627
FXUS62 KCHS 280728
AFDCHS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
328 AM EDT WED MAY 28 2025
SYNOPSIS
A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES WILL AFFECT THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY,
THEN A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH LATE FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD IN OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
TODAY: A LARGE MID-LEVEL LOW PRESSURE CENTERED JUST WEST OF THE
GREAT LAKES WILL DOMINATE THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN, YIELDING
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA. AT THE
SURFACE A STALLED WEAK FRONT WILL REMAIN IN THE VICINITY. TODAY
WILL FEATURE PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES, WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
REACHING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S, WITH AROUND 90 POSSIBLE
SOUTH ALONG THE ALTAMAHA RIVER IN GEORGIA. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON,
HOWEVER COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE MUCH LESS THAN PREVIOUS DAYS.
PWAT VALUES ARE FORECAST TO DECREASE TO ONLY AROUND 1.5" AND
LARGE SCALE FORCING IS ABSENT. BOTH THE 00Z HRRR AND HREF SHOW
MINIMAL PRECIPITATION COVERAGE. ANY STORM THAT IS ABLE TO FORM
WILL LIKELY HAVE UPWARDS OF 1000 J/KG OF CAPE TO WORK WITH, SO A
STRONG STORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
TONIGHT: ANY ONGOING PRECIPITATION WILL DIMINISH WITH
NIGHTFALL, WITH A GENERALLY QUIET NIGHT FORECAST. OVERNIGHT LOWS
WILL DIP INTO THE UPPER 60S INLAND WITH LOW 70S ALONG THE
COASTAL COUNTIES. THERE ARE SOME HINTS THAT FOG MAY DEVELOP
OVERNIGHT, PARTICULARLY ACROSS INLAND LOCATIONS. HOWEVER, GIVEN
LOW CONFIDENCE, NO FOG HAS BEEN EXPLICITLY MENTIONED IN THE
FORECAST.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
SEVERAL STRONG SHORTWAVES WILL LIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA
ON THURSDAY. MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL BE IN PLACE DURING THE
DAY, ALONG WITH PWS ABOVE 1.8". AN MCS COULD MOVE NORTHEAST
THROUGH THE AREA FROM CENTRAL GA, BRINGING NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
TSTMS TO THE AREA. THIS ACTIVITY COULD CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT GIVEN THE CONTINUED SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY.
THE LONGWAVE UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO SWING INTO THE EASTERN
UNITED STATES ON FRIDAY WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT SLATED TO CROSS
THE AREA FRIDAY EVENING. FAIRLY WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND TSTMS
SHOULD PRECEDE THE FRONT. WIND FIELDS INCREASE CONSIDERABLY ON
FRIDAY. 925 MB WINDS WILL BE 40-45 KT FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND 0-6
KM BULK SHEAR INCREASES TO 35-40 KT. THE SEA BREEZE WILL ENHANCE
THE GRADIENT ALONG THE COAST IN THE AFTERNOON, RESULTING IN
BREEZY CONDITIONS. SOME CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION IS POSSIBLE AS
THE FRONT APPROACHES AND INTERACTS WITH 1500-2000 J/KG CAPE. THE
PRIMARY SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS. THE
BRUNT OF THE ACTIVITY SHOULD PUSH OFFSHORE BY LATE FRIDAY
EVENING.
A NOTICEABLE AIRMASS CHANGE WILL OCCUR BEHIND THE FRONT WITH SATURDAY
DEWPOINTS DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 50S WITH AIR TEMPS IN THE
LOWER 80S.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MONDAY. ISOLATED SEA
BREEZE CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS THE
SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS OFFSHORE AND LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE BEGINS TO
INCREASE.
AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
28/06Z TAF DISCUSSION:
KCHS/KJZI: SHOWERS WILL LINGER OVER THE TERMINALS THROUGH THE
FIRST HOUR OR SO OF THE 06Z TAF PERIOD. THEREAFTER IFR CIGS ARE
FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE TERMINALS, PERSISTING UNTIL JUST
AFTER DAYBREAK. MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL UNTIL AROUND
NOONTIME, WHEN VFR CIGS DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION. THERE IS A
LOW CHANCE OF SOME SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM FORMATION IN THE
AFTERNOON HOURS, BUT GIVEN THE ISOLATED NATURE CONFIDENCE WAS
NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE MENTION IN THE 06Z TAFS.
KSAV: GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE TERMINAL
THROUGH THE 06Z TAF PERIOD, WITH SOME INSTANCES OF IFR CIGS
FORECAST FROM 06-08Z. THEREAFTER, PREVAILING VFR. THERE IS A LOW
CHANCE OF SOME SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM FORMATION IN THE AFTERNOON
HOURS, BUT GIVEN THE ISOLATED NATURE CONFIDENCE WAS NOT HIGH
ENOUGH TO INCLUDE MENTION IN THE 06Z TAFS.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK: OCCASIONAL VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS
EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING, MAINLY IN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.
MARINE
TODAY: A WEAK STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN STALLED IN THE
VICINITY OF THE MARINE WATERS TODAY. GENERALLY SOUTHERLY WINDS
AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS ARE FORECAST, WITH SEAS AVERAGING 2 TO 3
FT, WITH SOME 4 FT SWELL MAKING IT INTO THE OUTER PORTIONS OF
THE CHARLESTON COUNTY NEARSHORE WATERS AND THE 20 TO 60 NM
OFFSHORE GA WATERS. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY, SOME OF WHICH MAY PUSH OFF
LAND ZONES AND INTO THE MARINE WATERS. A FEW OF THE STORMS MAY
BE STRONG, POSSIBLY NECESSITATING THE ISSUANCE OF SPECIAL MARINE
WARNINGS.
TONIGHT: GENERALLY QUIET CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AS
ANY PRECIPITATION DIMINISHES WITH NIGHTFALL. SOUTHERLY WINDS
GENERALLY AROUND 10 KNOTS WITH SEAS AVERAGING 2 TO 3 FT.
LOW-LEVEL WINDS WILL INCREASE LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS A
STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND THEN MOVES THROUGH THE WATERS
BY FRIDAY EVENING. MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WIND GUSTS
POSSIBLE IN CHARLESTON HARBOR AND THE CHARLESTON NEARSHORE
WATERS FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT.
RIP CURRENTS: THE COMBINATION OF MODEST SWELLS AND HIGHER THAN
NORMAL TIDAL RANGE, A MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS IS IN
EFFECT FOR ALL AREAS BEACHES TODAY.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
THE RISK FOR COASTAL FLOODING WILL PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST
THIS EVENING, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE CHARLESTON AND COLLETON
COUNTY COASTS. ADDITIONAL COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORIES COULD BE
NEEDED.
CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
NEAR TERM...CPM
SHORT TERM...JRL
LONG TERM...JRL
AVIATION...CPM/JRL
MARINE...CPM/JRL
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