906
FXUS62 KCHS 080106
AFDCHS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
906 PM EDT WED MAY 7 2025
SYNOPSIS
A FRONT WILL REMAIN STALLED NEARBY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LOW
PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/
NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE NEEDED FOR THE LATE EVENING UPDATE.
WEAK ISENTROPIC ASCENT IS PROGGED TO MOVE BACK INTO THE AREA
OVERNIGHT A WEAK MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE ENERGY PIVOTS THROUGH. THIS
COULD RESULT IN ISOLATED TO PERHAPS SCATTERED SHOWERS
REDEVELOPING, MAINLY DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS THURSDAY.
POPS 20-30% WERE HELD.
THERE ARE INCREASING SIGNALS THAT LOW STRATUS AND POSSIBLY FOG
FROM STRATUS BUILD-DOWN WILL DEVELOP ACROSS PARTS OF INTERIOR
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AFTER MIDNIGHT. ITS IS UNCLEAR HOW DENSE OR
WIDESPREAD THIS STRATUS AND FOG WILL BECOME, ESPECIALLY WITH
POSSIBLE SHOWER ACTIVITY REDEVELOPING. NEAR TERM GUIDANCE IS
ALSO MIXED ON THIS POTENTIAL, ALTHOUGH PROBABILITIES ARE
STARTING TO FAVOR MORE STRATUS AND FOG VERSUS A MID/HIGH-LEVEL
CLOUD CANOPY. AREAS OF FOG WERE INTRODUCED ACROSS INTERIOR
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA FOR NOW TO HELP TREND THE FORECAST. ADDITIONAL
CHANGES MAY BE NEEDED OVERNIGHT. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER
60S INLAND TO THE UPPER 60S/NEAR 70 AT THE BEACHES AND DOWNTOWN
CHARLESTON.
SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/
AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES WILL DIVE SOUTH
AND CLOSE OFF OVER THE CENTRAL GULF COAST LATE THIS WEEK,
SETTING UP AN ANOMALOUS MID-MAY PATTERN FOR THE SOUTHEAST.
RELATIVELY LITTLE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THURSDAY MORNING
GIVEN A LACK OF MOISTURE OR FORCING, HOWEVER AS MOISTURE
INCREASES IN THE AFTERNOON, A SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE IN FROM THE
SOUTHWEST, POTENTIALLY TRIGGERING SHOWERS AND TSTMS.
PWATS INCREASE SUBSTANTIALLY FRIDAY AHEAD OF A POTENT SHORTWAVE
LIFTING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. A SURFACE BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED
TO SETUP OVER THE AREA AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE NORTH,
CREATING A FOCUSING MECHANISM FOR CONVERGENCE. NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND TSTMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND OVERSPREAD THE AREA.
INSTABILITY WILL BE MARGINAL BUT WE CAN'T RULE OUT AN ISOLATED
DAMAGING WIND THREAT. MOISTURE AND FORCING WILL CONTINUE TO
INCREASE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY AS THE CLOSED UPPER LOW
OVER LOUISIANA DROPS FARTHER SOUTHEAST. PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND
TSTMS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. A
FAIRLY WIDESPREAD 1-2" OF MUCH-NEEDED RAINFALL EXPECTED DURING
THIS PERIOD WITH THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS LIKELY ACROSS SOUTHEAST GA
WHERE DEEPER MOISTURE WILL EXIST.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
A VERY WET PATTERN WILL CONTINUE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
BEFORE DRIER AIR MOVES IN FOR WEDNESDAY. THE CLOSED UPPER LOW
OVER THE CENTRAL GULF COAST WILL CONTINUE TO SEND SHORTWAVES
THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY BEFORE IT
BEGINS TO LIFT NORTHEAST. DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE
TO STREAM IN FROM THE SOUTH WHILE THE SURFACE BOUNDARY REMAINS
STALLED NEARBY. WE HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LOCALIZED
FLOODING ISSUES DURING THIS TIME GIVEN THE CURRENT FORECAST OF
3-5" FROM SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. IT HELPS THAT THE
GROUND HAS BEEN VERY DRY FROM PROLONGED DROUGHT CONDITIONS SO IT
WOULD TAKE QUITE A BIT OF RAINFALL TO PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT
FLOODING ISSUES.
AVIATION /01Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
08/00Z TAF DISCUSSION:
KCHS/KJZI: LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS PUSHED EAST. ISOLATED
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY MORNING AS ISENTROPIC ASCENT
INCREASES. BEST CHANCES ARE FROM 09-14Z. VCSH WAS INTRODUCED TO
ACCOUNT FOR THIS, BUT CONFIDENCE FOR DIRECT IMPACTS REMAINS TOO
LOW TO JUSTIFY ANY MENTION OF PREVAILING SHRA AT EITHER TERMINAL
AT THIS TIME. THERE ARE LOW PROBABILITIES FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF
MVFR CIGS AROUND DAYBREAK, BUT AGAIN, CHANCES LOOK TO SMALL TO
JUSTIFY A MENTION. OVERALL, VFR WILL PREVAIL FOR MUCH OF THE
00Z TAF PERIOD.
KSAV: AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO COULD STILL DEVELOP NEAR THE
TERMINAL THROUGH MID-EVENING. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE A BIT
OVERNIGHT AS ISENTROPIC ASCENT INCREASES. VCSH WAS HIGHLIGHTED
08-1330Z TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS, BUT CONFIDENCE FOR DIRECT IMPACTS
REMAINS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE PREVAILING -SHRA. THERE ARE INCREASING
SIGNALS THAT LOW STRATUS AND POSSIBLY FOG WILL EXPAND INTO THE
KSAV TERMINAL EARLY THURSDAY MORNING GIVEN LIGHT/CALM WINDS AND
FAVORABLE 1000 HPA CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS. ALTHOUGH THE
BULK OF THIS IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WEST AND SOUTHWEST OF THE
TERMINAL, CHANCES ARE INCREASING THAT SOME IMPACTS WILL OCCUR.
MVFR CIGS WERE NOTED BY 08Z WITH A TEMPO GROUP FROM 09-12Z FOR
CIGS AT ALTERNATE MINIMUMS WITH MVFR VSBYS TO TREND THE
FORECAST. FOG SHOULD MIX OUT AFTER SUNRISE WITH MVFR CIGS
RETURNING TO VFR BY LATE MORNING. ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS/TSTMS
COULD IMPACT MUCH OF SOUTHEAST GEORGIA THURSDAY AFTERNOON. VCSH
WAS HIGHLIGHTED AFTER 16Z FOR NOW.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK: EXPECT MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK,
OCCASIONALLY REDUCING VSBY/CIG.
MARINE
TONIGHT: A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT PLACED ACROSS COASTAL WATERS
WILL KEEP WINDS AND SEAS WILL BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
THRESHOLDS. WINDS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN MORE DIRECTLY ONSHORE
LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING (EAST/SOUTHEAST), BUT REMAIN AROUND
10 KT OR LESS. THE EXCEPTION IS ACROSS THE CHARLESTON HARBOR,
WHERE A NORTHWEST WIND HOLDS INITIALLY, THEN TURNS MORE
SOUTHEAST EARLY EVENING. OVERNIGHT, LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW SHOULD
CONTINUE WITH WIND SPEEDS NO MORE THAN 5 KT OR SO. SEAS WILL
AVERAGE 1-2 FT.
THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY: MARINE CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED
THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY AS A FRONT REMAINS NEAR THE AREA AND
NUMEROUS UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES MOVE THROUGH, BRINGING SHOWERS
AND TSTMS. WINDS AND SEAS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY
CRITERIA.
CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
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