060
FXUS62 KCHS 180245
AFDCHS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
945 PM EST MON FEB 17 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY. A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY, WITH
HIGH PRESSURE RETURNING AT THE END OF THE WEEK.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE AREA TONIGHT. BY LATE
TONIGHT A VERY WEAK COASTAL TROUGH WILL START TO DEVELOP
OFFSHORE, PRODUCING A LIGHT NORTHEAST FLOW. EVEN SO, GIVEN NO
MORE THAN THIN CIRRUS SPREADING IN OVERNIGHT, RADIATIONAL
COOLING WILL BE QUITE EFFICIENT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR MINIMUMS
TO DROP TO THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S INLAND, AND 35-40F CLOSER
TO THE COAST. THIS WILL BE THE COLDEST IT'S BEEN IN AROUND 3
WEEKS.
SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
TUESDAY: A STRONG ARCTIC HIGH SITUATED OVER CENTRAL CANADA
CONTINUES TO PUSH A LARGE POOL OF COLD, DRY AIR DOWN THROUGH THE
MIDWEST AND INTO PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST. THIS AIRMASS WILL KEEP
TUESDAY RAIN-FREE WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S ACROSS SE
SOUTH CAROLINA AND LOW 60S ACROSS SE GEORGIA. CLOUD COVER WILL
BEGIN TO INCREASE OVER THE FORECAST AREA AND EVENTUALLY BECOME
OVERCAST OVERNIGHT, AS THE COASTAL LOW IN THE GULF BEGINS TO
DEVELOP. DUE TO OVERCAST SKIES, LOWS WILL ONLY DIP INTO THE MID
TO UPPER 40S ALONG THE COASTLINE AND LOW 40S ACROSS THE INLAND
COUNTIES.
WEDNESDAY: AS THE ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM CANADA PUSHES
FURTHER SOUTHWARD, THE AFOREMENTIONED COASTAL LOW SHIFTS TO OUR
SOUTH ACROSS THE FLORIDA/GEORGIA STATE LINE IN THE EARLY MORNING.
THIS WILL ALLOW SOME WEAK SHOWERS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST AS A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW STRETCHES JUST OFFSHORE. AS
THE COASTAL LOW MOVES NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE ATLANTIC IN THE LATE
MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON, NUMEROUS TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED
WITH THIS LOW. WITH PWAT VALUES NEAR 1.25" AND A GOOD AMOUNT OF
MOISTURE IN PLACE, TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD RANGE FROM 1.0
TO 1.5 INCHES. DESPITE AMPLE MOISTURE AND 0-3 KM SHEAR VALUES
ABOVE 250M^2/S^2, ML CAPE VALUES LOOK TO REMAIN UNDER 100 J/KG
(VERY TYPICALLY FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR). OVERALL, THE SEVERE
POTENTIAL APPEARS LIMITED DUE TO A WEAK THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT.
WITH OVERCAST SKIES AND THE COASTAL LOW MOVING ACROSS THE AREA,
HIGHS WILL ONLY REACH INTO THE UPPER 50S ALONG THE COAST AND
LOW 50S ACROSS THE INLAND COUNTIES.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: AS THE COASTAL LOW MOVES OUT, RATHER STRONG COLD
AIR ADVECTION WILL BEGIN TO ADVECT INTO THE REGION AS THE ARCTIC
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL MAKE THINGS
RATHER CHILLY FOR MID-FEBRUARY AND LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE LOW
TO MID 30S IN SE SOUTH CAROLINA AND MID TO UPPER 30S IN SE
GEORGIA.
THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT: AS MUCH COLDER DRY AIR CONTINUES TO
FILTER DOWN THROUGH THE REGION, SKIES WILL BEGIN TO CLEAR OUT.
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL BECOME RATHER BREEZY THURSDAY AFTERNOON
AND A LAKE WIND ADVISORY MIGHT BE NEEDED. HIGHS WILL REACH INTO
THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S. OVERNIGHT, LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE
LOW TO MID 20S. DUE TO THE BREEZY WIND, TEMPERATURES WILL FEEL
MORE LIKE THE MID-TEENS OVERNIGHT AND A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY
MIGHT BE NEEDED.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS WILL
CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DRIFT EASTWARD, WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO
ADVECT COLD AIR ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
ANOTHER COASTAL LOW LOOKS TO DEVELOP IN THE GULF ON SUNDAY AND
MOVE NORTHEASTWARD ALONG OUR COASTLINE OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR SOME SHOWERS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST.
AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
KCHS/KJZI/KSAV: VFR WILL PREVAIL THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK: EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT. BRIEF PERIODS OF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS WILL BE
POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AS A COASTAL LOW PASSES JUST OFFSHORE
BRINGING NUMEROUS TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS TO THE AREA THAT COULD
IMPACT CHS/JZI/SAV TERMINALS. VFR IS EXPECTED TO RETURN
THEREAFTER.
MARINE
REST OF TONIGHT: CONTINENTAL HIGH PRESSURE WITH A WEAK GRADIENT
WILL BE THE MAIN WEATHER FEATURE, BEFORE THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SUBTLE INVERTED TROUGH TAKES PLACE NEARBY LATE. THIS WILL RESULT
IN MAINLY NE WINDS OF 5 OR 10 KT, AND SEAS OF JUST 2 OR 3 FT.
TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY: NORTHEASTERLY WINDS AT 10 TO 15 KT WITH
GUSTS UP TO 20 KT WILL PREVAIL ON TUESDAY AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN 2-3
FT. ON WEDNESDAY, A COASTAL LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE ATLANTIC
ALLOWING WINDS TO SHIFT NORTHWESTERLY AND INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KT
WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED
FOR THE NEARSHORE CHARLESTON WATERS LATE MORNING ON WEDNESDAY UNTIL
THURSDAY MORNING. A SCA WILL ALSO LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR THE GEORGIA
OUTER WATERS BEGINNING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON UNTIL THURSDAY MORNING.
THEN, ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON, ALL MARINE ZONES WILL LIKELY NEED AN
SCA TILL LATE FRIDAY MORNING. SEAS WILL GENERALLY BE 3 TO 5 FT WITH
PERIODS OF 6 FT SEAS ACROSS THE OUTER GEORGIA WATERS WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY. ALL MARINE ZONES SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCAS THEREAFTER
AS A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST.
CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...DENNIS
LONG TERM...DENNIS
AVIATION...
MARINE...
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