863
FXUS62 KCHS 161915
AFDCHS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
215 PM EST SUN FEB 16 2025
SYNOPSIS
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL IMPACT THE AREA TODAY, FOLLOWED BY
HIGH PRESSURE FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN RETURN LATE WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
TODAY: THE SQUALL LINE HAS EXITED THE COAST WITH ONLY LIGHT
STRATIFORM RAIN REMAINING. THIS PRECIPITATION WILL EXIT THE
COAST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS WITH WINDS AGAIN PICKING BACK
UP AS CAA SETS IN BEHIND SURFACE COLD FRONT.
TONIGHT: DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA, WITH CLEAR TO MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH
TONIGHT. BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD SUPPORT NORTHWEST WINDS
BETWEEN 5 TO 10 MPH THROUGH MOST OF THE NIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES
ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM AROUND 30 INLAND TO THE MID TO UPPER
30S ACROSS THE COASTAL COUNTIES.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
MONDAY AND TUESDAY: AT THE SURFACE, COLD CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL
EXTEND SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN
U.S. INTO TUESDAY. QUASI-ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL KEEP THE FORECAST
RELATIVELY QUIET. SOME SEMBLANCE OF A COASTAL TROUGH LOOKS TO FORM
BY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING WHICH WILL INCREASE CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE
DAY. THE TROUGH SHARPENING LATER IN THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT COULD
RESULT IN SHOWERS OFFSHORE WHICH COULD THEN APPROACH THE COAST, BUT
FOR NOW IT LOOKS TO STAY DRY OVER LAND. HIGHS WILL ONLY REACH THE
MID TO UPPER 50S UNDER FULL SUN MONDAY, AND THEN REBOUND QUICKLY
TUESDAY TO NEAR NORMAL IN THE LOW TO MID 60S. MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE
COLD WITH MIN TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 30S INLAND AND LOW TO MID 40S
ALONG THE COAST. "WARMER" TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT; IN THE
LOW TO MID 40S INLAND AND LOW 50S ALONG THE COAST.
WEDNESDAY: THE AXIS OF AN UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS AND TOWARD THE EAST COAST. CYCLOGENESIS
ALONG THE GULF COAST WILL SPIN UP A SURFACE LOW WHICH IS PROGGED TO
MOVE OVER THE FL/GA BORDER BY THE AFTERNOON AND THEN LIFT NORTHEAST
ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST LATER IN THE EVENING. THIS WILL BRING A
ROUND OF WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TO THE AREA. LOOKS TO BE ANOTHER HIGH
SHEAR/LOW CAPE SCENARIO WITH LITTLE TO NO INSTABILITY PRESENT AND 50-
70 KT DEEP LAYER (0-6 KM) SHEAR. FOR NOW, LOW PROBABILITIES OF
THUNDER WILL KEEP ONLY MENTION OF SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF EXTREME SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND THE COASTAL WATERS.
OTHERWISE A DECENT AMOUNT OF RAINFALL COULD COME OF THIS SYSTEM, UP
TO 1 INCH, POSSIBLY MORE. HOWEVER, PLACEMENT OF THE LOW, IN ADDITION
TO HOW PROGRESSIVE THIS SYSTEM MOVES WILL LARGELY IMPACT RAINFALL
TOTALS. HIGHS WILL BE SOMEWHAT TRICKY TO PIN DOWN WITH A LARGE
TEMPERATURE GRADIENT IN PLACE. WE CURRENTLY HAVE LOWER 50S ACROSS
THE FAR INTERIOR TO UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S ALONG THE BEACHES AND
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
THE MAIN CONCERN FOR THIS PERIOD WILL BE THE VERY COLD/ARCTIC HIGH
PRESSURE THAT WILL QUICKLY FILTER IN THE WAKE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED
DEPARTING SURFACE LOW. MOST OF THE RAINFALL SHOULD MOVE OFFSHORE
WEDNESDAY EVENING; HOWEVER, SOME P-TYPE CONCERNS COULD BE PRESENT
WEDNESDAY NIGHT IF SHOWERS LINGER BEHIND THE LOW, BUT AS OF NOW
THOSE CONCERNS REMAIN NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. LOWS IN THE LOWER
TO MID 30S INLAND TO LOW 40S ALONG THE COAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT COULD
DROP AS LOW AS THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT. WILL NEED TO MONITOR THE POTENTIAL FOR A COLD WEATHER
ADVISORY (WIND CHILL 20F OR COLDER) THURSDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM COULD AFFECT THE AREA NEXT WEEKEND.
AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
THIS AFTERNOON: ALL TAF SITES ARE VFR THIS AFTERNOON AS THE LINE
OF SHOWERS (AND ISOLATED RUMBLES OF THUNDER) HAVE EXITED THE
COAST. STRATIFORM RAIN REMAINS ACROSS COASTAL SC/ GA AND IS
FORECAST TO EXIT THE COAST OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. A COLD
FRONT WILL THEN SWEEP ACROSS THE TAF SITES WITH WINDS TURNING
FROM THE WEST WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KT.
TONIGHT: VFR. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY BUILD INTO THE REGION
FROM THE NORTHWEST WITH WIND GUSTS BECOMING MORE INFREQUENT
THROUGH THE NIGHT. TAKING A LOOK AT FORECAST SOUNDINGS, SHOWS A
PBL NOT FULL DECOUPLING THOUGH THANKS TO THE STRONG CAA. SO TAF
SITES WILL LIKELY NOT LOSE THE WIND GUSTS COMPLETELY THOUGH THE
NIGHT.
MONDAY: VFR. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD WITH WINDS
SLACKENING TO BELOW 10 KT. NO CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK: GENERALLY VFR TO PREVAIL THROUGH EARLY
TUESDAY NIGHT. A STORM SYSTEM COULD IMPACT THE AREA WEDNESDAY WITH
FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE.
MARINE
THIS AFTERNOON: WINDS HAVE FALLEN BELOW GALE CRITERIA FOR THE
GA WATERS AS WELL AS AMZ352 AS THE LINE OF SHOWERS HAS SINCE
EXITED THE REGION. THESE ZONES HAVE BEEN TRANSITIONED TO A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY (ALONG WITH THE CHARLESTON HARBOR). THE
CHARLESTON ADJACENT WATERS IS THE ONLY ZONE LEFT WITH A GALE
WARNING. THIS WILL LIKELY BE ABLE TO BE TRANSITIONED TO A SMALL
CRAFT BY THIS EVENING.
TONIGHT: A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE WATERS WITH
WINDS VEERING FROM THE NORTHWEST 20 TO 25 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 30
KT AND SEAS 6 TO 9 FT. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM
THE NORTHWEST WITH THE GRADIENT STARTING TO SLOWLY RELAX. AS
THIS OCCURS WINDS WILL SLOWLY FALL, BUT REMAIN ABOVE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CRITERIA.
MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY: HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION
THROUGH TUESDAY WITH NO HIGHLIGHTS/CONCERNS EXPECTED. WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE OUT OF THE NORTHEAST AROUND 10 KT OR LESS AND SEAS 2-4
FT DROPPING TO 2-3 FT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE WATERS
TUESDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF A PROGRESSIVE SURFACE LOW MOVING TOWARD THE
SOUTHEAST COAST. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE, WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY NIGHT FOR
25 KT GUSTS AND 4-6 FT SEAS. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE FRIDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES ACROSS THE REGION.
HIGH SURF: GIVEN THAT SEAS ARE 6-10 FEET ON THE NEARSHORE
WATERS, A HIGH SURF ADVISORY FOR CHARLESTON COUNTY REMAINS IN
EFFECT. ELSEWHERE, THE FLOW IS MORE PARALLEL TO THE COAST.
CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR GAZ087-088.
SC...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR SCZ040-042>045-
047>052.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR SCZ050.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ330.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ350-352-354-
374.
NEAR TERM...HAINES/NED
SHORT TERM...BRS
LONG TERM...BRS
AVIATION...HAINES
MARINE...BRS/HAINES
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