424
FXUS62 KCHS 052323
AFDCHS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
723 PM EDT MON MAY 5 2025
SYNOPSIS
A COLD FRONT WILL STALL JUST OFFSHORE AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS
TO BUILD INTO THE REGION. A COLD FRONT AND AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW
WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST THURSDAY AND CAUSE AN UNSETTLED
WEATHER PATTERN TO PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/
A LINE OF CUMULUS ALONG THE SEA BREEZE SHOULD ASH OUT ONE TO TWO
HOURS AFTER SUNSET. THE REST OF THE NIGHT LOOKS DRY WITH LIGHT
WINDS. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES SHOULD RANGE FROM THE 50S INLAND TO
THE LOW 60S ALONG THE COAST.
SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/
TUESDAY: ALOFT, A CLOSED LOW WILL SLOWLY SHIFT ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
UNITED STATES WHILE A FLAT RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF AND
WESTERN ATLANTIC. AT THE SFC, A NEARLY STATIONARY BOUNDARY WILL
REMAIN WELL OFFSHORE WITH WEAK/DRY HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST. THE PATTERN WILL SUPPORT DRY CONDITIONS LOCALLY WITH HIGH
TEMPS GENERALLY PEAKING IN THE LOW-MID 80S, WARMEST ALONG THE I-95
CORRIDOR AHEAD OF A SEA BREEZE. A QUIET NIGHT IS ALSO IN STORE, WITH
WINDS EXPECTED TO DECOUPLE EARLY EVENING UNDER LITTLE CLOUD COVER,
SUPPORTING SOME RADIATIONAL COOLING COMPONENT AND TEMPS THAT DIP
INTO THE MID-UPPER 50S INLAND TO MID-UPPER 60S ALONG THE COAST.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY: ALOFT, A CLOSED MID-UPPER LVL LOW WILL
CONTINUE TO TRACK FARTHER AWAY FROM THE REGION, EVENTUALLY SHIFTING
OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST WHILE WEAK H5 SHORTWAVE IS DRIVEN ACROSS THE
DEEP SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES MID TO LATE WEEK. AT THE SFC,
A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT OFFSHORE SHOULD BEGIN TO DRIFT BACK TOWARD
THE COAST, PROVIDING AN ADDITIONAL FORCING MECHANISM FOR LATE
MORNING INTO EARLY EVENING SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY LOCALLY.
GREATEST PRECIP COVERAGE APPEARS TO BE ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN SOUTHEAST
SOUTH CAROLINA INTO SOUTHEAST GEORGIA WITH NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST. HIGH TEMPS WILL GENERALLY RANGE IN
THE UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S WEDNESDAY, THEN LOW-MID 80S THURSDAY. LOW
TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN SLIGHTLY MORE MILD, GENERALLY IN THE UPPER
50S/LOWER 60S INLAND TO MID-UPPER 60S NEAR THE COAST.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
AN OMEGA BLOCKING PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO DECAY ON FRIDAY AS AN
UPPER-LVL LOW SITUATED OVER NEW ENGLAND CONTINUES TO DRIFT
NORTHEASTWARD AND ANOTHER SECONDARY UPPER-LVL LOW LOCATED OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS INCHES CLOSER AND CLOSER THE REGION. THE SECONDARY
LOW MIGHT DEVELOP A WEAK REX BLOCK PATTERN AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE
CENTRAL CONUS. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL POSSIBLY LINGER NEARBY
BEFORE PASSING THROUGH THE REGION ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THERE ARE
MANY SOLUTIONS TO HOW THIS PATTERN MIGHT PLAY OUT, DEPENDING ON THE
SPEED THESE UPPER-LVL LOWS CHOOSE TO PROGRESS. HOWEVER, THE MAJORITY
OF THESE SOLUTIONS POINT TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF SEVERAL ROUNDS OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL
COOL TO AROUND NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.
AVIATION /23Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
0Z TAFS: VFR. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT,
THEN STEADY FROM SW DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS ON TUESDAY.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK: VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT
CHS/JZI/SAV TERMINALS ON TUESDAY. THEREAFTER, ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A NEARBY FRONT SHOULD LEAD TO AT LEAST
TEMPO MVFR/IFR OR POSSIBLY LOWER FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS EACH DAY
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
MARINE
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT: 5 TO 10 KNOT WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT
OF THE SOUTH- SOUTHEAST FOR THE REST OF TODAY, PERHAPS A TOUCH
CLOSER TO 15 KNOTS FOR AREAS DIRECTLY ALONG THE COAST. WAVE
HEIGHTS OF 2 TO 3 FEET WILL CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD,
WITH THE WIND DIRECTION BECOMING VARIABLE AS WIND SPEEDS
DECREASE AND THEN NORTHERLY BY DAYBREAK.
TUESDAY: DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL WHILE A STATIONARY
FRONT IS POSITIONED WELL OFFSHORE. LIGHT NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY WINDS
WILL TURN ONSHORE WITH AN AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE TAKING SHAPE. WIND
SPEEDS SHOULD REMAIN AROUND 10 KT OR LESS FOR THE DAY AND NIGHT,
ALTHOUGH A FEW GUSTS TO 15 KT ARE POSSIBLE AS THE SEA BREEZE
DEVELOPS NEAR THE COAST/AND OR OVER THE CHARLESTON HARBOR. SEAS WILL
GENERALLY RANGE BETWEEN 2-3 FT (LARGEST ACROSS OUTER GEORGIA
WATERS).
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY: ALOFT, LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY SHIFT
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST, WHILE MID-LVL SHORTWAVE ENERGY ARRIVES FROM
THE WEST ALONG THE NORTHERN FRINGES OF HIGH PRESSURE POSITIONED
ACROSS THE GULF AND WESTERN ATLANTIC. AT THE SFC, A NEARBY
STATIONARY FRONT WILL SLOWLY DRIFT BACK TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST COAST
MID TO LATE WEEK. THE PATTERN SHOULD SUPPORT UNSETTLED WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACROSS COASTAL WATERS IN REGARDS TO THUNDERSTORMS, BUT
OUTSIDE THIS ACTIVITY WINDS/SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS. IN GENERAL, OFFSHORE WINDS DURING MORNING HOURS
BECOME ONSHORE DAILY, PEAKING AROUND 10-15 KT FOR MOST WATERS. BY
SATURDAY, GUSTS COULD BECOME SLIGHTLY STRONGER, ESPECIALLY NEAR THE
COAST WITH A SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION (AROUND 20 KT). SEAS WILL SHOULD
SLOWLY BUILD FROM 2-3 FT MID WEEK TO 3-4 FT THIS WEEKEND.
CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
NEAR TERM...NED
SHORT TERM...DPB
LONG TERM...DENNIS/DPB
AVIATION...DPB/NED
MARINE...APT/DPB
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