969
FXUS62 KCHS 270514
AFDCHS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
114 AM EDT TUE MAY 27 2025
SYNOPSIS
AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGHOUT THIS WEEK AS
A FRONT LINGERS NEARBY AND SERIES OF DISTURBANCES MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION ON FRIDAY,
WITH DRIER WEATHER THIS WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/
NO CHANGES MADE WITH THE MID-OVERNIGHT UPDATE.
THE RISK FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH
OF THE NIGHT. EARLIER STRONG/SEVERE CONVECTION HAS ENDED.
UPSTREAM RADARS SHOW A SOMEWHAT ORGANIZED LINE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS
MOVING INTO SOUTHWEST GEORGIA. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY COULD REACH
THE FAR INLAND AREAS EARLY TUESDAY MORNING, PARTICULARLY FAR
INTERIOR SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 60S
WELL INLAND TO THE LOWER 70S AT THE BEACHES.
SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/
TUESDAY, AN AREA OF COLD AIR DAMMING SHOULD BEGIN THE DAY ACROSS THE
CAROLINAS AND MOST OF GEORGIA. THE FORECAST WILL FEATURE LIGHT
NORTHEAST WINDS ACROSS THE CWA DURING THE MORNING. SHORT TERM
GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT A COAST TROUGH OR SEA BREEZE WILL DEVELOP
DURING THE AFTERNOON, DRIFTING INLAND. MOISTURE CONVERGENCE MAY
INCREASE BETWEEN THE WEDGED AIR MASS AND THE SEA BREEZE. THE
FORECAST WILL INDICATE LIKELY POPS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW DEEP MOISTURE WITH PW VALUES EXCEEDING 1.8
INCHES WITH STORM MOTIONS BETWEEN 10 TO 15 MPH. HREF INDICATES THAT
THE POTENTIAL FOR 1 IN/3HR WITHIN 40 KM WILL PEAK DURING THE
AFTERNOON AROUND 50 PERCENT ALONG THE SEA BREEZE. IN ADDITION, A
FIELD OF CAPE BETWEEN 1000-1500 J/KG MAY DEVELOP NEAR THE SEA
BREEZE, SUPPORTING A FEW STRONG UPDRAFTS. SPC HAS HIGHLIGHTED THE
REGION WITH A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER. GIVEN THE DEPENDENCE
OF THE ERODING CAD, HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL FAVOR COOLER MEMBERS,
WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, THE H5 PATTERN WILL GRADUALLY AMPLIFY, WITH
A TROUGH AXIS EXPECTED TO PASS OVER THE FORECAST AREA ON THURSDAY.
THE ENVIRONMENT ACROSS THE REGION WILL CONTINUE TO FEATURE DEEP
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY. THE POPS SHOULD REFLECT A DIURNAL CYCLE
WITH CHC VALUES AT NIGHT, THEN RISING TO LIKELY VALUES DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO GENERALLY
RANGE AROUND 90 DEGREES WITH LOWS AROUND 70 DEGREES.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT AN SHARP H5 TROUGH WILL SWING
ACROSS THE MID-WEST ON FRIDAY. AT THE SFC, AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
WILL ORGANIZE EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS, BETWEEN THE CAROLINAS TO THE
MID-ATLANTIC STATES. THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEVELOPING
LOW SHOULD SWEEP ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON FRIDAY. IN FACT, THE
GFS INDICATES THAT THE FRONT MAY ADVANCE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
DURING THE HEAT OF THE DAY. THE FORECAST WILL FEATURE LIKELY POPS
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
DURING THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, CONDITIONS SHOULD BE A BIT
DRIER IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT. THE FORECAST WILL INDICATE
DIURNAL SCHC POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD. GIVEN GREATER INSOLATION, HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO RANGE GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 80S WITH
LOWS IN THE 60S.
AVIATION /05Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
27/06Z TAFS:
IFR CIGS ARE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE REGION AND WILL LIKELY BEGIN
IMPACTING KCHS/KJZI/KSAV SOON AFTER THE START OF THE 06Z TAF
PERIOD. ALL TAF SITES WILL INITIALIZE WITH MVFR CIGS AND FEATURE
A TEMPO FROM 06-08Z FOR IFR CIGS. CIGS SHOULD IMPROVE TO MVFR
AFTER SUNRISE AT ALL SITES AND PERSIST INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS FORECAST, WITH
VCTS FEATURED IN THE TAF AFTER 18Z. EXACT TIMING OF IMPACTS FROM
SHOWERS/TSTORMS STILL HAS LOW CONFIDENCE SO ADDITIONAL
REFINEMENTS WILL BE MADE WITH FUTURE TAF ISSUANCES. MODELS ARE
AGAIN HINTING AT LOW CIGS DEVELOPING AT ALL TAF SITES TONIGHT.
HAVE INCLUDED MENTION OF MVFR CIGS AT KCHS/KSAV LATE IN THE TAF
PERIOD.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK: OCCASIONAL VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS
EXPECTED, MAINLY DURING DAYTIME SHOWERS AND TSTMS, THOUGH OVERNIGHT
FOG IS ALSO POSSIBLE.
MARINE
TONIGHT: A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM SOUTH
SANTEE TO EDISTO BEACH OUT 20 NM THROUGH 4 AM FOR FREQUENT GUSTS
25-30 KT DEVELOPING AS THE WEDGE BUILDS SOUTH.
TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY: THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL LIKELY YIELD
WINDS/SEAS WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW ADVISORY THRESHOLDS.
RIP CURRENTS: AS A MODEST SWELL BEGINS TO BUILD IN ON TUESDAY,
COMBINED WITH A HIGHER THAN NORMAL TIDAL RANGE, A MODERATE RISK FOR
RIP CURRENTS IS EXPECTED ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AT ALL BEACHES.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
THE RISK FOR COASTAL FLOODING WILL PERSIST FOR THE NEXT FEW
EVENINGS, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE CHARLESTON AND COLLETON COUNTY
COASTS. ADDITIONAL COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED.
CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
AMZ350.
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...
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