594
FXUS62 KCHS 021444
AFDCHS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1044 AM EDT WED APR 2 2025
SYNOPSIS
A WARM FRONT WILL BE LIFTING NORTHWARDS ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY. STRONG ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN PREVAIL INTO
THIS WEEKEND, BEFORE A COLD FRONT APPROACHES EARLY NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
MORNING COMPOSITE ANALYSIS REVEALS A NEARLY STALLED BOUNDARY
ARCING THROUGH SE GEORGIA INTO THE ATLANTIC AND INVERTED SURFACE
TROUGH SITTING UP THROUGH THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS. SMALL CLUSTER
OF SHOWERS/THUNDER IS NOTED IN THE SC OUTER WATERS. MEANWHILE, LOW
STRATUS/FOG CONTINUES TO GET SHOVED INLAND WHILE ERODING ALONG
THE EASTERN EDGE, GIVING WAY TO PARTLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE LOCAL
FORECAST AREA.
TODAY: LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN OUT OF THE S/SE AS WE GO
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENTUALLY BREAK DOWN THE INVERTED
TROUGH OFFSHORE. CLEARING SKIES INLAND AND WARMING TEMPS WILL
LEAD TO BUILDING INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPE VALUES INCREASING TO
BETWEEN 1500-2500 J/KG...GREATEST WELL INLAND...UNDERNEATH AT
LEAST SOME MODEST 0-6KM BULK SHEAR.
MEANWHILE, WITH HEATING AND THE ONSHORE COMPONENT TO THE LOW
LEVEL FLOW, A DECENT SEA BREEZE WILL BE DEVELOPING AND PRESS
INLAND THIS AFTERNOON. WITH MINIMAL CAPPING, ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS SHOULD POP THIS AFTERNOON WITH HI-RES
GUIDANCE SOLUTIONS SUGGESTING THE BEST COVERAGE ACROSS THE SOUTH
CAROLINA QUAD COUNTY AREA AS WELL AS INLAND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.
WILL SEE HOW IT DEVELOPS, BUT MORNING FORECAST UPDATE WILL
FEATURED ISOLATED TO SCATTERED POP ACROSS THE AREAS MENTIONED.
SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL APPEARS LOW...BUT SOME STORM
ORGANIZATION IS POSSIBLE ALONG WITH SOME GUSTY WIND POTENTIAL
WITH DCAPE VALUES IN EXCESS OF 500 J/KG.
TONIGHT: WITH THE LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING AND THE LACK OF
FORCING, SHOWERS AND T-STORMS WILL QUICKLY FADE DURING THE
EARLY AND MIDDLE EVENING HOURS, AND THE REST OF THE NIGHT WILL
BE RAINFREE. THE MID LEVEL RIDGE SLOWLY STARTS EXP[ANDING WEST
AND NORTHWEST, AND HEIGHTS LOCALLY BEGIN A SLOW CLIMB, WHILE A
LARGE REGION OF ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE ENCOMPASSES THE LOCAL
COUNTIES. WHILE THERE COULD BE A LITTLE FOG WHERE EARLIER RAIN
OCCURS, GIVEN 15-20 KT OF 1000 MB GEOSTROPHIC WINDS, NO MENTION
IS REQUIRED AS OF THIS TIME. THOSE WINDS WILL PREVENT FULL
DECOUPLING OVER MOST OF THE REGION, AND THAT ALONG WITH A SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL LIMIT MINIMUM TEMPS TO JUST THE
MIDDLE 60S, OR AROUND 15F ABOVE CLIMO.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
WARM/HOT TEMPERATURES ARE THE MAIN STORY FOR THE SHORT TERM. UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING STRENGTHENS ON THURSDAY AND AGAIN ON FRIDAY, AND WITH
SITUATIONAL AWARENESS TABLES (ESATS) SHOWING RECORD HIGH 500 HPA
GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHTS OCCURRING IN RELATION TO 30-YEAR NORMALS,
WARM/HOT TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED. ESATS ALSO SHOW TEMPERATURES AT
850 HPA OVER THE 90TH PERCENTILE OF CLIMATOLOGY ARE EXPECTED,
RESULTING IN AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO UPPER 80S FOR INLAND
AREAS, AND MID 70S TO LOWER 80S ALONG THE COAST. FRIDAY IS LOOKING
TO BE A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER GIVEN THE CONTINUED STRENGTHENING OF
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE, WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE MID 80S TO LOWER
90S FOR INLAND AREAS, AND UPPER 70S TO MID 80S ALONG THE COAST. THE
GOOD NEWS? THESE TEMPERATURES WILL BE BROUGHT DOWN TO THE SURFACE BY
MIXY WINDS, SO EXPECT AT LEAST A SLIGHT BREEZE TO HELP COOL-DOWN.
