372
FXUS62 KCHS 292010
AFDCHS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
410 PM EDT SAT MAR 29 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL THROUGH TONIGHT, THEN RAIN AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASE INTO SUNDAY AND MONDAY AHEAD OF
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. A FRONT COULD LINGER NEARBY
MID-WEEK, BEFORE STRONGER HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS LATE NEXT
WEEK.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/
LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING: ALOFT, H5 SHORTWAVE ENERGY SHOULD RIPPLE
ACROSS THE REGION ALONG THE NORTHWEST EDGE OF BROAD RIDGING ACROSS
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. AT THE SFC, SUBTLE COASTAL TROUGHING ALONG THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE ATLANTIC HIGH COULD SPAWN A FEW SHOWERS
ACROSS GEORGIA WATERS, EVENTUALLY ATTEMPTING TO DRIFT ONSHORE.
ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY STRUGGLE TO PERSIST ACROSS LAND, IN AN
ENVIRONMENT WHICH SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A LARGE POCKET OF
DRY AIR OFF THE SFC. TEMPS WILL REMAIN MILD INTO EVENING HOURS
UNDER SOME CLOUDS, SLOWLY DIPPING INTO THE LOW-MID 60S BY MIDNIGHT.
AFTER MIDNIGHT: SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW ALONG THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE ATLANTIC HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT DEEPER
MOISTURE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA WITH TIME, SUPPORTING PWATS
AROUND 1.5 INCHES PRIOR TO DAYBREAK. SUBTLE H5 SHORTWAVE ENERGY
WILL CONTINUE TO RIPPLE ACROSS THE REGION, PERHAPS RESULTING IN A
FEW SHOWERS AS MOISTURE DEEPENS LATE, BUT MOST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
THE BULK OF MEASURABLE RAINFALL OCCURRING NEAR OR JUST AFTER
SUNRISE. REGARDLESS OF PRECIP ARRIVAL, CLOUD COVER SHOULD
EXPAND/THICKEN LATE NIGHT AND WITH A LIGHT SOUTHERLY WIND
PERSISTING SHOULD KEEP TEMPS MILD DURING THE NIGHT. IN GENERAL,
LOW TEMPS WILL RANGE IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.
SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/
SUNDAY: SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY SHIFT OFF THE EAST COAST
THROUGH THE DAY. ALOFT A TROUGH INITIALLY OVER TEXAS WILL SWING
EASTWARD, APPROACHING THE FORECAST AREA LATE SUNDAY. THE
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL YIELD WARM AIR ADVECTION (WAA) INTO
THE REGION AS WELL AS USHER IN MORE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO REACH INTO THE MID 70S TO AROUND 80.
DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS WILL APPROACH
THE REGION FROM THE WEST IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS, WELL AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. LINGERING HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE CHARLESTON
TRI-COUNTY AREA WILL HELP KEEP PRECIPITATION CHANCES FURTHER INLAND
UNTIL LATER IN THE EVENING. MODELS GENERALLY SHOW ML CAPE VALUES IN
THE 400-800 J/KG RANGE AND WITH ONLY AROUND 20 KNOTS OF SHEAR THE
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM RISK IS NEAR ZERO. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL VARY
GREATLY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA, WITH SE GA UP TO AROUND 0.5 INCHES
POSSIBLE AND SE SC GENERALLY LESS THAN 0.1 INCHES. PRECIPITATION WILL
DIMINISH WITH NIGHTFALL AS SHOWERS RUN OUT OF INSTABILITY. A MILD
NIGHT IS FORECAST SUNDAY NIGHT DUE TO CLOUD COVER, WAA, AND
LINGERING PRECIPITATION. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY DIP INTO THE LOW
60S.
MONDAY: THE FORECAST TURNS MORE ACTIVE ON MONDAY AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE WEST. AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT A LINE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS POISED TO PUSH THROUGH THE FORECAST
AREA, BRINGING THE RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. WITH THE REGION
WELL IN THE WARM SECTOR HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE AGAIN BE ABOVE
NORMAL, REACHING INTO THE LOW TO EVEN MID 80S. ADDITIONALLY, DEW
POINTS WILL SURGE INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S. INSTABILITY VALUES WILL
PEAK IN THE AFTERNOON, GENERALLY AROUND 1000-2000 J/KG, WITH SEAR
VALUES AROUND 30 KNOTS. STRONG, DAMAGING WIND GUSTS APPEAR THE MAIN
THREAT WITH ANY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. THE 12Z MODELS CONTINUE THE
TREND OF THE LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARRIVING IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS. DUE TO THE LATER TIMING THE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WOULD LIKELY STRUGGLE TO HOLD TOGETHER AS THEY
APPROACH THE FORECAST AREA AS THE BEST INSTABILITY WOULD HAVE BEEN
REALIZED EARLIER IN THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, IF THE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS APPROACH QUICKER, THERE WOULD BE A GREATER SEVERE
WEATHER CHANCE. THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION IN THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD, WITH LOW TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE LOW 50S
INLAND AND AROUND 60 ALONG THE COASTLINE.
