378
FXUS62 KCHS 011736
AFDCHS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
136 PM EDT TUE APR 1 2025
SYNOPSIS
A STATIONARY FRONT WILL LINGER NEARBY TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA
INTO EARLY TONIGHT, BEFORE LIFTING NORTH AS A WARM FRONT LATER
TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. STRONG ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN
PREVAIL INTO THIS WEEKEND, BEFORE A COLD FRONT APPROACHES EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
NOON UPDATE: MORNING STRATUS DECK HAS ERODED ACROSS MOST OF THE
FORECAST AREA AT THIS JUNCTURE, REPLACED WITH SOME DEGREE OF AN
AFTERNOON CU DECK. TEMPERATURES ARE LARGELY RUNNING ON TARGET,
ALTHOUGH FORECAST MAX TEMPS WERE INCREASE A DEGREE OR TWO TO
ACCOUNT FOR TRENDS.
MEANWHILE, VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS A SUBSTANTIAL
MARINE STRATUS/FOG DECK THAT HAS PUSHED INTO THE OUTER WATERS.
OF NOTE...GUIDANCE DOES SUGGEST THE STRATUS/FOG COULD PRESS
BACK TOWARD THE COAST TONIGHT BRINGING STRATUS/FOG TO SOME
COASTAL AREAS. WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THAT.
TONIGHT: WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION TAKES PLACE ALOFT ABOVE THE
INVERSION, KEEPING THE REGION ON THE WARMER SIDE. IN ADDITION, CLOUD
COVERAGE WILL BE INCREASING AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARDS,
WITH SOME PATCHY FOG AND/OR LIGHT SHOWER POSSIBLE (~20% CHANCES)
THROUGHOUT THE LATE OVERNIGHT HOURS FOR AREAS SOUTH OF I-16.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
WEDNESDAY: THE DAY BEGINS WITH POSSIBLE FOG AND A FEW SHOWERS
ACROSS GEORGIA IN THE VICINITY OF A WARM FRONT. THAT FRONT LIFTS
NORTH THROUGH THE DAY, AND THE PROXIMITY TO THAT FRONT, ALONG
WITH WEAK ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL PRODUCE A RISK FOR A FEW MORE
SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY. THE BETTER CHANCES LOOK TO MOVE INLAND
DURING THE AFTERNOON ALONG THE SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY, AND THERE
COULD EVEN BE A FEW T- STORMS NEAR AND WEST OF I-95 WHERE MLCAPE
CLIMBS AS HIGH AS 1500 TO 2000 J/KG. WARM ADVECTION AND
INCREASING HEIGHTS ALOFT WILL PROMOTE HIGHS REACHING INTO THE
MIDDLE 80S ACROSS INTERIOR GEORGIA, WITH 80- 83F ELSEWHERE AWAY
FROM THE COOLER BEACHES.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY: STRONG RIDGING WILL PREVAIL BOTH SURFACE AND
ALOFT, WITH 500 MB HEIGHTS UNUSUALLY HIGH FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR,
CLOSE TO RECORD VALUES AT 5910 METERS. THE LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE
AND 850 MB TEMPERATURES AT 14-16C THURSDAY, AND 16-17C FRIDAY WILL
EASILY PUSH MAX TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 80S, OR EVEN 90F IN PARTS
OF INTERIOR GEORGIA THURSDAY, AND AT OR ABOVE 90F OVER INTERIOR
GEORGIA FRIDAY. THIS WILL MAKE IT FEEL MORE LIKE EARLY JUNE, THAN
EARLY APRIL. SINCE NEARBY OCEAN TEMPERATURES ARE STILL DOWN IN THE
LOWER AND MIDDLE 60S, SHORELINE COMMUNITIES WILL BE MUCH COOLER WITH
SEA BREEZE CIRCULATIONS TO OCCUR. NIGHT TIME LOWS WILL STRUGGLE TO
EVEN DROP INTO THE 60S, WITH LOWS AT LEAST 15F ABOVE CLIMO.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
THE RIDGING SURFACE AND ALOFT HOLDS INTO THE WEEKEND, THEN
GIVES WAY TO OUR NEXT COLD FRONT AT SOME POINT EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THAT FRONT EVOLVES FROM THE EVENTUAL PHASING OF A BROAD NORTHERN
TROUGH WITH A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER NORTHERN
MEXICO AND THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY. IT REMAINS UNUSUALLY WARM INTO
THE WEEKEND, WITH THE LOW LEVEL THICKNESS FORECAST SHOWING
HIGHS ONCE AGAIN IN THE 80S TO AROUND 90F. YET AGAIN, SEA BREEZE
INFLUENCES WILL HOLD THE BEACHES DOWN CONSIDERABLY COOLER.
