217
FXUS62 KCHS 272330
AFDCHS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
730 PM EDT THU MAR 27 2025
SYNOPSIS
DRY CONDITIONS AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL THROUGH SATURDAY,
THEN RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASE ON SUNDAY AND
MONDAY FOLLOWED BY A STRONG COLD FRONT MONDAY EVENING.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/
EARLY THIS EVENING: ANOTHER QUIET OVERNIGHT PERIOD IS EXPECTED.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC JUST
OFF THE NC OUTER BANKS. WINDS WILL DECOUPLE THIS EVENING AND
WILL EITHER BE CALM OR LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH THE NIGHT. THE
MAIN CHANGE WILL BE INCREASING CLOUD COVER. SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS PLENTIFUL CIRRUS UPSTREAM THAT WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. ALSO, THERE IS A SUBTLE INVERTED TROUGH
JUST OFFSHORE THAT WILL MOVE CLOSER TO THE COAST TONIGHT AS THE
LOW-LEVEL FLOW IS EASTERLY OR SOUTHEASTERLY. THIS WILL BRING
SOME LOW-LEVEL CLOUDINESS ONSHORE AS WELL, THOUGH MORE OF IT
WILL BE AFTER SUNRISE. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO FALL INTO
THE UPPER 40S INLAND, RANGING TO THE MID TO UPPER 50S ALONG THE
COAST.
SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/
DRY, SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SIT ITSELF OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC ON FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY ALLOWING DRY CONDITIONS AND
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE. TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB
INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S WITH TEMPERATURES BEING 5-10
DEGREES COOLER ALONG THE COASTLINE FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
FOLLOWING INTO TO SUNDAY, DEEP MOISTURE WILL FLOW INTO THE
REGION IN THE MORNING AS A SHORTWAVE APPROACHES. PWATS EXPECTED
TO RISE ABOVE 1.50" BY THE AFTERNOON. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS WILL MOVE THROUGH IN THE AFTERNOON, WITH FEW
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY NIGHT, AS A STRONG COLD FRONT
PASSES THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. AHEAD OF THE FRONT, HIGHS WILL
REACH INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S AS WARM AIR ADVECTION DOMINATES.
THERE IS A DECENT AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY ON MONDAY, WITH SBCAPE
VALUES REACHING OVER 1000 J/KG IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS. ALSO,
LAPSE RATES WILL RANGE FROM 6.2 TO 6.5 DEGREE CELSIUS/KM
ALLOWING THE ATMOSPHERE TO BE VERY BUOYANT AND THE POSSIBILITY
FOR SOME SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP. RECENT MODEL RUNS HAVE
BEEN STRUGGLING WITH THE TIMING OF THE FRONT, THUS THERE IS
STILL MAJOR UNCERTAINTY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM. WE ARE
STILL HIGHLIGHT IN THE A DAY 4-8 OUTLOOK FOR THUNDERSTORM RISK
FROM SPC.
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT, HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN ON TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY. IT IS POSSIBLE TO SEE A COUPLE ISOLATED SHOWERS
EITHER DAY AS ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVES MOVE THROUGH. DESPITE THE
STRONG COLD FRONT PASSAGE, HIGHS WILL REACH INTO THE UPPER 70S
TO LOW 80S ON BOTH DAYS.
AVIATION /23Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT KCHS, KJZI, AND KSAV
THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY. WE WILL SEE MORE CLOUD COVER ON FRIDAY,
INCLUDING CLOUDS WITH BASES AROUND 4 KFT. IT IS POSSIBLE THERE
COULD BE A FEW PERIODS OF VFR CEILINGS. WINDS WILL LIKELY BECOME
BREEZY IN THE AFTERNOON, WITH FREQUENT GUSTS INTO THE 15-18 KNOT
RANGE.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK: FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE
LATE THIS WEEKEND WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED SHOWERS AND/OR
THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
MARINE
EASTERLY WINDS CONTINUE TO RUN A BIT GUSTY ACROSS THE COASTAL
WATERS THIS AFTERNOON OWING TO AN INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH WELL
OFFSHORE, PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE SC COASTAL WATERS WITH GUSTS
CONTINUING TO PUSH 25 KNOTS AT TIMES. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE MIGRATING INTO
THE ATLANTIC WATERS TONIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN WINDS
DECREASING OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS WHILE VEERING
SOUTHEASTERLY IN TIME.
FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY: HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL ON FRIDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
(SCA) MIGHT BE NEEDED FOR THE OUTER GEORGIA WATERS ON SATURDAY
NIGHT AND CONTINUING UNTIL MONDAY MORNING, MAINLY DUE TO 6 FOOT
SEAS. AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT, WINDS WILL PICK UP ON
SUNDAY AND MONDAY BUT SHOULD STAY BELOW SCA CRITERIA.
FIRE WEATHER
THE SEA BREEZE CONTINUES TO PROGRESS INLAND THIS EVENING,
ALLOWING FOR RISING DEWPOINTS AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY RECOVERY.
LOOKING AHEAD TO FRIDAY, ONSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
CONSIDERABLY HIGHER RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES THAN THE LAST FEW
DAYS AND A FIRE DANGER STATEMENT WILL LIKELY NOT BE NEEDED.
EQUIPMENT
THE KCLX RADAR REMAINS OFFLINE FOR DOME MAINTENANCE THROUGH
APRIL 1, 2025. RADAR DATA WILL NOT BE AVAILABLE DURING THIS
TIME. USERS ARE URGED TO USE ADJACENT WSR-88D SITES WHICH ALSO
COVER MUCH OF SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA, SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND
THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS. THESE INCLUDE:
KCAE - COLUMBIA, SC
KLTX - WILMINGTON, NC
KJAX - JACKSONVILLE, FL
KVAX - MOODY AFB, GA
KJGX - ROBBINS AFB, GA
CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
NEAR TERM...BSH
SHORT TERM...DENNIS
LONG TERM...DENNIS
AVIATION...BSH/DENNIS
MARINE...ADAM/DENNIS
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