982
FXUS62 KCHS 041804
AFDCHS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
204 PM EDT SUN MAY 4 2025
SYNOPSIS
A COLD FRONT WILL LINGER NEARBY BEFORE SHIFTING OFFSHORE ON
MONDAY. THEREAFTER, HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN AGAIN FROM THE
WEST. ANOTHER COLD FRONT COULD IMPACT THE REGION LATER NEXT
WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
DRY CONDITIONS PERSIST MIDDAY AS THE COLD FRONT NOW LIES ROUGHLY
ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR. SCATTERED TO BROKEN STRATO-CU HAS
ABATED HEATING SOMEWHAT THROUGH THE LATE MORNING, LIKELY
DELAYING THE SEA BREEZE 1-2 HRS FROM INITIAL EXPECTATIONS.
STILL, PREVIOUS FORECAST GENERALLY REMAINS ON TRACK WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS MAINLY BETWEEN THE SEA BREEZE AND FRONT
ACROSS THE LOWCOUNTRY, AND LITTLE TO PRECIP ELSEWHERE AS VERY
DRY AIR ALOFT DOMINATES.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION:
TODAY: ALOFT, THE PROMINENT LOW WILL BE CENTERED ACROSS KY AND
TN AND WILL MAKE LITTLE IF ANY PROGRESS THROUGH THE DAY, PLACING
THE FORECAST AREA ON THE SOUTHEAST PERIPHERY AND WITHIN
SOUTHWEST FLOW. THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE REVOLVES AROUND
DETERMINING THE COVERAGE AND STRENGTH OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE
EXPECTED POSITION OF THE FRONT AND THE ARRIVAL OF DRIER AIR IN
THE LOW LEVELS, THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA VERY
LIKELY TO REMAIN DRY. THE BEST CHANCE FOR CONVECTION WILL BE
MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF I-95. THE SUITE OF HI-RES MODEL
GUIDANCE IS NOT EXCITED ABOUT COVERAGE OR STRENGTH, FEATURING
JUST ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY FOR THE SC COAST
AND THE TRI-COUNTY REGION. MODEL SOUNDINGS DO SHOW FAIRLY WARM
TEMP PROFILES WITH HEIGHT POTENTIALLY LIMITING DESTABILIZATION.
HOWEVER, IF A FEW STORMS CAN GET GOING, THERE IS SOME DRY AIR IN
THE MID-LEVELS WHICH WILL YIELD SOME ENHANCED DCAPE. SO, THERE
WILL BE A LOW END SEVERE THREAT FOR HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS
IN THE AREA ALONG AND EAST OF I-95. THE TIME FOR CONCERN WILL
BE FROM NOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST TO RISE INTO THE LOW 80S FOR MOST AREAS, WITH SOME MID
80S EXPECTED FOR SOUTHEAST GA.
TONIGHT: WHILE ISOLATED CONVECTION COULD LINGER ALONG OR NEAR
THE CHARLESTON COUNTY COAST THIS EVENING, THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD
SHOULD BE MOSTLY DRY WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT OFFSHORE.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE NOTICEABLY COOLER THAN THE LAST
FEW NIGHTS WITH LOW TO MID 50S INLAND AND MID TO UPPER 50S ALONG
THE COAST.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
MONDAY: WITH CLOSED UPPER-LVL LOW SITUATED OVER THE BLUEGRASS
REGION AND A SECONDARY UPPER-LVL LOW LOCATED NEAR THE CALIFORNIA
COASTLINE, THIS OMEGA BLOCKING PATTERN WILL CONTINUE DOMINATE
THE CONUS. AT THE SURFACE, A COLD FRONT SHOULD PUSH OFFSHORE IN
THE LATE MORNING AND SKIES WILL QUICKLY CLEAR OUT THEREAFTER. IF
ANY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DO LINGER IN THE MORNING, THEY
SHOULD REMAIN OFFSHORE. WEAK UPPER-LVL RIDGING WILL BEGIN TO
FILTER INTO THE FORECAST REGION THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THANKFULLY,
THE SUN WILL BREAK THROUGH AND STAY FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE DAY.
HOWEVER, DUE TO SOME POST-FROPA, HIGHS WILL ONLY CLIMB INTO THE
LOW TO MID 80S. COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO EXPECTED OVERNIGHT
WITH LOWS DIPPING DOWN INTO THE MID 50S INLAND AND LOW TO MID
60S ALONG THE COAST.
TUESDAY: THIS OMEGA BLOCKING PATTERN WILL BEGIN TO FINALLY
BREAK DOWN AS THE CLOSED UPPER-LVL LOW BEGINS TO MOVE SLIGHTLY
FURTHER AWAY. WEAK UPPER-LVL RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER IN
ON TUESDAY AND ALLOW FOR A RAIN-FREE DAY. WITH SOME SURFACE
HEATING, HIGHS WILL CLIMB INTO MID TO UPPER 80S. CLOUDS WILL
BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT AND LOWS WILL ONLY DROP
INTO THE LOW 60S INLAND AND MID TO UPPER 60S ALONG THE COAST.
