963
FXUS62 KCHS 010204
AFDCHS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1004 PM EDT MON MAR 31 2025
SYNOPSIS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM WILL OCCUR THIS EVENING AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT. THE FRONT LINGERS NEARBY MID-WEEK, BEFORE STRONGER
HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS LATE THIS WEEK. ANOTHER COLD FRONT COULD
APPROACH LATER THIS WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/
LATE THIS EVENING, REGIONAL RADAR COMPOSITE INDICATED THAT
CONVECTION HAS PUSHED WELL OFF SHORE. BASED ON RECENT CAMS AND
RADAR TRENDS, THE UPDATED FORECAST WILL REMOVE THE MENTION OF
SHOWERS AND QPF. IN ADDITION, HOURLY TEMPERATURES WILL BE
UPDATED TO ALIGN WITH RECENT OBSERVATIONS.
SKIES SHOULD BEGIN TO CLEAR OUT LATE AND WITH RECENT RAINS/WET
GROUNDS, PATCHY FOG REMAINS A POSSIBILITY UNTIL AROUND DAYBREAK.
LOW TEMPS SHOULD GENERALLY RANGE IN THE MID 50S INLAND TO LOWER
60S CLOSER TO THE COAST.
SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS A COLD FRONT DEPARTS OFFSHORE, CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SPREADING
SOUTH INTO THE MIDWEST WILL GRADUALLY FILTER INTO THE SOUTHEAST
TUESDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD AS THE CENTER SHIFTS OVER THE
NEW ENGLAND REGION AND EVENTUALLY OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC.
SIMULTANEOUSLY, AN UPPER RIDGE WILL SET UP EAST OF THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA ALLOWING FOR WARMING TEMPERATURES EACH DAY. SKIES WILL
BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR TUESDAY AFTERNOON BEHIND THE FROPA WITH SOME
ADDITIONAL CLOUDS DEVELOPING FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. VERY WEAK
SIGNALS OF SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY ALOFT COMBINED WITH MOISTURE PRESENT
WEDNESDAY COULD RESULT IN AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM, MAINLY
FOR INLAND COUNTIES. OTHERWISE, THE FORECAST WILL BE RAIN-FREE
THROUGH THE PERIOD.
THE HIGHLIGHT OF THE FORECAST THIS WEEK WILL BE THE ABOVE NORMAL,
POSSIBLY RECORD-BREAKING TEMPERATURES (SEE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW).
NO REAL SEMBLANCE OF ANY COLD AIR ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT
WILL QUICKLY SHIFT TO WAA AS FLOW SHIFTS OUT OF THE SOUTH TUESDAY
NIGHT. ALSO, TRENDS SHOW A CONTINUED PATTERN OF HIGHER THAN "NORMAL"
GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHTS AS WE NEAR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. HIGHS
WILL REACH THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S ACROSS SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA
AND LOW TO MID 80S ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA TUESDAY AND A COUPLE OF
DEGREES WARMER FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY. BY THURSDAY, MID TO UPPER 80S
ARE FORECAST EVERYWHERE WITHIN THE FORECAST AREA WITH THE EXCEPTION
OF THE IMMEDIATE COAST WHERE UPPER 70S ARE EXPECTED. IT IS POSSIBLE
SOME LOCATIONS, ESPECIALLY ACROSS INTERIOR SOUTHEAST GEORGIA, COULD
HIT THE 90 DEGREE MARK. ONSHORE FLOW WILL HELP PROMOTE A PROGRESSIVE
SEA BREEZE EACH DAY WHICH WILL AID IN COOLING AT LEAST THE COASTAL
COMMUNITIES PRIOR TO SUNSET. LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TUESDAY NIGHT
WILL JUMP TO THE MID 60S FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
THE LONG TERM CONTINUES TO REMAIN LARGELY WARM AND DRY AS A STRONG
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE JUST OFF TO OUR SOUTH. HIGHS IN
THE MID TO UPPER 80S WILL BE COMMON THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WITH
ISOLATED LOCATIONS PEAKING IN THE LOWER 90S. A STRONG UPPER LEVEL
WAVE MOVING OUT OF THE ONTARIO PROVIDENCE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
ACCOMPANIED BY A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS WILL SEND A COLD FRONT TOWARDS THE REGION LATER THIS WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED PRIOR TO THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE, WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES FORECAST FOR MONDAY IN THE
LOWER/MID 70S.
AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
PREVAILING MVFR CIGS ARE LIKELY AT CHS/JZI/SAV TERMINALS BETWEEN
07-15Z TUESDAY, WITH TEMPO IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE BETWEEN THE
09-13Z TIMEFRAME. TEMPO IFR CIGS HAVE BEEN INTRODUCED AT CHS/JZI
WHERE CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER IN OCCURRENCE, AND COULD EVENTUALLY
BE NEEDED AT THE SAV TERMINAL AS WELL. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO
IMPROVE TO VFR MID-LATE MORNING TUESDAY POST FROPA, THEN REMAIN
VFR AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK: ASIDE FROM POSSIBLE LOW CEILINGS WITH ANY
ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY ON WEDNESDAY, GENERALLY NO CONCERNS FOR
FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS THROUGH THE WEEK.
MARINE
TONIGHT: THE LOCAL AREA WILL REMAIN POSITIONED ALONG THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED EAST OF BERMUDA
WHILE A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING,
AND THEN ACROSS LOCAL WATERS LATE NIGHT. SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS
AROUND 10-15 KT WITH SOME GUSTS UP TO 20 KT ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE CHARLESTON HARBOR AND NEARBY COASTAL WATERS. SEAS WILL
GENERALLY RANGE BETWEEN 3-5 FT, LARGEST NEAR 20 NM AND FARTHER
OFFSHORE ACROSS OUTER GEORGIA WATERS.
THE BIGGEST CONCERN FOR MARINERS WILL BE STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
WELL OFFSHORE WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS POSSIBLE AND VISIBILITIES
UNDER 1 NM AT TIMES. ACTIVITY WILL SHIFT FARTHER EAST DURING
THE NEXT HOUR, ENDING THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS LOCAL
WATERS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT.
TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY: SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM
THE NORTH AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES OFFSHORE TUESDAY, WITH GENERALLY NO
MARINE CONCERNS EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THERE IS A
SMALL CHANCE SOME PATCHY FOG OVER THE COASTAL NEARSHORE WATERS COULD
REMAIN/DEVELOP BEHIND ANY LINGERING SHOWERS EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.
CLIMATE
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES:
APRIL 4:
KSAV: 91/1963
APRIL 5:
KCHS: 89/1978
KSAV: 90/1988
APRIL 6:
KCHS: 90/1967
KSAV: 90/1967
RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES:
MARCH 31:
KCXM: 68/1938
APRIL 2:
KCHS: 65/2012
APRIL 3:
KCHS: 67/2012
KCXM: 68/2012
KSAV: 68/2012
APRIL 4:
KCHS: 70/1974
KCXM: 69/1974
KSAV: 69/1974
APRIL 5:
KCHS: 65/2017
KCXM: 67/2023
KSAV: 66/1957
APRIL 6:
KSAV: 68/2023
EQUIPMENT
THE KCLX RADAR REMAINS OFFLINE FOR DOME MAINTENANCE THROUGH
APRIL 1, 2025. RADAR DATA WILL NOT BE AVAILABLE DURING THIS
TIME. USERS ARE URGED TO USE ADJACENT WSR-88D SITES WHICH ALSO
COVER MUCH OF SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA, SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND
THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS. THESE INCLUDE:
KCAE - COLUMBIA, SC
KLTX - WILMINGTON, NC
KJAX - JACKSONVILLE, FL
KJGX - ROBBINS AFB, GA
KVAX - MOODY AFB, GA (MAY ALSO BE UNAVAILABLE DUE TO
MAINTENANCE)
CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
NEAR TERM...DPB/NED
SHORT TERM...BRS
LONG TERM...BRS
AVIATION...BRS/DPB
MARINE...BRS/DPB
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