453
FXUS62 KCHS 061958
AFDCHS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
358 PM EDT TUE MAY 6 2025
SYNOPSIS
A FRONT WILL REMAIN STALLED NEAR THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND
BEFORE LOW PRESSURE MOVES UP THE COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/
LATE AFTERNOON: ALOFT, LOW PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY TRACK ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST UNITED STATES, WHILE WEAK RIDGING PERSISTS ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES. AT THE SFC, HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN PLACE
WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA, ALTHOUGH A LIGHT
SHOWER CAN NOT BE RULED OUT ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS PRIOR TO SUNSET.
TONIGHT: LITTLE CHANGE TO THE WEATHER PATTERN OCCURS DURING THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD WITH HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING IN CONTROL. WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO DECOUPLE EARLY, LEADING TO LIGHT AND/OR CALM CONDITIONS
AWAY FROM COASTAL AREAS THROUGH THE NIGHT. SOME RADIATIONAL COOLING
TAKES PLACE DURING EVENING HOURS, BUT MOST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS CLOUDS
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT AND SOME LEVELING OUT OF
TEMPS DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT WELL AHEAD OF AN MCS
TRACKING ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH. AT THIS TIME, PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH
THE MCS IS LIKELY TO REMAIN WEST OF THE LOCAL AREA THROUGH DAYBREAK
WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER, THERE ARE SUBTLE HINTS OF LOWER CLOUDS AND/OR
PERHAPS SOME STRATUS BUILD DOWN NEAR THE ALTAMAHA RIVER LATE WHEN
FAVORABLE CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS COINCIDE WITH INCREASING
LOW-LVL MOISTURE AND 1000 MB GEOSTROPHIC WINDS UNDER 10 KT. AT THIS
TIME, THE PROBABILITY OF OCCURRING IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE
FORECAST. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD RANGE IN THE UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S
INLAND TO UPPER 60S/AROUND 70 NEAR THE COAST.
SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/
A LARGE UPPER LOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES WILL STEADILY
DEEPEN AS IT DIGS AND SHIFTS SOUTHEAST MID TO LATE WEEK. THE
BROAD UPPER RIDGE OFF THE EAST COAST WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND
SHIFT EAST. A FAIRLY MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL PREVAIL ACROSS
THE LOCAL AREA. A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE
THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY, BRINGING SEVERAL
WAVES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ON WEDNESDAY, THE GREATEST
COVERAGE IS EXPECTED IN SOUTHEAST GA, WITH A CLUSTER OF
CONVECTION POTENTIALLY DRIFTING INTO SOUTHERN SC LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON. THURSDAY COULD BE RELATIVELY DRY IN THE MORNING
BEFORE MODERATE INSTABILITY IN THE AFTERNOON AND WEAK SHORTWAVE
ENERGY RESULT IN SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS/TSTMS. FRIDAY
LOOKS POTENTIALLY THE MOST ACTIVE DUE TO A STRONGER SHORTWAVE
MOVING THROUGH AND DEEPER MOISTURE OVERSPREADING THE AREA.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
THE CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL STALL OVER THE ARKLATEX REGION OVER
THE WEEKEND, THEN GRADUALLY OPEN AND LIFT NORTHEAST EARLY NEXT
WEEK. A STATIONARY FRONT WILL DEVELOP OVER THE AREA WHILE DEEP
TROPICAL MOISTURE STREAMS IN FROM THE SOUTH. A PERIOD OF WET
WEATHER IS IN STORE WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERAL INCHES OF
RAINFALL SPREAD OVER SEVERAL DAYS.
AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT KCHS/KJZI/KSAV THROUGH 18Z
WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER, SOME GUIDANCE HINTS OF LOWER CIGS LATE TONIGHT,
WHICH COULD PRODUCE TEMPO MVFR CONDITIONS AT THE TERMINALS. CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS INCREASE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, BUT SHOULD
BEGIN NEAR OR SHORTLY AFTER 18Z. GREATEST CHANCES FOR FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS SHOULD BE HIGHER AT THE SAV TERMINAL NEAR THE END OF
THE 18Z TAF ISSUANCE.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK: SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON/EVENING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
MVFR OR LOWER CEILINGS LIKELY OVER THE WEEKEND AS A FRONT STALLS
OVER THE AREA AND SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND TSTMS MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA.
MARINE
LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT: OVERALL, QUIET MARINE CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. AN EASTERLY FLOW LATE AFTERNOON WILL
TURN MORE SOUTHEASTERLY BY THE EVENING WITH WIND SPEEDS NO HIGHER
THAN 10-15 KT. OVERNIGHT, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS WEAK,
SUPPORTING SOUTHERLY WINDS AROUND 5-10 KT OR LESS. SEAS ARE EXPECTED
TO AVERAGE 2-3 FT THROUGH THE PERIOD, HIGHEST ACROSS THE OUTER
GEORGIA WATERS.
THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY: WINDS OVER THE MARINE AREA WILL FLUCTUATE
BETWEEN SE AND NE WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY AS A FRONT MEANDERS
OVER THE AREA. WINDS/SEAS CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY
LEVELS.
CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
NEAR TERM...DPB
SHORT TERM...JRL
LONG TERM...JRL
AVIATION...DPB/JRL
MARINE...DPB/JRL
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