641
FXUS62 KCHS 011932
AFDCHS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
332 PM EDT TUE APR 1 2025
SYNOPSIS
A STATIONARY FRONT WILL LINGER NEARBY TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA
INTO EARLY TONIGHT, BEFORE LIFTING NORTH AS A WARM FRONT LATER
TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. STRONG ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN
PREVAIL INTO THIS WEEKEND, BEFORE A COLD FRONT APPROACHES EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
LOW AMPLITUDE SHORT-WAVE RIDGING IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST REGION WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE NOSING DOWN THROUGH
THE DEEP SOUTH TO THE GULF COAST. STALLED BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM
JUST OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST DOWN INTO SOUTHEAST GEORGIA
WITH HIGHER SURFACE DEWPOINT AIR STILL DRAPED ALONG THE
SOUTHEAST COAST. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS A SCATTERED
CU DECK ACROSS THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA AND A FAIRLY SUBSTANTIAL
MARINE STRATUS/FOG DECK THAT HAS PUSHED INTO THE OUTER WATERS
OFF THE SC AND GA COAST.
TONIGHT: UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO FURTHER BUILD ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST INTO THE ATLANTIC WATERS WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
MIGRATING TO THE ATLANTIC COAST. WEAK WARM ADVECTION IS EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION MAINLY DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS,
AND THERE MAY BE A FEW SHOWERS THAT MIGRATE INTO THE FAR SOUTHERN
PART OF THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA LATE. IN ADDITION, GUIDANCE
DOES SUGGEST THAT MARINE STRATUS/FOG COULD PRESS BACK TOWARD
THE COAST BRINGING STRATUS/FOG TO SOME COASTAL AREAS. WILL NEED
TO KEEP AN EYE ON THAT.
OTHERWISE, TEMPERATURES WILL DIP BACK INTO THE UPPER 50S TO
LOWER 60S, WARMEST ALONG THE COAST.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE NORTHEAST UNITED STATES
COAST ON WEDNESDAY. MEANWHILE A PRONOUNCED INVERTED TROUGH WILL
DEVELOP OFF THE GA COAST AND MOVE INLAND DURING THE DAY. DECENT
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHEAST GA DURING
THE DAY. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS COULD DEVELOP
IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE TROUGH AS IT MOVES INLAND DURING THE DAY
WEDNESDAY. HIGHS EXPECTED TO REACH THE LOW TO MID 80S.
DRY AND WARM WEATHER IS EXPECTED THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AS DEEP
LAYERED RIDGING EXPANDS OVER THE AREA. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID
TO UPPER 80S THURSDAY AND UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S ON FRIDAY. AT
THE COAST, TEMPS WILL BE CONSIDERABLY LOWER DUE TO A ROBUST
AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE BOTH DAYS.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
RIDGING WILL PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT, THEN A LONGWAVE
TROUGH WILL PUSH EAST ON SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY SWEEP
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT, BRINGING A ROUND OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. COOLER TEMPS EXPECTED BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
MORNING STRATUS/FOG HAS DISSIPATED WITH VFR HEATING OF THE DAY
CLOUDS PERSISTING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. KEEPING AN EYE ON
MARINE STRATUS/FOG CURRENTLY IN THE COASTAL WATERS. VARIOUS
GUIDANCE SUGGEST STRATUS/FOG COULD GET PUSHED BACK INTO THE
COAST AS WE GO THROUGH THE NIGHT AND BRING ANOTHER PERIOD OF IFR
CONDITIONS TO THE TERMINAL SITES TOWARD MORNING. 18Z TERMINAL
FORECASTS WILL HAVE IFR CIGS SPREADING INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT
ACCORDINGLY.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK: CEILING RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN THURSDAY NIGHT.
MARINE
TODAY: SOME PATCHY FOG MAY MOVE FROM INLAND AREAS ONTO THE
NEAR-SHORE WATERS THIS MORNING, ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS SOUTH OF
SAVANNAH. THE FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE BY THE LATE MORNING HOURS,
LEADING TO NO SIGNIFICANT MARINE CONCERNS FOR THE REST OF THE
PERIOD.
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXPAND OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT WITH WINDS/SEAS GENERALLY BELOW ADVISORY
LEVELS. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WHEN
SOME 6 FT SEAS COULD SNEAK INTO THE OFFSHORE GA WATERS,
REQUIRING A SHORT-DURATION SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY.
CLIMATE
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES:
APRIL 5:
KSAV: 90/1988
APRIL 6:
KSAV: 90/1967
RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES:
APRIL 3:
KCHS: 67/2012
KCXM: 68/2012
KSAV: 68/2012
APRIL 4:
KCHS: 70/1974
KCXM: 69/1974
KSAV: 69/1974
APRIL 5:
KCHS: 65/2017
KCXM: 67/2023
KSAV: 66/1957
APRIL 6:
KCHS: 68/2023 KSAV: 68/2023
CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
NEAR TERM...ADAM
SHORT TERM...JRL
LONG TERM...JRL
AVIATION...ADAM/JRL
MARINE...ADAM/JRL
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