WEDNESDAY: AS YET ANOTHER CLOSED UPPER-LVL LOW APPROACHES FROM
THE WEST, CLOUDS WILL FULLY TAKE OVER AND MOISTURE WILL RETURN
TO THE REGION. A WEAK ASSOCIATED FRONT WILL POSSIBLY LINGER OVER
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND OFF THE COAST OF SOUTH CAROLINA
THROUGHOUT THE DAY ALLOWING FOR SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TO DEVELOP. THEREFORE, SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WERE MENTIONED IN THE
FORECAST. ANY RAINFALL SHOULD REMAIN LESS THAN 0.25". WITH
POSSIBLE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, HIGHS WILL BE A TAD COOLER
THAN THE DAY BEFORE AND WILL JUST TIP INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S.
TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT STAY WARM WITH LOWS IN THE LOW 60S INLAND
AND MID TO UPPER 60S CLOSER TO THE COAST.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
AS THE CLOSED UPPER-LVL LOW EVENTUALLY MOVES OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COASTLINE OVERHEAD, CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THIS OTHER UPPER-LVL LOW
CONTINUES TO APPROACH THE REGION AND A FRONT POSSIBLY LINGERS
NEARBY. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL TO AROUND NORMAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD.
AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
KCHS AND KJZI: ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND MAYBE A
THUNDERSTORM OR TWO REMAINS POSSIBLE THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON AND
INTO EARLY EVENING, BUT DRY AIR ALOFT WILL KEEP COVERAGE TOO
LIMITED FOR ANYTHING OTHER THAN VCSH IN THE TAF FOR THE TIME
BEING. MODERATE S TO SW WINDS CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING, WITH
THE GRADIENT WEAKENING TONIGHT AS A DIFFUSE COLD FRONT CROSSES
THE AREA. THE OVERALL FOG THREAT TONIGHT IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE
ANY MENTION OF VIS REDUCTIONS IN THE TAF, BUT THERE IS A LOW
(<10%) CHANCE AREAS THAT RECEIVE SOME RAINFALL THIS AFTERNOON
COULD SEE SOME LIGHT FOG TONIGHT. THE THREAT FOR THE TERMINALS
WILL COME INTO BETTER FOCUS AS THIS AFTERNOONS PRECIP UNFOLDS.
VFR THEN PREVAILS WITH MAINLY LIGHT WINDS MONDAY.
KSAV: A DIFFUSE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE TERMINAL OVERNIGHT,
WITH MODERATE S WINDS BECOMING LIGHT. DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED
THIS AFTERNOON, WITH ANY SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
FOCUSED NORTH OF THE SAVANNAH RIVER. BL MOISTURE CONTENT IS TOO
LOW TO JUSTIFY AND FOG CONCERNS OVERNIGHT, AND VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH MONDAY AS WELL.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK:
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY: MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD AS AN UPPER LEVEL
LOW APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. SIMULTANEOUSLY, A COLD FRONT WILL
POTENTIALLY STALL NEAR THE AREA LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
PERIODS OF MVFR/ IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE AT ALL TERMINALS.
MARINE
TONIGHT: SOUTHWEST FLOW IS EXPECTED TO MOSTLY BE IN THE 10-15
KNOT RANGE TODAY, WITH GUSTS UP TO AROUND 20 KNOTS POSSIBLE. THE
FRONT WILL SHIFT THROUGH THE WATERS OVERNIGHT WHICH WILL TURN
WINDS NORTHWESTERLY, THOUGH WITH SPEEDS GENERALLY NO MORE THAN
10 KNOTS. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO AVERAGE 3-4 FEET TODAY, THEN 2-3
FEET OVERNIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY MOVE THROUGH PORTIONS
OF THE WATERS THROUGH THE DAY AND OVERNIGHT. THESE STORMS WILL
BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG WIND GUSTS AND FREQUENT
LIGHTNING.
MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY: WITH THE COLD FRONT JUST OFFSHORE, HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD AND NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL TURN
SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BRIEFLY
TURN NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY ON TUESDAY, BUT WILL QUICKLY SPIN BACK
AROUND TO THE SOUTHEAST BY TUESDAY NIGHT. WITH SOME ONSHORE
FLOW NEAR THE COAST, WAVES WILL BE A BIT CHOPPY CLOSE TO THE
BEACHES. MIGHT NOT BE THE BEST SURF CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT
COUPLE DAYS. CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCAS CRITERIA
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WITH SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS GENERALLY 10 TO
15 KTS AND SEAS 2 TO 3 FT. AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH
ON FRIDAY, EASTERLY WINDS WILL SURGE AND SOME 6 FOOTERS WILL
BUILD INTO THE OUTER GEORGIA WATERS. THUS, A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED BEGINNING ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
NEAR TERM...BSH/CEB
SHORT TERM...CEB
LONG TERM...DENNIS
AVIATION...CEB/DENNIS
MARINE...BSH/DENNIS
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