103
FXUS62 KCHS 082339
AFDCHS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
739 PM EDT THU MAY 8 2025
SYNOPSIS
A FRONT WILL REMAIN STALLED NEAR THE AREA THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH MONDAY AND TUESDAY,
FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/
CONVECTION HAS SETTLED NEAR THE ALTAMAHA RIVER THIS EVENING
WHERE A RISK FOR ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE TSTMS PERSISTS. RAIN
CHANCES WILL REMAIN HIGHEST IN THIS AREA FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
THE FOCUS FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS COULD REFOCUS
ACROSS INTERIOR SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA INTO THE CHARLESTON
TRI-COUNTY OVERNIGHT AS CONVECTION OVER THE MIDLANDS TRIES TO
WORK EAST. NEAR TERM POPS THIS EVENING WERE ADJUSTED TO REFLECT
GOING RADAR TRENDS. LOWS WERE NUDGED UP SLIGHTLY, RANGING FROM
THE LOWER 60S WELL INLAND TO AROUND 70 AT THE BEACHES AND
DOWNTOWN CHARLESTON.
SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
FRIDAY: AS AN UPPER-LVL LOW SITUATES ITSELF OVER THE GULF
STATES, AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION IN
THE EVENING. SBCAPE VALUES AROUND 1500-2000 J/KG AND 0-6KM
SHEAR IN THE 30-35 KT RANGE INDICATE ANOTHER DAY FEATURING
MAINLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN STRONG- TO-MARGINALLY-SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT, WITH DAMAGING
WINDS AND LARGE HAIL THE PRIMARY THREATS. ADDITIONALLY, PWAT
VALUES RANGING ~1.30-1.50 INCHES AND EXTREMELY MOIST
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW BEING ADVECTED INTO THE REGION LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL IS AGAIN POSSIBLE, WITH FLOODING THREATS MAINLY LIMITED
TO URBAN, LOW-LYING, AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. UNCERTAINTY
REMAINS WITH RESPECT TO COVERAGE HOWEVER, AS SOME SUBTLE MID
LEVEL RIDGING COULD ABATE COVERAGE SOMEWHAT, KEEPING COVERAGE
MORE SCATTERED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. EXPECT HIGHS TO CLIMB INTO
THE LOW TO MID 80S (WITH TEMPS. COOLER ALONG THE BEACHES).
FRIDAY NIGHT: AS THE COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE REGION, ANY
REMAINING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD PUSH OFFSHORE. CLOUD
COVER WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES WARMER THAN USUAL WITH LOW TO 60S
INLAND AND UPPER 60S ALONG THE COAST.
SATURDAY: THIS UPPER-LVL LOW WILL REMAIN PARKED ACROSS THE GULF
STATES AND PUSH RICH MOISTURE INTO THE SOUTHEAST. AT THE
SURFACE, STATIONARY FRONT WILL LINGER NEARBY AND PROMOTE SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT THE DAY. HIGHEST CONFIDENCE IN
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE ALONG THE SEA BREEZE IN
THE AFTERNOON. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED AND
WPC HIGHLIGHTED THE ENTIRE REGION UNDER A MARGINAL RISK FOR
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AGAIN.
GIVEN THE OVERALL PATTERN, TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH HIGHS ONLY REACHING INTO THE LOW TO
MID 70S WITH POCKETS OF UPPER 70S IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL LIKELY BECOME GUSTY AGAIN IN THE
AFTERNOON AS THE SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS AND PUSHES INLAND.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
THE LARGE CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER CENTRAL LOUISIANA WILL CONTINUE
TO DEEPEN SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE BEGINNING TO LIFT
NORTHEAST ON MONDAY. MEANWHILE A SURFACE FRONT WILL REMAIN
STALLED ALONG THE COAST UNTIL LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE
LIFTING NORTH AS A WARM FRONT. DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL
STREAM INTO THE AREA ON SUNDAY WITH PWS ABOVE 1.75" BY THE
AFTERNOON. A POTENT SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO SOUTHEAST
GA SUNDAY AFTERNOON, BRINGING A WAVE OF CONVECTION TO THE AREA.
FARTHER TO THE NORTH, SHOWERS AND TSTMS MAY BE MORE SCATTERED IN
NATURE, PRIMARILY DRIVEN BY ISENTROPIC ASCENT.
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING STILL LOOKS LIKE THE
WETTEST PERIOD DUE TO THE UPPER LOW LIFTING NORTHEAST INTO THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY WHILE A DEEP PLUME OF TROPICAL MOISTURE
OVERSPREADS THE AREA. A SERIES OF STRONG SHORTWAVES WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA, LIKELY BRINGING SEVERAL ROUNDS OF WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND TSTMS. RAINFALL TOTALS DURING THIS TIME COULD RANGE
FROM 2-4". GIVEN THE ONGOING MODERATE TO SEVERE DROUGHT
CONDITIONS, ANY FLOODING ISSUES WILL LIKELY BE WHERE TORRENTIAL
RAINFALL OCCURS OVER A SHORT TIME PERIOD.
THE UPPER TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY. ALTHOUGH THE
DEEPEST MOISTURE WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA, SCATTERED SHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY GIVEN THE FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE
TROUGH.
AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
08/00Z TAF DISCUSSION:
KCHS/KJZI: THE RISK FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS COULD OCCUR
AT KCHS ROUGHLY 04-07Z BEFORE SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER THE MIDLANDS
TRIES TO WORK EAST AND STIRS UP THE BOUNDARY LAYER. A TEMPO
GROUND WAS UTILIZED TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS
COULD REDEVELOP NEAR BOTH TERMINALS EARLY FRIDAY MORNING AS A
WEAK IMPULSE PASSES BY TO THE NORTH. VCSH WAS HIGHLIGHTED. VFR
WILL THEN PREVAIL INTO THE AFTERNOON FRIDAY. SCATTERED
SHOWERS/TSTMS COULD DEVELOP ALONG THE SEA BREEZE MID-LATE
AFTERNOON. FOR NOW, ANY MENTION WAS LIMITED TO VCTS UNTIL
PLACEMENT AND TIMING OF CONVECTION CAN BE BETTER PINNED DOWN.
KSAV: SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY HAS ENDED. VFR WILL PREVAIL FOR MOST
OF THE 00Z TAF PERIOD. SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS COULD DEVELOP
ALONG THE SEA BREEZE MID-LATE AFTERNOON. FOR NOW, ANY MENTION
WAS LIMITED TO VCTS UNTIL PLACEMENT AND TIMING OF CONVECTION CAN
BE BETTER PINNED DOWN.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK: MVFR OR LOWER CEILING AND/OR
VISIBILITY POSSIBLE SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY AS A FRONT REMAINS
STALLED NEARBY AND SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS/TSTMS MOVE THROUGH.
MARINE
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT: LIGHT TO MODERATE S TO SW WINDS PREVAIL
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE OVER THE WATERS FRIDAY
NIGHT. THE FRONT WILL STALL NEARBY THROUGH SATURDAY WITH
MODERATE TO BREEZY N TO NE WINDS NORTH OF THE FRONT. GUSTS COULD
REACH TO NEAR 20 KT MAINLY OFF THE SC COAST BEGINNING SATURDAY,
BUT SCA CONDITIONS ARE UNLIKELY WITH SEAS REMAINING MAINLY 2-4
FT.
SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY: SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN OVER
THE WATERS AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES UP THE COAST. SOME 6 FT SEAS
COULD MOVE INTO OUTER PORTIONS OF THE OFFSHORE GA WATERS MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY.
CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
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