598
FXUS62 KCHS 261752
AFDCHS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
152 PM EDT MON MAY 26 2025
SYNOPSIS
AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGHOUT THIS WEEK AS
A FRONT LINGERS NEARBY AND SERIES OF DISTURBANCES MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH SATURDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
EARLY AFTERNOON UPDATE: NOT MUCH RAIN OCCURRING AT THE MOMENT
AS THE SHORTWAVE DISCUSSED BELOW IS CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS
WESTERN GEORGIA, THOUGH THE MOIST ATMOSPHERE (26.12Z CHS
SOUNDING REVEALED 1.62" OF PRECIPITABLE WATER) JUST NEEDS SOME
WEAK LIFT TO CREATE AN ISOLATED SHOWER. WILL LIKELY NEED TO WAIT
FOR THE SEA-BREEZE TO FORM OVER THE COMING HOURS BEFORE
THUNDERSTORMS INITIATE, WITH FURTHER INITIATION EXPECTED AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST. PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION BELOW REMAINS VALID.
TODAY: A STALLED FRONT WILL REMAIN POSITIONED OVER THE FORECAST
AREA TODAY, WHILE A SHORTWAVE TROUGH RIPPLES ACROSS THE ZONAL
FLOW ALOFT. BETWEEN THE STALLED FRONT AND THE SHORTWAVE ALOFT,
SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE AGAIN
FORECAST ACROSS THE REGION, MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS. LOW
STRATUS AND FOG THIS MORNING WILL SCATTER OUT WITH DAYBREAK,
LEAVING THE REGION UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. TEMPERATURES WILL
TO REACH INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S BY THIS AFTERNOON, ALONG WITH
DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO EVEN LOW 70S. THIS WARM AND
MOIST AIRMASS WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF CONVECTIVE INITIATION THIS
AFTERNOON. CAMS ARE IN FAIRLY DECENT AGREEMENT THAT SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL LIKELY BEGIN IMPACTING THE REGION AFTER NOONTIME,
WITH THE PERIOD OF GREATEST COVERAGE IN THE LATE AFTERNOON TO
EARLY EVENING. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE PWAT VALUES UPWARDS OF
1.7" ACROSS THE REGION, WHICH WOULD BE NEAR THE DAILY MAX FOR
TODAY ACCORDING TO SPC CLIMATOLOGY. ADDITIONALLY, MUCAPE VALUES
ARE FORECAST TO REACH AROUND 1000-1500 J/KG ALONG WITH DCAPE
VALUES AROUND 500 J/KG. WHILE THERE IS LITTLE TO NO SHEAR TO
SPEAK OF, THESE CAPE VALUES COULD BE SUPPORTIVE OF A STRONG TO
MARGINALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORM, WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS THE
MAIN HAZARD. LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL IS ALSO POSSIBLE, GIVEN
LIMITED STORM MOVEMENT IN THE ABSENCE OF LARGE SCALE FORCING.
THE 00Z HREF SHOWS A ROUGHLY 30-50% PROBABILITY OF GREATER THAN
1 INCH OF RAIN ACROSS THE AREA GENERALLY ALONG AND EAST OF
I-95.
TONIGHT: CONVECTION WILL LIKELY LINGER INTO THE EARLY EVENING
HOURS, EVENTUALLY WANING BY AROUND 10 PM. THEREAFTER ANOTHER
NIGHT OF LOW STRATUS/FOG IS POSSIBLE, WITH THE 01Z NBM SHOWING A
FAIRLY LARGE AREA OF LOW CEILINGS LATE TONIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY DIP INTO THE UPPER
60S TO AROUND 70, WITH SOME MID 60S ACROSS FAR INLAND
LOCATIONS.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
AN UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL PERSIST DURING THIS PERIOD. A BROAD
UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH A SERIES
OF SHORTWAVES RIPPLING THROUGH THE AREA. AT THE SURFACE A FRONT
WILL REMAIN STALLED NEAR OR OVER THE AREA WITH OCCASIONAL SHIFTS
TO THE NORTH OR SOUTH. DEEP MOISTURE WILL PREVAIL WITH PWS ABOVE
1.8" FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE PERIOD. NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND TSTMS
WILL LIKELY DEVELOP EACH DAY, PARTICULARLY DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING WHEN GREATER INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT. HOWEVER,
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE AT NIGHT GIVEN
THE SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH. SOME FLOODING IS POSSIBLE WHERE
EFFICIENT PRECIPITATION-PRODUCERS MOVE REPEATEDLY OVER THE SAME
AREAS.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
A STRONG UPPER SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY, PUSHING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY. RAIN
CHANCES WILL REMAIN FAIRLY HIGH UNTIL THE FRONT CLEARS THE AREA.
