955
FXUS62 KCHS 081957
AFDCHS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
357 PM EDT THU MAY 8 2025
SYNOPSIS
A FRONT WILL REMAIN STALLED NEAR THE AREA THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH MONDAY AND TUESDAY,
FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/
STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES, AMPLE MOISTURE IN THE LOWER TO MID
LEVELS, WITH DRY AIR ALOFT, AND SUFFICIENT 0-6 KM SHEAR WILL
CONTINUE THE THREAT FOR SOME STRONGER STORMS, WITH SOME STRONG WIND
GUSTS AND HAIL POSSIBLE MAINLY ACROSS SE GA, INTO THE LATE
AFTERNOON. LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE GIVEN SLOW STORM
MOTION, BUT LACK OF THUNDERSTORM ORGANIZATION/LONGEVITY WILL LIMIT
THE FLOODING THREAT TO MAINLY URBAN AND VERY POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.
CONVECTIVE COVERAGE WILL FOCUS SOUTH OF THE SAVANNAH RIVER THROUGH
THE LATER AFTERNOON, DIMINISHING THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF
DIURNAL HEATING. HOWEVER, GIVEN THE PERSISTENTLY MOIST LOWER AND MID
LEVELS AND CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE, AT LEAST SOME
ISOLATED SHOWER AND STORM ACTIVITY REMAINS POSSIBLE THROUGH
OVERNIGHT, ESPECIALLY WITH SOME CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY OVER THE
MIDLANDS POTENTIALLY PUSHING IN FROM THE WEST LATE. LOWS WILL BE
MILD WITH MUGGY CONDITIONS.
SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
FRIDAY: AS AN UPPER-LVL LOW SITUATES ITSELF OVER THE GULF STATES, AN
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION IN THE EVENING.
SBCAPE VALUES AROUND 1500-2000 J/KG AND 0-6KM SHEAR IN THE 30-35 KT
RANGE INDICATE ANOTHER DAY FEATURING MAINLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN
STRONG- TO-MARGINALLY-SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING FRONT, WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL THE
PRIMARY THREATS. ADDITIONALLY, PWAT VALUES RANGING ~1.30-1.50
INCHES AND EXTREMELY MOIST SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW BEING ADVECTED
INTO THE REGION LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS AGAIN POSSIBLE, WITH
FLOODING THREATS MAINLY LIMITED TO URBAN, LOW-LYING, AND POOR
DRAINAGE AREAS. UNCERTAINTY REMAINS WITH RESPECT TO COVERAGE
HOWEVER, AS SOME SUBTLE MID LEVEL RIDGING COULD ABATE COVERAGE
SOMEWHAT, KEEPING COVERAGE MORE SCATTERED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
EXPECT HIGHS TO CLIMB INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S (WITH TEMPS.
COOLER ALONG THE BEACHES).
FRIDAY NIGHT: AS THE COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE REGION, ANY
REMAINING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD PUSH OFFSHORE. CLOUD
COVER WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES WARMER THAN USUAL WITH LOW TO 60S
INLAND AND UPPER 60S ALONG THE COAST.
SATURDAY: THIS UPPER-LVL LOW WILL REMAIN PARKED ACROSS THE GULF
STATES AND PUSH RICH MOISTURE INTO THE SOUTHEAST. AT THE SURFACE,
STATIONARY FRONT WILL LINGER NEARBY AND PROMOTE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT THE DAY. HIGHEST CONFIDENCE IN SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE ALONG THE SEA BREEZE IN THE
AFTERNOON. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED AND WPC
HIGHLIGHTED THE ENTIRE REGION UNDER A MARGINAL RISK FOR EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL AGAIN.
