343
FXUS62 KCHS 280509
AFDCHS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
109 AM EDT WED MAY 28 2025
SYNOPSIS
A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES WILL AFFECT THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY,
THEN A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH LATE FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL THEN BUILD IN FROM THE WEST.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/
CONVECTION IS ALMOST ALL OFFSHORE AS OF 1 AM, WITH SOME
LINGERING SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER THE CHARLESTON TRI-COUNTY AREA.
SHOWERS WILL COMPLETELY EXIT THE FORECAST AREA OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS, WITH SOME LOW CLOUDS EXPECTED TO BUILD IN
BEHIND. TEMPERATURES CURRENTLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S WILL
LIKELY BE THE LOWS FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.
SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/
AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD.
SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY ALOFT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA WEDNESDAY,
AND A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL LINGER JUST OFF THE COAST. CAPE
VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB ABOVE 1000 J/KG IN SOME AREAS DURING
THE AFTERNOON. A DECENT SEA BREEZE IS EXPECTED, THOUGH THE BEST
INLAND PENETRATION WILL OCCUR IN SOUTHERN SC. FORCING LOOKS A BIT
LOWER THAN THE OTHER DAYS AND MOISTURE WILL BE ON A SLIGHT DOWNWARD
TREND THROUGHOUT THE DAY, THEREFORE WE MAINTAIN 30-40% POPS. OVERALL
SEVERE POTENTIAL REMAINS LOW WITH 20 KT BULK SHEAR VALUES, ALTHOUGH
AN ISOLATED STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE STORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE MID TO UPPER 80S MOST PLACES WITH A FEW
LOWER 90S ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.
THE 500 MB PATTERN BEGINS TO AMPLIFY ON THURSDAY WITH A STRONG
SHORTWAVE LIFTING THROUGH THE AREA IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
DEEPER TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL ADVECT INTO THE AREA WHILE CAPES REACH
1000-1500 J/KG LATER IN THE DAY. GOOD COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS
EXPECTED DURING THIS PERIOD, WITH SOME AREAS PICKING UP TO 1-2" OF
RAINFALL. TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN PEAK IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S MOST
PLACES WITH A FEW LOWER 90S ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA, AND MIN TEMPS
IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.
A LONGWAVE UPPER TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH LATE FRIDAY, PUSHING A
COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA. PWATS WILL REMAIN ABOVE 1.9" AHEAD OF
THE FRONT, AND CAPE VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO REACH 1000-1500 J/KG.
WIND FIELDS ARE DECENT WITH 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR OF 35-40 KT LATER IN
THE AFTERNOON. AT A MINIMUM WE SHOULD SEE A FAIRLY CONTIGUOUS BAND
OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING. A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EVEN POSSIBLE,
WITH DAMAGING WINDS THE MAIN CONCERN. CONVECTION SHOULD HELP LIMIT
MAX TEMPERATURES TO THE LOW TO MID 80S WITH ISOLATED AREAS CLOSER TO
THE COAST REACHING THE UPPER 80S.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
SHOWERS AND TSTMS COULD BE ONGOING FRIDAY EVENING AS THE COLD FRONT
PUSHES THROUGH. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN ON SATURDAY BRINGING
RELATIVELY DRIER AIR AND MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS FOR THE WEEKEND. A
SECONDARY FRONT COULD MOVE THROUGH ON MONDAY, POTENTIALLY
ACCOMPANIED BY A POTENT UPPER SHORTWAVE. THIS COULD BRING A ROUND OF
CONVECTION. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER BEHIND THE FRONT
SATURDAY, BUT SHOULD REBOUND TO NEAR NORMAL FOR THE REST OF THE
PERIOD.
AVIATION /05Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
28/06Z TAF DISCUSSION:
KCHS/KJZI: SHOWERS WILL LINGER OVER THE TERMINALS THROUGH THE
FIRST HOUR OR SO OF THE 06Z TAF PERIOD. THEREAFTER IFR CIGS ARE
FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE TERMINALS, PERSISTING UNTIL JUST
AFTER DAYBREAK. MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL UNTIL AROUND
NOONTIME, WHEN VFR CIGS DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION. THERE IS A
LOW CHANCE OF SOME SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM FORMATION IN THE
AFTERNOON HOURS, BUT GIVEN THE ISOLATED NATURE CONFIDENCE WAS
NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE MENTION IN THE 06Z TAFS.
KSAV: GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE TERMINAL
THROUGH THE 06Z TAF PERIOD, WITH SOME INSTANCES OF IFR CIGS
FORECAST FROM 06-08Z. THEREAFTER, PREVAILING VFR. THERE IS A LOW
CHANCE OF SOME SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM FORMATION IN THE AFTERNOON
HOURS, BUT GIVEN THE ISOLATED NATURE CONFIDENCE WAS NOT HIGH
ENOUGH TO INCLUDE MENTION IN THE 06Z TAFS.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK: OCCASIONAL VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS
EXPECTED, MAINLY DURING DAYTIME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
MARINE
TONIGHT: THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL SUPPORT SOUTHEAST WINDS
AROUND 10KTS WITH WINDS SHIFTING FROM THE SOUTH TONIGHT. SEAS
ARE FORECAST TO RANGE BETWEEN 2 TO 4 FT. IT IS POSSIBLE A
THUNDERSTORM NEAR THE COAST THIS EVENING MAY WARRANT A SPECIAL
MARINE WARNING, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE GA COAST.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY: SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD
BE WELL BELOW ADVISORY THRESHOLDS THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. SW WINDS
WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE FRIDAY AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT. THERE
COULD BE GUSTS APPROACHING 25 KT AND SEAS APPROACHING 6 FEET IN THE
CHARLESTON COUNTY NEARSHORE WATERS AND GEORGIA OFFSHORE WATERS (FROM
20-60 NM) FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES COULD BE NEEDED. NO ADDITIONAL MARINE CONCERNS THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.
RIP CURRENTS: THE COMBINATION OF MODEST SWELLS AND HIGHER THAN
NORMAL TIDAL RANGE, A MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS WILL REMAIN
FOR ALL BEACHES THROUGH THIS EVENING.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
THE RISK FOR COASTAL FLOODING WILL PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST
WEDNESDAY EVENING, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE CHARLESTON AND COLLETON
COUNTY COASTS. ADDITIONAL COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORIES COULD BE
NEEDED.
CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...
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