813
FXUS62 KCHS 030004
AFDCHS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
804 PM EDT WED APR 2 2025
SYNOPSIS
STRONG ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL INTO THIS WEEKEND,
THEN A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
THEN REBUILD.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/
EARLY THIS EVENING: AFTERNOON CONVECTION HAS EITHER DISSIPATED
OR SHIFTED INLAND. WITH THE LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING, INSTABILITY
IS WANING AND WE SHOULD REMAIN STABLE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
WHICH WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED
JUST OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WHICH WILL DRIVE PERSISTENT
ONSHORE FLOW THROUGH TONIGHT. LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL REMAIN UP
THROUGH THE NIGHT, LIKELY PREVENTING FULL DECOUPLING AND HELPING
TO LIMIT ANY FOG POTENTIAL. HOWEVER, GUIDANCE IS STILL
HIGHLIGHTING PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST GA SO WE HAVE MAINTAINED THE
MENTION OF PATCHY FOG THERE. THERE IS GREATER CONFIDENCE IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF STRATUS OVERNIGHT, WHICH WILL PRODUCE MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES AND COMBINED WITH THE ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES ELEVATED. LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO ONLY FALL INTO THE
UPPER 60S FOR MOST AREAS.
SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/
DEEP LAYERED RIDGING OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES AND WESTERN
ATLANTIC WILL MAINTAIN DRY WEATHER AND ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. A PREVAILING SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL HELP ENHANCE THE
AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE EACH DAY, SO LOCATIONS CLOSER TO THE COAST
WILL REMAIN CONSIDERABLY COOLER THAN PLACES FARTHER INLAND.
HIGHS INLAND WILL REACH THE MID TO UPPER 80S EACH DAY, WITH A
FEW READINGS IN THE LOWER 90S POSSIBLE CLOSER TO THE CENTRAL
SAVANNAH RIVER AREA (CSRA).
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
RIDGING WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY, THEN A LONGWAVE TROUGH
WILL SWEEP EAST MONDAY, PUSHING A STRONG COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
AREA. FAIRLY WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED
MONDAY, THEN TEMPS COOL DOWN CONSIDERABLY FOR TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY.
AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
THE 00Z TAF PERIOD BEGINS WITH MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
AREA, THOUGH THERE ARE SOME PATCHES OF MVFR CEILINGS AROUND. VFR
IS MOSTLY EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS BEFORE THE
POTENTIAL FOR STRATUS DEVELOP INCREASES FROM AROUND MIDNIGHT
AFTER. PREVAILING MVFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED AT KCHS, KJZI, AND
KSAV AND HAVE BEEN TIMED INTO THE TAF'S AROUND 04-06Z. IFR
CEILINGS CAN'T BE RULED OUT AT ANY OF THE 3 TAF SITES, BUT THE
BEST CHANCES APPEAR TO BE AT KSAV WHICH IS WHERE THEY ARE
INCLUDED BEGINNING AT 07Z. A RETURN TO VFR ISN'T EXPECTED UNTIL
AS EARLY AS MIDDAY OR BY THE EARLY AFTERNOON. SOUTH WINDS WILL
BE BREEZY THURSDAY, BEGINNING IN THE LATE MORNING. FREQUENT
GUSTS UP AROUND 20 KNOTS CAN BE EXPECTED.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK: NIGHTTIME CEILING RESTRICTIONS
POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT.
MARINE
TONIGHT: HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS BERMUDA WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE
WITH INCREASING SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE COASTAL
WATERS. WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS WILL BE COMMON WITH SOME HIGHER
GUSTS, WHILE SEAS BUILD INTO THE 3 TO 5 FOOT RANGE.
FAIRLY QUIET MARINE CONDITIONS EXPECTED THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AS
AN UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. 6 FT SEAS COULD
ENCROACH ON THE OUTER PORTIONS OF THE OFFSHORE GA AND NEARSHORE
SC WATERS. SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT WE COULD SEE 25 KT WIND GUSTS
IN THE CHARLESTON NEARSHORE WATERS AND CHARLESTON HARBOR, SO
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
CLIMATE
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES:
APRIL 5:
KSAV: 90/1988
APRIL 6:
KSAV: 90/1967
RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES:
APRIL 3:
KCHS: 67/2012
KCXM: 68/2012
KSAV: 68/2012
APRIL 4:
KCHS: 70/1974
KCXM: 69/1974
KSAV: 69/1974
APRIL 5:
KCHS: 65/2017
KCXM: 67/2023
KSAV: 66/1957
APRIL 6:
KCHS: 68/2023 KSAV: 68/2023
CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
NEAR TERM...BSH
SHORT TERM...JRL
LONG TERM...JRL
AVIATION...BSH/JRL
MARINE...ADAM/JRL
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