GIVEN THE OVERALL PATTERN, TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH HIGHS ONLY REACHING INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S
WITH POCKETS OF UPPER 70S IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. NORTHEASTERLY WINDS
WILL LIKELY BECOME GUSTY AGAIN IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE SEA BREEZE
DEVELOPS AND PUSHES INLAND.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
THE LARGE CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER CENTRAL LOUISIANA WILL CONTINUE
TO DEEPEN SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE BEGINNING TO LIFT
NORTHEAST ON MONDAY. MEANWHILE A SURFACE FRONT WILL REMAIN
STALLED ALONG THE COAST UNTIL LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE
LIFTING NORTH AS A WARM FRONT. DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL
STREAM INTO THE AREA ON SUNDAY WITH PWS ABOVE 1.75" BY THE
AFTERNOON. A POTENT SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO SOUTHEAST
GA SUNDAY AFTERNOON, BRINGING A WAVE OF CONVECTION TO THE AREA.
FARTHER TO THE NORTH, SHOWERS AND TSTMS MAY BE MORE SCATTERED IN
NATURE, PRIMARILY DRIVEN BY ISENTROPIC ASCENT.
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING STILL LOOKS LIKE THE
WETTEST PERIOD DUE TO THE UPPER LOW LIFTING NORTHEAST INTO THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY WHILE A DEEP PLUME OF TROPICAL MOISTURE
OVERSPREADS THE AREA. A SERIES OF STRONG SHORTWAVES WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA, LIKELY BRINGING SEVERAL ROUNDS OF WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND TSTMS. RAINFALL TOTALS DURING THIS TIME COULD RANGE
FROM 2-4". GIVEN THE ONGOING MODERATE TO SEVERE DROUGHT
CONDITIONS, ANY FLOODING ISSUES WILL LIKELY BE WHERE TORRENTIAL
RAINFALL OCCURS OVER A SHORT TIME PERIOD.
THE UPPER TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY. ALTHOUGH THE
DEEPEST MOISTURE WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA, SCATTERED SHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY GIVEN THE FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE
TROUGH.
AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
KCHS AND KJZI: AFTERNOON CONVECTION SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF THE
TERMINALS THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE
EVENING. ISOLATED SHOWER/STORM ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN THE PRIMARY
CONCERN THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT, THOUGH THERE IS A VERY LOW (<10%)
CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT FOG ACROSS THE CHARLESTON TRI-COUNTRY AREA
OVERNIGHT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORM ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN
FRIDAY, BUT UNCERTAINTY ABOUT COVERAGE AND DURATION PRECLUDE ANY
MENTION IN THE TAF AT THIS POINT.
KSAV: SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTINUE IN THE SAVANNAH AREA FOR
SEVERAL MORE HOURS, BRINGING THE THREAT OF GUSTY WINDS AND
LIGHTNING TO THE TERMINAL THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY WILL WANE AFTER SUNSET, BUT THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED
SHOWERS/STORMS PERSISTS OVERNIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORM ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN FRIDAY, BUT
UNCERTAINTY ABOUT COVERAGE AND DURATION PRECLUDE ANY MENTION IN
THE TAF AT THIS POINT.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK: MVFR OR LOWER CEILING AND/OR
VISIBILITY POSSIBLE SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY AS A FRONT REMAINS
STALLED NEARBY AND SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS/TSTMS MOVE THROUGH.
MARINE
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT: LIGHT TO MODERATE S TO SW WINDS PREVAIL
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE OVER THE WATERS FRIDAY
NIGHT. THE FRONT WILL STALL NEARBY THROUGH SATURDAY WITH
MODERATE TO BREEZY N TO NE WINDS NORTH OF THE FRONT. GUSTS COULD
REACH TO NEAR 20 KT MAINLY OFF THE SC COAST BEGINNING SATURDAY,
BUT SCA CONDITIONS ARE UNLIKELY WITH SEAS REMAINING MAINLY 2-4
FT.
SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY: SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN OVER
THE WATERS AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES UP THE COAST. SOME 6 FT SEAS
COULD MOVE INTO OUTER PORTIONS OF THE OFFSHORE GA WATERS MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY.
CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
NEAR TERM...CEB
SHORT TERM...CEB
LONG TERM...JRL
AVIATION...CEB/JRL
MARINE...CEB/JRL
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