TEMPERATURES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO DECREASE VERY MUCH FOR SUNDAY
THOUGH DEWPOINTS WILL BE NOTICEABLY LOWER.
AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
26.18Z - LARGELY VFR ACROSS THE REGION WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS, THOUGH SOME MVFR CIGS ARE STARTING TO BE OBSERVED AS WE REACH
CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES. MAIN AVIATION CONCERN IN THE NEAR-TERM IS
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, WHICH ARE EXPECTED TO
INCREASE IN COVERAGE AS A SEA BREEZE FORMS AND MOVE INLAND, WITH
MVFR-IFR CIGS AND VISBYS POSSIBLE AS THEY MOVE OVER ANY GIVEN
LOCATION. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AS A
SHORTWAVE MOVES IN FROM THE WEST. ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE, MOSTLY BRINGING A THREAT FOR STRONG
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH, THOUGH THERE REMAINS A <5% CHANCE FOR
QUARTER SIZE HAIL. AFTER SHOWERS/STORMS MOVE OUT OVERNIGHT, LOW MVFR-
IFR STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE IN, WITH PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE NEAR-
SUNRISE.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK: CEILING RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE,
PARTICULARLY AT NIGHT AS STRATUS DEVELOPS. OCCASIONAL VISIBILITY
REDUCTIONS EXPECTED, MAINLY DURING DAYTIME SHOWERS AND TSTMS,
THOUGH OVERNIGHT FOG IS ALSO POSSIBLE.
MARINE
TODAY: A FRONT WILL REMAIN STALLED ACROSS THE MARINE ZONES
TODAY, YIELDING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON. WINDS GENERALLY AROUND 10 KNOTS ARE FORECAST, WITH
SEAS 2 TO 3 FT ARE FORECAST TODAY, BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CRITERIA. GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE IN ANY SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
THAT MOVE INTO THE MARINE WATERS TODAY.
TONIGHT: THE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY LINGER ACROSS THE
MARINE ZONES INTO TONIGHT, PUSHING FURTHER INTO THE ATLANTIC
WATERS AFTER MIDNIGHT. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CRITERIA.
TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY, WINDS/SEAS WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW
ADVISORY THRESHOLDS.
RIP CURRENTS: WITH THE LACK OF ONSHORE WINDS MONDAY, A LOW RISK
OF RIP CURRENTS IS EXPECTED MONDAY AT ALL BEACHES. AS A MODEST
SWELL BEGINS TO BUILD IN ON TUESDAY, COMBINED WITH A HIGHER THAN
NORMAL TIDAL RANGE, A MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS IS EXPECTED
ON TUESDAY AT ALL BEACHES.
ONE NOTE TO BOATERS: STRONGER THAN NORMAL CURRENTS CAN BE EXPECTED
ON TIDAL WATERWAYS THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND GIVEN LARGE TIDAL
RANGES AS WE APPROACH THE PERIGEE ON MONDAY. EARLY AFTERNOON LOW
TIDES WILL BE FOLLOWED BY QUICKLY RISING WATER, WHICH HAS, IN THE
PAST, RESULTED IN DANGEROUS CONDITIONS AS AREA SANDBARS QUICKLY
BECOME SUBMERGED.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
A LUNAR PERIGEE WILL OCCUR TODAY WITH A NEW MOON ON TUESDAY.
THE EVENING HIGH TIDES AT CHARLESTON ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
MINOR COASTAL FLOODING TUESDAY EVENING. FORT PULASKI COULD PEAK
WITHIN MINOR FLOOD STAGE ON TUESDAY. ADDITIONAL COASTAL FLOOD
ADVISORIES ARE LIKELY.
CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
SC...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 6 PM TO 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
SCZ049-050.
MARINE...NONE.
NEAR TERM...APT/CPM
SHORT TERM...JRL
LONG TERM...JRL
AVIATION...APT/JRL
MARINE...CPM/JRL
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