110
FXUS62 KCHS 162324
AFDCHS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
624 PM EST SUN FEB 16 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN RETURN LATE WEEK.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/
TONIGHT: A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL PUSH OFFSHORE THIS EVENING,
AS A COLDER AND DRIER AIR MASS ASSOCIATED WITH HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED IN THE GREAT PLAINS CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE AREA.
WINDS WILL BE GUSTY AT TIMES (UP TO 25 KT) INITIALLY, BUT AS THE
GRADIENT SLOWLY RELAXES THROUGH THE NIGHT, THE GUSTS WILL BECOME
MORE AND MORE TRANSIENT, BEFORE COMPLETELY STOPPING OVERNIGHT.
THE PBL DOESN'T FULLY DECOUPLE THOUGH, SO WINDS WILL NOT GO CALM
TONIGHT (DUE TO THE CAA). EXPECT LOW TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN
THE MID AND UPPER 30S, EXCEPT LOWER 30S FAR INLAND. THIS WILL BE
ABOUT 25-30F COLDER THAN IT WAS EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.
LAKE WINDS: COLDER AIR MOVING ATOP THE RELATIVELY WARMER WATERS
OF LAKE MOULTRIE WILL YIELD A LAKE WIND ADVISORY. GIVEN STEADY
PRESSURE RISES AND MUCH OF THE 25-30 KT GEOSTROPHIC WINDS AT
1000 MB TO MIX DOWN, WE HAVE W AND NW WINDS OF 15-20 KT WITH
GUSTS OF 25 KT TO OCCUR.
SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXPAND ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
DEEP DRY AIR WILL BE IN PLACE, MAINTAINING A RAIN-FREE FORECAST.
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED FOR MONDAY THEN THERE WILL BE AN
INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER ON TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM.
SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY COULD START TO DEVELOP LATE TUESDAY NIGHT, BUT
THE BULK OF PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED BEYOND DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY.
COOLER HIGHS IN THE MID 50S MONDAY WILL MODERATE CLOSER TO NORMAL
FOR TUESDAY. SOLID RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS MONDAY NIGHT WILL
BRING LOWS DOWN TO THE 30-35F RANGE MOST LOCATIONS INLAND OF THE
COAST, THEN MORE MILD IN THE 40S TUESDAY NIGHT UNDER CLOUDY SKIES.
WEDNESDAY WILL BE THE MOST ACTIVE DAY OF THE SET. LOW PRESSURE IS
EXPECTED TO ORGANIZE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF REGION THEN TRACK
NORTHEAST NEAR OR ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST ON WEDNESDAY, BEFORE
PULLING AWAY FROM THE LOCAL AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THERE IS AMPLE
LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT WITH THE AREA LOCATED IN THE
FAVORABLE RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF THE UPPER JET AND MID LEVEL ENERGY
PASSING ACROSS THE REGION. PWATS SURGE WELL ABOVE CLIMATOLOGICAL
NORMS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR, WITH MODELS PROGS SHOWING VALUES
APPROACHING OR EVEN EXCEEDING 1.3 INCHES. THIS SET-UP WILL ALLOW
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA. AREA-WIDE RAINFALL
AMOUNTS LOOK TO AVERAGE IN THE 1-1.5 INCH RANGE, WHICH SHOULD NOT
POSE MUCH OF A FLOODING RISK. THERE IS SOME DEPENDENCY ON TRACK OF
THE LOW AS TO THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY (OR LACK THEREOF) THAT WILL
DEVELOP, BUT CURRENTLY MODEL PROGS ARE RATHER UNIMPRESSIVE SO NO
MENTION OF THUNDER IS IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. TEMPERATURES
WILL LIKELY BE A CHALLENGE WITH A POTENTIALLY NOTABLE GRADIENT
ACROSS THE AREA. FAR INLAND LOCATIONS COULD REMAIN ON THE COOL SIDE,
TOPPING OUT IN THE UPPER 40S, WHILE CLOSER TO THE COAST MAY REACH
THE UPPER 50S, TO PERHAPS LOWER 60S IN COASTAL SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.
COLDER AND DRIER AIR WILL ADVECT INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS
THE LOW LIFTS AWAY. AT THIS POINT, THE THREAT FOR ANY NON-LIQUID
PRECIPITATION LOOKS PRETTY LOW AS IT APPEARS TO BE THE CLASSIC CASE
OF COLDER TEMPERATURES CHASING THE DEEPER MOISTURE.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
CHILLY AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD IN FOR LATE WEEK.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW CLIMATOLOGY - BY AROUND 10-15
DEGREES. IT WILL BE COLDEST THURSDAY NIGHT WHEN LOWS DIP WELL INTO
THE 20S ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST, AND
THERE REMAINS POTENTIAL FOR SOME AREAS TO REACH COLD WEATHER
ADVISORY CRITERIA (WIND CHILL 20F OR COLDER). OTHERWISE, RAIN-FREE
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY. THERE ARE HINTS THAT A WEAK
COASTAL TROUGH COULD DEVELOP ON SATURDAY AND PERHAPS BRING A
FEW SHOWERS. POPS ARE NO HIGHER THAN 20%.
AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
KCHS/KJZI/KSAV: VFR WILL PREVAIL WITH THE 00Z TAFS. STILL SOME
WIND GUSTS TONIGHT AS COLDER AIR MOVES IN, BEFORE WINDS EASE
OFF LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK: VFR WILL PREVAIL THROUGH TUESDAY. FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS LOW
PRESSURE PASSES ACROSS THE REGION. VFR IS EXPECTED TO RETURN
THEREAFTER.
MARINE
TONIGHT: A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE WATERS
WITH WINDS VEERING TO THE NORTHWEST 20 TO 25 KT WITH GUSTS UP
TO 30 KT, AND SEAS 6 TO 9 FT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE IN
EFFECT FOR ALL WATERS. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM
THE NORTHWEST WITH THE GRADIENT STARTING TO SLOWLY RELAX VERY
LATE. AS THIS OCCURS WINDS WILL SLOWLY FALL.
MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY: WINDS AND SEAS WILL SUBSIDE THROUGH THE DAY
ON MONDAY, WITH ALL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES EXPECTED TO BE DOWN BY
EARLY AFTERNOON. WINDS GRADUALLY TURN FROM THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST BY
TUESDAY, WITH SPEEDS SETTLING BELOW 15 KNOTS AND SEAS 2-3 FEET. THE
NEXT TIME PERIOD OF CONCERN IS WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS LOW
PRESSURE PASSES ACROSS THE REGION, THOUGH THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY
ON THE EXACT TRACK OF THE LOW. REGARDLESS, SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
WILL BE POSSIBLE. THE LOW WILL PULL AWAY ON THURSDAY, BUT MARINE
CONDITIONS COULD STAY ELEVATED INTO FRIDAY BEFORE THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT EASES.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
AS WINDS TURN FROM THE NORTHWEST TIDAL DEPARTURES WILL CONTINUE
TO DECREASE AND APPROACH A FOOT BELOW NORMAL MLLW. THE NEXT LOW
TIDE FORECAST DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS MONDAY AT CHARLESTON
HARBOR AND FORT PULASKI WILL BE BETWEEN -0.5 TO -1.0 FT MLLW.
CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
SC...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST MONDAY FOR SCZ045.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST MONDAY FOR AMZ330.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST MONDAY FOR AMZ350-352-354.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST MONDAY FOR AMZ374.
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...ETM
LONG TERM...ETM
AVIATION...
MARINE...
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