886
FXUS62 KCHS 080549
AFDCHS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
149 AM EDT THU MAY 8 2025
SYNOPSIS
A FRONT WILL REMAIN STALLED NEARBY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LOW
PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/
EARLY THIS MORNING: CONFIDENCE IN PRECIP CHANCES THROUGH SUNRISE
AREN'T PARTICULARLY HIGH THANKS TO THE SUBTLE NATURE OF THE
OVERALL SETUP. HI-RES MODELS EACH SEEMINGLY PROVIDE A VERY
DIFFERENT SOLUTION, MUCH OF WHICH IS DRIVEN BY POOR
INITIALIZATION OF ONGOING SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE REGION. IF
THERE IS SOME AGREEMENT IT IS THAT THERE COULD BE AN AREA OF
LIGHT SHOWERS THAT BREAKS OUT CLOSER TO SUNRISE ACROSS SOUTHEAST
GA. BUT, IT IS HARD TO GO WITH ANYTHING HIGHER THAN 20 PERCENT
CHANCES THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT. SOME OBSERVATION SITES
ACROSS SOUTHEAST GA ARE ALREADY REPORTING LOW STRATUS, AND THIS
WILL LIKELY EXPAND ACROSS THE REGION. WHILE SOME OF IT COULD
BUILD DOWN TO PRODUCE FOG AND REDUCED VISIBILITY, WE DON'T
EXPECT A SIGNIFICANT FOG EVENT. TEMPERATURES LIKELY WON'T DROP
TOO SIGNIFICANTLY THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT, WITH UPPER 50S
TO LOW 60S ACROSS THE AREA.
SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/
AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES WILL DIVE SOUTH
AND CLOSE OFF OVER THE CENTRAL GULF COAST LATE THIS WEEK,
SETTING UP AN ANOMALOUS MID-MAY PATTERN FOR THE SOUTHEAST.
RELATIVELY LITTLE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THURSDAY MORNING
GIVEN A LACK OF MOISTURE OR FORCING, HOWEVER AS MOISTURE
INCREASES IN THE AFTERNOON, A SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE IN FROM THE
SOUTHWEST, POTENTIALLY TRIGGERING SHOWERS AND TSTMS.
PWATS INCREASE SUBSTANTIALLY FRIDAY AHEAD OF A POTENT SHORTWAVE
LIFTING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. A SURFACE BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED
TO SETUP OVER THE AREA AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE NORTH,
CREATING A FOCUSING MECHANISM FOR CONVERGENCE. NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND TSTMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND OVERSPREAD THE AREA.
INSTABILITY WILL BE MARGINAL BUT WE CAN'T RULE OUT AN ISOLATED
DAMAGING WIND THREAT. MOISTURE AND FORCING WILL CONTINUE TO
INCREASE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY AS THE CLOSED UPPER LOW
OVER LOUISIANA DROPS FARTHER SOUTHEAST. PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND
TSTMS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. A
FAIRLY WIDESPREAD 1-2" OF MUCH-NEEDED RAINFALL EXPECTED DURING
THIS PERIOD WITH THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS LIKELY ACROSS SOUTHEAST GA
WHERE DEEPER MOISTURE WILL EXIST.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
A VERY WET PATTERN WILL CONTINUE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
BEFORE DRIER AIR MOVES IN FOR WEDNESDAY. THE CLOSED UPPER LOW
OVER THE CENTRAL GULF COAST WILL CONTINUE TO SEND SHORTWAVES
THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY BEFORE IT
BEGINS TO LIFT NORTHEAST. DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE
TO STREAM IN FROM THE SOUTH WHILE THE SURFACE BOUNDARY REMAINS
STALLED NEARBY. WE HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LOCALIZED
FLOODING ISSUES DURING THIS TIME GIVEN THE CURRENT FORECAST OF
3-5" FROM SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. IT HELPS THAT THE
GROUND HAS BEEN VERY DRY FROM PROLONGED DROUGHT CONDITIONS SO IT
WOULD TAKE QUITE A BIT OF RAINFALL TO PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT
FLOODING ISSUES.
AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
KCHS AND KJZI: THE 06Z TAF PERIOD BEGINS WITH VFR CONDITIONS AND
CURRENT EXPECTATIONS ARE THAT THIS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
SUNRISE. THERE ARE SOME HINTS IN MODEL GUIDANCE THAT STRATUS
ACROSS SOUTHEAST GA COULD EXPAND INTO THE AREA BY MID MORNING
AND PRODUCE A PERIOD OF MVFR CEILINGS. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD
PREVAIL BY AROUND MIDDAY. THERE ISN'T MUCH CONFIDENCE IN SHOWER
CHANCES THROUGH THE PERIOD. FOR NOW, WE THINK THAT THIS AREA
WILL SEE VERY LIMITED ACTIVITY AND DID NOT WANT TO CARRY ANY
MENTION OF SHOWERS IN THE TAF'S.
KSAV: MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS ARE DEVELOPING ACROSS SOUTHEAST GA
AND SHOULD EXPAND THROUGH THE NIGHT. WE HAVE TIMED IN CEILINGS
LOWERING TO IFR BY 08Z AND PREVAILING THROUGH MID MORNING. VFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN BY AROUND MIDDAY. THERE COULD BE A
PERIOD OF LIGHT SHOWERS OR RAIN AROUND OR AFTER SUNRISE. THEN AS
WE LOOK TO THE AFTERNOON, SOUTHEAST GA APPEARS TO BE THE MAIN
AREA FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AGAIN. FOR NOW WE
HAVE ADDED IN VCSH STARTING AT 20Z, BUT DIRECT IMPACTS FROM A
THUNDERSTORM ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK: EXPECT MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK, OCCASIONALLY
REDUCING VSBY/CIG.
MARINE
TONIGHT: A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT PLACED ACROSS COASTAL WATERS
WILL KEEP WINDS AND SEAS WILL BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
THRESHOLDS. WINDS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN MORE DIRECTLY ONSHORE
LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING (EAST/SOUTHEAST), BUT REMAIN AROUND
10 KT OR LESS. THE EXCEPTION IS ACROSS THE CHARLESTON HARBOR,
WHERE A NORTHWEST WIND HOLDS INITIALLY, THEN TURNS MORE
SOUTHEAST EARLY EVENING. OVERNIGHT, LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW SHOULD
CONTINUE WITH WIND SPEEDS NO MORE THAN 5 KT OR SO. SEAS WILL
AVERAGE 1-2 FT.
THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY: MARINE CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN
UNSETTLED THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY AS A FRONT REMAINS NEAR THE
AREA AND NUMEROUS UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES MOVE THROUGH,
BRINGING SHOWERS AND TSTMS. WINDS AND SEAS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA.
CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
NEAR TERM...BSH
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...BSH
MARINE...
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