105
FXUS62 KCHS 262107
AFDCHS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
507 PM EDT MON MAY 26 2025
SYNOPSIS
AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGHOUT THIS WEEK AS
A FRONT LINGERS NEARBY AND SERIES OF DISTURBANCES MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION ON FRIDAY,
WITH DRIER WEATHER THIS WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/
QUICK UPDATE WAS ISSUED TO TAKE CURRENT RADAR AND SHORT TERM
MODELS TRENDS INTO ACCOUNT. THE COMING WEDGE LOOKS A BIT
STRONGER THAN EXPECTED AND WINDS HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED TO REFLECT
THIS, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE LOWER SOUTH CAROLINA COAST.
TONIGHT: WHILE THE SHORTWAVE WILL FINISH CROSSING THE AREA THIS
EVENING BRINGING AN END TO THIS ROUND OF CONVECTION, THERE IS AN
MCS/MCV PROGGED TO MOVE EAST-NORTHEASTWARD OVERNIGHT ACROSS CENTRAL
GEORGIA DURING THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS. WHILE SOME OF THE
CONVECTION ALLOWING MODELS (CAMS) ARE INDICATING THAT THIS ACTIVITY
STAYS OFF TO OUR NORTHWEST, OTHERS POINT TOWARDS KEEPING A 20-40%
FOR RAIN CONTINUING INTO THE MORNING HOURS. IF THE RAIN DOESN'T
ARRIVE, ANOTHER ROUND OF LOW STRATUS AND/OR FOG ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE REGION. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S ARE EXPECTED,
WARMEST ALONG THE COAST.
SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/
TUESDAY, AN AREA OF COLD AIR DAMMING SHOULD BEGIN THE DAY ACROSS THE
CAROLINAS AND MOST OF GEORGIA. THE FORECAST WILL FEATURE LIGHT
NORTHEAST WINDS ACROSS THE CWA DURING THE MORNING. SHORT TERM
GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT A COAST TROUGH OR SEA BREEZE WILL DEVELOP
DURING THE AFTERNOON, DRIFTING INLAND. MOISTURE CONVERGENCE MAY
INCREASE BETWEEN THE WEDGED AIR MASS AND THE SEA BREEZE. THE
FORECAST WILL INDICATE LIKELY POPS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW DEEP MOISTURE WITH PW VALUES EXCEEDING 1.8
INCHES WITH STORM MOTIONS BETWEEN 10 TO 15 MPH. HREF INDICATES THAT
THE POTENTIAL FOR 1 IN/3HR WITHIN 40 KM WILL PEAK DURING THE
AFTERNOON AROUND 50 PERCENT ALONG THE SEA BREEZE. IN ADDITION, A
FIELD OF CAPE BETWEEN 1000-1500 J/KG MAY DEVELOP NEAR THE SEA
BREEZE, SUPPORTING A FEW STRONG UPDRAFTS. SPC HAS HIGHLIGHTED THE
REGION WITH A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER. GIVEN THE DEPENDENCE
OF THE ERODING CAD, HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL FAVOR COOLER MEMBERS,
WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, THE H5 PATTERN WILL GRADUALLY AMPLIFY, WITH
A TROUGH AXIS EXPECTED TO PASS OVER THE FORECAST AREA ON THURSDAY.
THE ENVIRONMENT ACROSS THE REGION WILL CONTINUE TO FEATURE DEEP
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY. THE POPS SHOULD REFLECT A DIURNAL CYCLE
WITH CHC VALUES AT NIGHT, THEN RISING TO LIKELY VALUES DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO GENERALLY
RANGE AROUND 90 DEGREES WITH LOWS AROUND 70 DEGREES.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT AN SHARP H5 TROUGH WILL SWING
ACROSS THE MID-WEST ON FRIDAY. AT THE SFC, AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
WILL ORGANIZE EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS, BETWEEN THE CAROLINAS TO THE
MID-ATLANTIC STATES. THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEVELOPING
LOW SHOULD SWEEP ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON FRIDAY. IN FACT, THE
GFS INDICATES THAT THE FRONT MAY ADVANCE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
DURING THE HEAT OF THE DAY. THE FORECAST WILL FEATURE LIKELY POPS
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
DURING THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, CONDITIONS SHOULD BE A BIT
DRIER IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT. THE FORECAST WILL INDICATE
DIURNAL SCHC POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD. GIVEN GREATER INSOLATION, HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO RANGE GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 80S WITH
LOWS IN THE 60S.
AVIATION /21Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
26.18Z - LARGELY VFR ACROSS THE REGION WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS, THOUGH SOME MVFR CIGS ARE STARTING TO BE OBSERVED AS WE REACH
CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES. MAIN AVIATION CONCERN IN THE NEAR-TERM IS
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, WHICH ARE EXPECTED TO
INCREASE IN COVERAGE AS A SEA BREEZE FORMS AND MOVE INLAND, WITH
MVFR-IFR CIGS AND VSBYS POSSIBLE AS THEY MOVE OVER ANY GIVEN
LOCATION. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AS A
SHORTWAVE MOVES IN FROM THE WEST. ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE, MOSTLY BRINGING A THREAT FOR STRONG
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH, THOUGH THERE REMAINS A <5% CHANCE
FOR QUARTER SIZE HAIL. AFTER SHOWERS/STORMS MOVE OUT OVERNIGHT,
LOW MVFR- IFR STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE IN, WITH PATCHY FOG
POSSIBLE NEAR- SUNRISE.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK: OCCASIONAL VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS
EXPECTED, MAINLY DURING DAYTIME SHOWERS AND TSTMS, THOUGH OVERNIGHT
FOG IS ALSO POSSIBLE.
MARINE
TONIGHT: INCOMING WEDGE LOOKS STRONGER THAN EXPECTED. EAST WINDS
WERE INCREASED TO 15-20 KT OVER THE SOUTH CAROLINA LEGS WITH 15
KT WITH GUSTS TO 20 KT AT THE CHARLESTON HARBOR. THERE IS A
CHANCE THAT A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED PER UPSTREAM
TRENDS, BUT PREFER TO HOLD OFF FOR NOW TO SEE HOW THINGS EVOLVE
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY: THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL LIKELY YIELD
WINDS/SEAS WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW ADVISORY THRESHOLDS.
RIP CURRENTS: AS A MODEST SWELL BEGINS TO BUILD IN ON TUESDAY,
COMBINED WITH A HIGHER THAN NORMAL TIDAL RANGE, A MODERATE RISK FOR
RIP CURRENTS IS EXPECTED ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AT ALL BEACHES.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
A LUNAR PERIGEE WILL OCCUR TODAY WITH A NEW MOON ON TUESDAY.
THE EVENING HIGH TIDES AT CHARLESTON ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
MINOR COASTAL FLOODING TONIGHT AND AGAIN TUESDAY EVENING. FORT
PULASKI COULD PEAK AT MINOR FLOOD STAGE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY,
THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOWER SO ADDITIONAL COASTAL FLOOD
ADVISORIES ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT.
CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
SC...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR SCZ049-
050.
MARINE...NONE.
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