLESTON COUNTY WATERS AND THE
OUTER GA WATERS. CONDITIONS WILL TURN VERY QUIET FRIDAY
AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES INTO THE
AREA. SOUTHERLY AND SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE SATURDAY
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONT, WITH A STRONGER SURGE OF
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW BEHIND THE DEPARTING SYSTEM SUNDAY NIGHT.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES APPEAR MORE LIKELY DURING THIS TIME
PERIOD. SEAS WILL VARY QUITE A BIT ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST
PERIOD, BEING ELEVATED THURSDAY NIGHT THEN DECREASING
SIGNIFICANTLY FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE PASSES
THROUGH. THE HIGHEST SEAS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THE SYSTEM OVER
THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
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