TUESDAY: HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION AT THE SURFACE
BEHIND THE DEPARTING COLD FRONT, WHILE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW REMAINS
ALOFT. TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE AGAIN BE ABOVE NORMAL, REACHING TO
AROUND 80, OWING TO THE WAA ALOFT. SKIES WILL CLEAR, WITH PLENTIFUL
SUNSHINE BY THE AFTERNOON.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WILL FEATURE HIGH PRESSURE BOTH ALOFT AND
AT THE SURFACE, YIELDING A MOSTLY DRY AND WARM FORECAST. DIURNALLY
DRIVEN ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY, OTHERWISE A
DRY FORECAST HAS BEEN MAINTAINED. THE MAIN FORECAST HIGHLIGHT
THROUGH THE WEEK WILL BE THE WARM TEMPERATURES. HIGHS ON THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY COULD APPROACH 90 DEGREES IN SOME LOCATIONS, WITH MID TO
UPPER 80S ELSEWHERE.
AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT
CHS/JZI/SAV TERMINALS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY. HOWEVER, BRIEF FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS CAN NOT BE RULED OUT ON SUNDAY IF A SHOWER AND/OR
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPS NEARBY LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK: FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH LOW CIGS DUE TO SHOWERS. A LINE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON OR
EVENING, POTENTIALLY LINGERING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING.
MARINE
LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT: WEAK COASTAL TROUGHING AND A WEAK
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL PERSIST ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR BERMUDA, LEADING TO A FEW LATE NIGHT SHOWERS,
BUT GENERALLY QUIET CONDITIONS ACROSS LOCAL WATERS FOR MUCH OF THE
NIGHT. IN GENERAL, SOUTH/SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL BE NO HIGHER THAN 10-
15 KT WITH SEAS SLOWLY BUILDING TO 3-4 FT ACROSS NEARSHORE WATERS.
THE EXCEPTION WILL BE ACROSS OUTER GEORGIA WATERS, WHERE SLIGHTLY
LARGER SWELLS BUILD SEAS UP TO 6 FT BEYOND 30 NM FROM THE COAST. A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED TO ACCOUNT FOR SEAS FOR OUTER
GEORGIA WATERS, STARTING AT 8 PM THIS EVENING AND PERSISTING THROUGH
SUNDAY MORNING.
SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY: HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL OVER THE LOCAL
WATERS SUNDAY, WITH WINDS SE GENERALLY 10 TO 15 KNOTS AND SEAS
AVERAGING 3 TO 4 FT ACROSS THE NEARSHORE WATERS. IN THE 20-60 NM
OFFSHORE GA WATERS, SOME 6 FT SEAS WILL BE PRESENT THROUGH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT. SOME GUIDANCE IS
HINTING AT THE DEVELOPMENT OF SEA FOG SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, HOWEVER
GIVEN BREEZY CONDITIONS AND THE WIND DIRECTION HAVE OPTED TO LEAVE
MENTION OUT OF THE FORECAST. ON MONDAY AND INTO TUESDAY A COLD FRONT
WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION, WITH A LINE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. SOME THUNDERSTORMS COULD HAVE
GUSTY WINDS, OTHERWISE WINDS OUT OF THE S ON MONDAY WILL SHIFT TO
THE NE BY TUESDAY REMAINING AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY, WITH WINDS SE 10 TO 15
KNOTS AND SEAS AVERAGING 3 TO 4 FT.
EQUIPMENT
THE KCLX RADAR REMAINS OFFLINE FOR DOME MAINTENANCE THROUGH
APRIL 1, 2025. RADAR DATA WILL NOT BE AVAILABLE DURING THIS
TIME. USERS ARE URGED TO USE ADJACENT WSR-88D SITES WHICH ALSO
COVER MUCH OF SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA, SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND
THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS. THESE INCLUDE:
KCAE - COLUMBIA, SC
KLTX - WILMINGTON, NC
KJAX - JACKSONVILLE, FL
KVAX - MOODY AFB, GA
KJGX - ROBBINS AFB, GA
CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 2 PM EDT SUNDAY
FOR AMZ374.
NEAR TERM...DPB
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...DPB
MARINE...DPB
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