IT'LL BE COOLER ON MONDAY WITH THE COLD FRONT DRAWING CLOSER AND
BRINING WITH IT OUR NEXT SUBSTANTIAL CHANCE OF CONVECTION. WE
CAPPED POPS AT 50% FOR NOW, BUT ADJUSTMENTS CAN BECOME NECESSARY
AS WE DRAW CLOSER TO THE EVENT. ANY RAIN WE GET WILL AGAIN BE
WELCOMED, AS THERE IS LITTLE OR NO CHANCE OF RAINFALL AGAIN
AFTER THE RAINS THIS PAST MONDAY.
AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
MORNING STRATUS/FOG HAS DISSIPATED WITH VFR HEATING OF THE DAY
CLOUDS PERSISTING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. KEEPING AN EYE ON
MARINE STRATUS/FOG CURRENTLY IN THE COASTAL WATERS. VARIOUS
GUIDANCE SUGGEST STRATUS/FOG COULD GET PUSHED BACK INTO THE
COAST AS WE GO THROUGH THE NIGHT AND BRING ANOTHER PERIOD OF IFR
CONDITIONS TO THE TERMINAL SITES TOWARD MORNING. 18Z TERMINAL
FORECASTS WILL HAVE IFR CIGS SPREADING INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT
ACCORDINGLY.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK: ASIDE FROM POSSIBLE LOW CEILINGS EARLY
WEDNESDAY AND AGAIN LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT, THERE ARE GENERALLY NO
CONCERNS FOR FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS THROUGH THE WEEK.
MARINE
TODAY: SOME PATCHY FOG MAY MOVE FROM INLAND AREAS ONTO THE
NEAR-SHORE WATERS THIS MORNING, ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS SOUTH OF
SAVANNAH. THE FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE BY THE LATE MORNING HOURS,
LEADING TO NO SIGNIFICANT MARINE CONCERNS FOR THE REST OF THE
PERIOD.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT: NO SIGNIFICANT MARINE CONCERNS
WITH THE LOCAL WATERS MAINLY UNDER THE CONTROL OF STRONG ATLANTIC
HIGH PRESSURE, ONCE A WARM FRONT EARLY WEDNESDAY LIFTS NORTH OF THE
AREA. WINDS ARE GENERALLY SE OR S AT 15 KT OR LESS THROUGH THE
ENTIRE PERIOD. ALTHOUGH GIVEN HOW WARM THE SURROUNDING LAND MASS
WILL BE IN CHARLESTON HARBOR, AND AN ADDITIONAL "BOOST" FROM THE SEA
BREEZE, AFTERNOON GUSTS CAN BE HIGHER. SEAS WILL BE LESS THAN 4 OR 5
FEET THROUGHOUT.
CLIMATE
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES:
APRIL 3:
KSAV: 90/1946
APRIL 5:
KCHS: 89/1978
KSAV: 90/1988
APRIL 6:
KSAV: 90/1967
RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES:
APRIL 3:
KCHS: 67/2012
KCXM: 68/2012
KSAV: 68/2012
APRIL 4:
KCHS: 70/1974
KCXM: 69/1974
KSAV: 69/1974
APRIL 5:
KCHS: 65/2017
KCXM: 67/2023
KSAV: 66/1957
APRIL 6:
KCHS: 68/2023
KCXM: 70/2023
KSAV: 68/2023
EQUIPMENT
THE KCLX RADAR REMAINS OFFLINE FOR MAINTENANCE, BUT IS EXPECTED
TO RETURN TO SERVICE THIS AFTERNOON. UNTIL THEN, RADAR DATA
WILL NOT BE AVAILABLE. USERS ARE URGED TO USE ADJACENT WSR-88D
SITES WHICH ALSO COVER MUCH OF SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA,
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS. THESE
INCLUDE:
KCAE - COLUMBIA, SC
KLTX - WILMINGTON, NC
KJAX - JACKSONVILLE, FL
KJGX - ROBBINS AFB, GA
KVAX - MOODY AFB, GA (MAY ALSO BE UNAVAILABLE DUE TO
MAINTENANCE)
CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
NEAR TERM...ADAM
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...ADAM
MARINE...
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