474
FXUS62 KCHS 020532
AFDCHS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
132 AM EDT WED APR 2 2025
SYNOPSIS
A STATIONARY FRONT WILL LINGER NEARBY TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA
INTO EARLY TONIGHT, BEFORE LIFTING NORTH AS A WARM FRONT LATER
TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. STRONG ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN
PREVAIL INTO THIS WEEKEND, BEFORE A COLD FRONT APPROACHES EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/
TRYING TO BE PROACTIVE REGARDING THE FOG, SO A DENSE FOG
ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND FOR JASPER AND BEAUFORT
COUNTY IN SOUTH CAROLINA, AS VARIOUS MODELS SUCH AS THE LAMP,
HRRR, AND NBM ALL SHOWING THAT FOG AND LOW STRATUS WILL EXPAND
IN COVERAGE OVERNIGHT. ONE POSSIBLE NEGATIVE FOR THE FOG WOULD
BE A 15-20 KT LOW LEVEL JET. THAT MIGHT KEEP IN MORE AS A LOW
STRATUS LAYER. BUT AFTER COORDINATING WITH WFO JAX, WE HAVE
RAISED THE DFA.
OTHERWISE, TEMPERATURES WILL DIP BACK INTO THE UPPER 50S TO
LOWER 60S, WARMEST ALONG THE COAST.
SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE NORTHEAST UNITED STATES
COAST ON WEDNESDAY. MEANWHILE A PRONOUNCED INVERTED TROUGH WILL
DEVELOP OFF THE GA COAST AND MOVE INLAND DURING THE DAY. DECENT
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHEAST GA DURING
THE DAY. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS COULD DEVELOP
IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE TROUGH AS IT MOVES INLAND DURING THE DAY
WEDNESDAY. HIGHS EXPECTED TO REACH THE LOW TO MID 80S.
DRY AND WARM WEATHER IS EXPECTED THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AS DEEP
LAYERED RIDGING EXPANDS OVER THE AREA. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID
TO UPPER 80S THURSDAY AND UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S ON FRIDAY. AT
THE COAST, TEMPS WILL BE CONSIDERABLY LOWER DUE TO A ROBUST
AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE BOTH DAYS.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
RIDGING WILL PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT, THEN A LONGWAVE
TROUGH WILL PUSH EAST ON SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY SWEEP
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT, BRINGING A ROUND OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. COOLER TEMPS EXPECTED BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
AVIATION /05Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
KCHS/KJZI: IT LOOKS LIKE THE WORST OF THE STRATUS AND FOG WILL
STAY TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST OF THE TERMINALS INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING. BUT EVEN SO, MVFR WILL OCCUR UNTIL AROUND 1330Z, WITH A
MOISTURE TRAPPED BENEATH A 1-2C INVERSION. CONDITIONS RETURN TO
VFR THEREAFTER AS THE INVERSION CLIMBS. WE'LL HAVE TO KEEP
WATCH FOR A RETURN OF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS LATER TONIGHT.
MEANWHILE, AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS PAST THESE SITES THIS MORNING,
THERE COULD BE A FEW SHOWERS AROUND THE AREA. COVERAGE IS TOO
SMALL TO INCLUDE ANYTHING AT THIS TIME.
KSAV: THERE IS ALREADY LOW CEILINGS AS WE BEGIN THE 06Z TAF
CYCLE, AND WITH A STRONGER INVERSION THAN THOSE SITES TO THE
NORTH, WE ANTICIPATE EVEN WORSE CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP,
POTENTIALLY DOWN NEAR AIRFIELD MINS. WHILE THERE IS IMPROVING
CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES BY 1330Z, IT'LL TAKE UNTIL AROUND 16Z
BEFORE VFR RETURNS. FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS COULD RETURN AGAIN LATER
TONIGHT.
WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE SEA BREEZE THIS AFTERNOON, GUSTY S-SE
WINDS WILL PEAK AROUND 18-22 KT UNTIL CLOSE TO SUNSET.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK: CEILING RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN THURSDAY NIGHT.
MARINE
OVERNIGHT: WHILE THE COVERAGE OF SEA FOG HAS DIMINISHED SINCE
EARLIER, THERE IS THE CHANCE THAT IT RETURNS IN GREATER
COVERAGE, SO WE MAINTAIN THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR THE
NEARSHORE WATERS FROM EDISTO BEACH TO THE ALTAMAHA SOUND. THE
SAVANNAH RIVER AND THE PORT OF SAVANNAH WILL REMAIN CLOSED.
FURTHER NORTH AND EAST, NO MORE THAN PATCHY FOG WILL OCCUR.
OUTSIDE OF THE FOG, NO CONCERNS REGARDING WINDS AND SEAS.
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXPAND OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT WITH WINDS/SEAS GENERALLY BELOW ADVISORY
LEVELS. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WHEN
SOME 6 FT SEAS COULD SNEAK INTO THE OFFSHORE GA WATERS,
REQUIRING A SHORT-DURATION SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY.
CLIMATE
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES:
APRIL 5:
KSAV: 90/1988
APRIL 6:
KSAV: 90/1967
RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES:
APRIL 3:
KCHS: 67/2012
KCXM: 68/2012
KSAV: 68/2012
APRIL 4:
KCHS: 70/1974
KCXM: 69/1974
KSAV: 69/1974
APRIL 5:
KCHS: 65/2017
KCXM: 67/2023
KSAV: 66/1957
APRIL 6:
KCHS: 68/2023 KSAV: 68/2023
CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR GAZ087-088-
099>101-114>119-137>141.
SC...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR SCZ047-048-
051.
MARINE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR AMZ352-354.
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...JRL
LONG TERM...JRL
AVIATION...
MARINE...
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