CAN'T RULE OUT SOME 90 DEGREE TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY, AS NBM
PROBABILITIES SHOW 20-30% CHANCES ACROSS INLAND SC COUNTIES,
REACHING UP INTO THE 50-70% RANGE FOR INLAND GA COUNTIES.
PROBABILITIES INCREASE ON FRIDAY, WITH NBM PROBABILITIES SHOW 30-50%
CHANCES ACROSS INLAND SC COUNTIES, REACHING UP INTO THE 60-80% RANGE
FOR INLAND GA COUNTIES. THE ADDITIONAL GOOD NEWS IS THE AFTERNOON
SEA-BREEZE WILL BE COMING ASHORE IN THE MID/LATE AFTERNOON HOURS,
WHICH WILL HELP COOL THE REGION BACK DOWN AGAIN.
SATURDAY WILL BEGIN TO SEE THE WEAKENING/SHIFTING OF THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE AXIS, BUT GIVEN THE LACK OF A FRESH AIRMASS EXPECT A NEAR
CARBON COPY OF FRIDAY FOR SATURDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY FALL INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S. RECORD HIGH DAILY
MAXIMUMS MAY OCCUR ON SATURDAY, THOUGH THE CURRENT FORECAST FALLS
ABOUT 2 DEGREES SHY AT THE CHARLESTON AIRPORT. RECORD HIGH DAILY
MINIMUMS LOOK MUCH MORE LIKELY, WITH THE CURRENT FORECAST WITHIN 2-3
DEGREES THURSDAY-SUNDAY, BUT IS GOING TO BE LARGELY DEPENDENT ON THE
STRENGTH OF THE AFTERNOON SEA-BREEZE.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVES OUT OF THE ONTARIO PROVIDENCE SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY, BUT BEFORE THAT REACHES THE AREA ANOTHER DAY WITH HIGHS
IN THE MID 80S TO LOWER 90S ARE EXPECTED. RELIEF IS IN SIGHT AS THE
STRONG AFOREMENTIONED WAVE IS ACCOMPANIED BY A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS, WHICH WILL HELP SEND A COLD FRONT
TOWARDS THE REGION SOMETIME SUNDAY/MONDAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED PRIOR TO THE FRONTAL PASSAGE, WITH THE NBM BRINGING CHANCES
(20-30%) FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS STARTING LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON,
THOUGH THE BULK OF THE RAIN IS EXPECTED MONDAY MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON HOURS AS THE FRONT PUSHES. NBM DOES SEEM TO HANG ONTO THE
CHANCES FOR RAINFALL FOR TOO LONG, BUT LOOKING AT THE ENSEMBLES THIS
LARGELY DUE TO THE TIMING DIFFERENT AMONGST THE MODELS. CURRENT
FORECASTED HIGHS ON MONDAY ARE IN THE LOWER/MID 70S, FALLING INTO
THE UPPER 60S LOWER 70S ON TUESDAY.
AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
KCHS/KJZI: AN AREA OF STRATUS AND LIGHT FOG IS HEADING TOWARD
THE TERMINALS FROM THE NORTH THIS MORNING, AND WILL RESULT IN AT
LEAST MVFR CEILINGS, POTENTIALLY IFR/LIFR (ESPECIALLY AT KCHS).
BY LATE MORNING CEILINGS WILL LIFT, AND VFR LOOKS TO RETURN FOR
THE REST OF THE DAY. HOWEVER, A FEW SHOWERS COULD BRUSH NEARBY
LATE THIS MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES,
AND THERE IS EVEN A RISK OF A TSRA MID TO LATE AFTERNOON AS THE
WARM FRONT PASSES THROUGH. THE COVERAGE OF ANY SUCH CONVECTION
IS TOO SMALL TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME. GUSTY SE TO S
WINDS PEAKING AROUND 17-22 KT WILL OCCUR WITH THE PASSAGE OF
THE SEA BREEZE THIS AFTERNOON, BEFORE DIMINISHING WITH SUNSET.
LOW CEILINGS ARE LIKELY AGAIN LATER TONIGHT, AND FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS WILL LIKELY OCCUR.
