733
FXUS62 KCHS 062216
AFDCHS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
616 PM EDT TUE MAY 6 2025
SYNOPSIS
A FRONT WILL REMAIN STALLED NEAR THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND
BEFORE LOW PRESSURE MOVES UP THE COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/
NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE MADE FOR THE EARLY EVENING UPDATE.
TONIGHT: LITTLE CHANGE TO THE WEATHER PATTERN OCCURS DURING THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD WITH HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING IN CONTROL. WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO DECOUPLE EARLY, LEADING TO LIGHT AND/OR CALM
CONDITIONS AWAY FROM COASTAL AREAS THROUGH THE NIGHT. SOME
RADIATIONAL COOLING TAKES PLACE DURING EVENING HOURS, BUT MOST
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS CLOUDS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE AREA AFTER
MIDNIGHT AND SOME LEVELING OUT OF TEMPS DURING THE REMAINDER OF
THE NIGHT WELL AHEAD OF AN MCS TRACKING ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH.
AT THIS TIME, PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THE MCS IS LIKELY TO REMAIN
WEST OF THE LOCAL AREA THROUGH DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER,
THERE ARE SUBTLE HINTS OF LOWER CLOUDS AND/OR PERHAPS SOME
STRATUS BUILD DOWN NEAR THE ALTAMAHA RIVER LATE WHEN FAVORABLE
CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS COINCIDE WITH INCREASING LOW-LVL
MOISTURE AND 1000 MB GEOSTROPHIC WINDS UNDER 10 KT. AT THIS
TIME, THE PROBABILITY OF OCCURRING IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE
FORECAST. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD RANGE IN THE UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S
INLAND TO UPPER 60S/AROUND 70 NEAR THE COAST.
SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/
A LARGE UPPER LOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES WILL STEADILY
DEEPEN AS IT DIGS AND SHIFTS SOUTHEAST MID TO LATE WEEK. THE
BROAD UPPER RIDGE OFF THE EAST COAST WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND
SHIFT EAST. A FAIRLY MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL PREVAIL ACROSS
THE LOCAL AREA. A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE
THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY, BRINGING SEVERAL
WAVES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ON WEDNESDAY, THE GREATEST
COVERAGE IS EXPECTED IN SOUTHEAST GA, WITH A CLUSTER OF
CONVECTION POTENTIALLY DRIFTING INTO SOUTHERN SC LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON. THURSDAY COULD BE RELATIVELY DRY IN THE MORNING
BEFORE MODERATE INSTABILITY IN THE AFTERNOON AND WEAK SHORTWAVE
ENERGY RESULT IN SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS/TSTMS. FRIDAY
LOOKS POTENTIALLY THE MOST ACTIVE DUE TO A STRONGER SHORTWAVE
MOVING THROUGH AND DEEPER MOISTURE OVERSPREADING THE AREA.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
THE CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL STALL OVER THE ARKLATEX REGION OVER
THE WEEKEND, THEN GRADUALLY OPEN AND LIFT NORTHEAST EARLY NEXT
WEEK. A STATIONARY FRONT WILL DEVELOP OVER THE AREA WHILE DEEP
TROPICAL MOISTURE STREAMS IN FROM THE SOUTH. A PERIOD OF WET
WEATHER IS IN STORE WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERAL INCHES OF
RAINFALL SPREAD OVER SEVERAL DAYS.
AVIATION /22Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
07/00Z TAF DISCUSSION:
KCHS/KJZI: VFR FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD. SHALLOW GROUND FOG COULD
DEVELOP AT BOTH SITES PRIOR TO DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY. NO MAJOR
ISSUES ARE EXPECTED, ALTHOUGH KJZI COULD BRIEFLY GO DOWN TO
MVFR. SHOWER CHANCES WILL GO UP DURING THE AFTERNOON, BUT THE
BEST CHANCES LOOK TO REMAIN FOCUSED OVER SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. VCSH
WAS HIGHLIGHTED AFTER 19Z AS THERE ARE SIGNALS THAT SOME SHOWER
ACTIVITY WILL BE LURKING ABOUT BOTH SITES MID-LATE AFTERNOON.
KSAV: VFR FOR THROUGH MID-MORNING WEDNESDAY WITH THE RISK FOR
SHOWERS AND LOWERING CIGS INCREASING LATE MORNING THROUGH MID-
AFTERNOON. MVFR CONDITIONS LOOK INCREASINGLY LIKELY AS SHOWERS
MOVING FROM THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST. THERE ARE STILL SOME
SLIGHTLY TIMING DIFFERENCES NOTED IN THE VARIOUS GUIDANCE ON
WHEN SHOWERS COULD IMPACT THE TERMINAL. A TEMPO GROUP WAS
INTRODUCED 18-21Z IN -SHRA WAS INTRODUCED TO TREND THE FORECAST.
PREVAILING MVFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE MID-LATE AFTERNOON AS THE BULK
OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY PUSHES EAST.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK: SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON/EVENING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
MVFR OR LOWER CEILINGS LIKELY OVER THE WEEKEND AS A FRONT STALLS
OVER THE AREA AND SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND TSTMS MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA.
MARINE
TONIGHT: A NEBULOUS PRESSURE PATTERN WILL DOMINATE OVERNIGHT AS
WEAK STATIONARY FRONT LINGERS SOUTH OF THE WATERS. EAST/SOUTHEAST
WINDS WILL VEER MORE SOUTHERLY OVERNIGHT WITH SPEEDS DROPPING
TO 5 KT OR LESS. SEAS WILL AVERAGE 1-2 FT NEARSHORE WATERS WITH
3-4 FT OVER THE GEORGIA OFFSHORE WATERS.
THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY: WINDS OVER THE MARINE AREA WILL
FLUCTUATE BETWEEN SE AND NE WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY AS A FRONT
MEANDERS OVER THE AREA. WINDS/SEAS CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO REMAIN
BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS.
CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
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