988
FXUS62 KCHS 280215
AFDCHS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1015 PM EDT TUE MAY 27 2025
SYNOPSIS
A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES WILL AFFECT THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY,
THEN A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH LATE FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL THEN BUILD IN FROM THE WEST.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/
A LARGE AREA OF CONVECTION CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS
THE REGION THIS EVENING. THE WEDGE FRONT HAS BECOME A BIT MORE
MUDDLED OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS, BUT IS LURKING SOMEWHERE FROM
KRBW-KCHS-KGGE. LOW CLOUDS ARE DOMINATE NORTH INTO THE WEDGE.
CONVECTION WILL STEADILY WORK OFF TO THE NORTHEAST WITH A RISK
FOR A STRONG TSTM OR TWO LINGERING ALONG THE GEORGIA COAST AND
ALONG THE LOWER SOUTH CAROLINA COAST SOUTH OF THE WEDGE FRONT
FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. LOOKS LIKE HEAVY RAINS WILL ARRIVE AFTER
THE WORST OF THE HIGH TIDE IN DOWNTOWN CHARLESTON. NEAR TERM
POPS WERE ADJUSTED UP TO 100% AHEAD OF THE LINE.
SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/
AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD.
SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY ALOFT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA WEDNESDAY,
AND A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL LINGER JUST OFF THE COAST. CAPE
VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB ABOVE 1000 J/KG IN SOME AREAS DURING
THE AFTERNOON. A DECENT SEA BREEZE IS EXPECTED, THOUGH THE BEST
INLAND PENETRATION WILL OCCUR IN SOUTHERN SC. FORCING LOOKS A BIT
LOWER THAN THE OTHER DAYS AND MOISTURE WILL BE ON A SLIGHT DOWNWARD
TREND THROUGHOUT THE DAY, THEREFORE WE MAINTAIN 30-40% POPS. OVERALL
SEVERE POTENTIAL REMAINS LOW WITH 20 KT BULK SHEAR VALUES, ALTHOUGH
AN ISOLATED STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE STORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE MID TO UPPER 80S MOST PLACES WITH A FEW
LOWER 90S ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.
THE 500 MB PATTERN BEGINS TO AMPLIFY ON THURSDAY WITH A STRONG
SHORTWAVE LIFTING THROUGH THE AREA IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
DEEPER TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL ADVECT INTO THE AREA WHILE CAPES REACH
1000-1500 J/KG LATER IN THE DAY. GOOD COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS
EXPECTED DURING THIS PERIOD, WITH SOME AREAS PICKING UP TO 1-2" OF
RAINFALL. TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN PEAK IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S MOST
PLACES WITH A FEW LOWER 90S ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA, AND MIN TEMPS
IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.
A LONGWAVE UPPER TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH LATE FRIDAY, PUSHING A
COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA. PWATS WILL REMAIN ABOVE 1.9" AHEAD OF
THE FRONT, AND CAPE VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO REACH 1000-1500 J/KG.
WIND FIELDS ARE DECENT WITH 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR OF 35-40 KT LATER IN
THE AFTERNOON. AT A MINIMUM WE SHOULD SEE A FAIRLY CONTIGUOUS BAND
OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING. A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EVEN POSSIBLE,
WITH DAMAGING WINDS THE MAIN CONCERN. CONVECTION SHOULD HELP LIMIT
MAX TEMPERATURES TO THE LOW TO MID 80S WITH ISOLATED AREAS CLOSER TO
THE COAST REACHING THE UPPER 80S.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
SHOWERS AND TSTMS COULD BE ONGOING FRIDAY EVENING AS THE COLD FRONT
PUSHES THROUGH. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN ON SATURDAY BRINGING
RELATIVELY DRIER AIR AND MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS FOR THE WEEKEND. A
SECONDARY FRONT COULD MOVE THROUGH ON MONDAY, POTENTIALLY
ACCOMPANIED BY A POTENT UPPER SHORTWAVE. THIS COULD BRING A ROUND OF
CONVECTION. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER BEHIND THE FRONT
SATURDAY, BUT SHOULD REBOUND TO NEAR NORMAL FOR THE REST OF THE
PERIOD.
AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
28/00Z TAF DISCUSSION:
KCHS/KJZI: CONVECTION SHOULD BE WEAKENING NEAR KCHS AS 00Z
APPROACHES, BUT THE TAF MAY NEED TO INITIALIZE WITH VCTS PENDING
LATE MINUTE RADAR TRENDS. OVERNIGHT, THE REMNANTS OF CONVECTION
MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA ARE POISED TO CROSS THE TWO
TERMINALS ROUGHLY IN THE 04-07Z TIME PERIOD. THE CIGS/VSBY
FORECASTS ARE CONSERVATIVE GIVEN ACTIVITY SHOULD BE WEAKENING
AS IT APPROACHES. FOR NOW, VCTS WAS HIGHLIGHTED DURING THIS TIME
WITH A TEMPO FOR MVFR IN TSRA. LOW STRATUS SHOULD FILL IN
BEHIND THE CONVECTION WITH IFR CIGS LIKELY. CIGS WERE HELD JUST
ABOVE ALTERNATE MINIMUMS PER LATEST RAP SOUNDINGS AND
STATISTICAL GUIDANCE. CIGS SHOULD LIFT TO MVFR SHORTLY AFTER
DAYBREAK WITH MVFR BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. CONVECTION
MAY BE NOT BE AS WIDESPREAD AS THE PAST FEW DAYS, SO MENTION OF
TSRA WAS INCLUDED FOR THE AFTERNOON PERIOD, BUT THIS MAY NEED TO
BE REEVALUATED OVERNIGHT.
KSAV: THE PRIMARY CONCERN IS THE AREA OF TSTMS MOVING ACROSS
CENTRAL GEORGIA. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE TERMINAL
BY 03Z AND PERSIST TO SOME DEGREE THROUGH 06Z WHILE WEAKENING.
WITH ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO WEAKEN, A CONSERVATIVE CIGS/VSBY
FORECAST WAS MAINTAINED SHOWING PREVAILING MVFR CIGS/VSBYS WITH
TEMPO CONDITIONS NEARING IFR AT TIMES. AMENDMENTS WILL LIKELY BE
NEEDED AS TRENDS BECOME BETTER ESTABLISHED. LOW STRATUS SHOULD
FILL IN BEHIND THE CONVECTION WITH IFR CIGS LIKELY. CIGS WERE
HELD JUST ABOVE ALTERNATE MINIMUMS PER LATEST RAP SOUNDINGS AND
STATISTICAL GUIDANCE. CIGS SHOULD LIFT TO MVFR SHORTLY AFTER
DAYBREAK WITH MVFR BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. CONVECTION
MAY BE NOT BE AS WIDESPREAD AS THE PAST FEW DAYS, SO MENTION OF
TSRA WAS INCLUDED FOR THE AFTERNOON PERIOD, BUT THIS MAY NEED TO
BE REEVALUATED OVERNIGHT.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK: OCCASIONAL VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS
EXPECTED, MAINLY DURING DAYTIME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
MARINE
TONIGHT: THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL SUPPORT SOUTHEAST WINDS
AROUND 10KTS WITH WINDS SHIFTING FROM THE SOUTH TONIGHT. SEAS
ARE FORECAST TO RANGE BETWEEN 2 TO 4 FT. IT IS POSSIBLE A
THUNDERSTORM NEAR THE COAST THIS EVENING MAY WARRANT A SPECIAL
MARINE WARNING, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE GA COAST.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY: SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD
BE WELL BELOW ADVISORY THRESHOLDS THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. SW WINDS
WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE FRIDAY AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT. THERE
COULD BE GUSTS APPROACHING 25 KT AND SEAS APPROACHING 6 FEET IN THE
CHARLESTON COUNTY NEARSHORE WATERS AND GEORGIA OFFSHORE WATERS (FROM
20-60 NM) FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES COULD BE NEEDED. NO ADDITIONAL MARINE CONCERNS THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.
RIP CURRENTS: THE COMBINATION OF MODEST SWELLS AND HIGHER THAN
NORMAL TIDAL RANGE, A MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS WILL REMAIN
FOR ALL BEACHES THROUGH THIS EVENING.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
THE RISK FOR COASTAL FLOODING WILL PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST
WEDNESDAY EVENING, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE CHARLESTON AND COLLETON
COUNTY COASTS. ADDITIONAL COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORIES COULD BE
NEEDED.
CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
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