KSAV: LIFR CEILINGS ARE STILL AT THE AIRFIELD EARLY ON, BUT AS A
WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH AND THE STRONG INVERSION WEAKENS, A
RETURN TO MVFR AND EVENTUALLY VFR TAKES PLACE BY 16Z. VFR WILL
THEN PREVAIL THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY TONIGHT, BEFORE
FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS OCCUR AGAIN LATER TONIGHT. WITH THE PASSAGE
OF THE WARM FRONT THERE COULD BE A FEW SHOWERS BRUSHING NEARBY.
GUSTY SE WINDS WILL PEAK CLOSE TO 20 KT THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE SEA BREEZE, BEFORE THE GUSTS DROP OFF BY SUNSET.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK: FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS MAY BE POSSIBLE
THURSDAY MORNING DUE TO BOTH SEA AND LAND FOG, WITH PATCHY MVFR/IFR
VSBYS POSSIBLE. AFTER THAT, GENERALLY QUIET AVIATION CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY.
MARINE
TODAY: A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH OF THE WATERS THIS MORNING,
WITH STRONG HIGH PRESSURE TO EXPAND IN FROM THE NE AND E THE
REST OF THE DAY. THE LOCAL GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN SOMEWHAT, AND
THAT ALONG WITH THE SEA BREEZE WILL RESULT IN WINDS VEERING TO
THE SE AS HIGH AS 10-15 OR 15 KT. CHARLESTON HARBOR WILL
EXPERIENCE SOME GUSTS AROUND 20 KT THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO DEEPER
MIXING DUE TO THE NEARBY WARMER LAND MASS. SEAS WILL BE A MIX
OF WIND DRIVEN WAVES AND SWELLS, CLIMBING TO 2-4 FEET.
THE COVERAGE OF THE FOG HAS DIMINISHED SINCE EARLIER DUE TO
NEARBY SHOWERS, AND THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY HAS BEEN CANCELLED.
WE STILL MAINTAIN PATCHY FOG THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS, BUT WITH
THE FORMATION OF THE SEA BREEZE, EDIFIER IS LEFT BY THEN WILL
HAVE DISSIPATED.
TONIGHT: HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTROL THE WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA,
AND WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL WINDS, SURFACE WINDS WILL ALSO
RESPOND. SE WINDS WILL CLIMB UP TO ANOTHER 5 KT OR SO, EXCEPT
HOLDING AT SIMILAR SPEEDS WITH LESS GUSTINESS IN CHARLESTON
HARBOR. SEAS BUILD UP TO ANOTHER FOOT GIVEN THE HIGHER WINDS.
RIP CURRENTS: A MODEST ONSHORE WIND, AND SWELLS AROUND 3 FEET
EVERY 10 SECONDS, WILL RESULT IN A MODERATE RISK OF RIP
CURRENTS AT ALL BEACHES TODAY.
THURSDAY: MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS CONTINUES ON THURSDAY, WITH
NEAR-SHORE WINDS REMAINING OUT OF THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST AT AROUND 10-
12 KNOTS, BRINGING WAVES OF 3-4 FEET INTO THE BEACH ZONES EVERY 8-10
SECONDS.
THURSDAY - SATURDAY: SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OFF TO OUR EAST,
WITH GENERALLY QUIET MARINE CONDITIONS FORECASTED INTO THE
WEEKEND, WITH WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS AND SEAS AVERAGING 3 TO 4 FT
IN THE NEAR-SHORE WATERS, FAIRLY CONSISTENTLY NEAR 4 FEET IN
THE OFFSHORE GEORGIA ZONE
SUNDAY: THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT BEGINS TO RISE OVERNIGHT INTO
SUNDAY, REMAINING ELEVATED THROUGHOUT THE DAY. CURRENTLY HAVE WINDS
REMAINING BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA, BUT SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE
ON AS WE GET CLOSER TO THE WEEKEND.
CLIMATE
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES:
APRIL 5:
KSAV: 90/1988
APRIL 6:
KSAV: 90/1967
RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES:
APRIL 3:
KCHS: 67/2012
KCXM: 68/2012
KSAV: 68/2012
APRIL 4:
KCHS: 70/1974
KCXM: 69/1974
KSAV: 69/1974
APRIL 5:
KCHS: 65/2017
KCXM: 67/2023
KSAV: 66/1957
APRIL 6:
KCHS: 68/2023 KSAV: 68/2023
CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
NEAR TERM...ADAM
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...
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