919
FXUS62 KCHS 300224
AFDCHS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1024 PM EDT THU MAY 29 2025
SYNOPSIS
A STORM COMPLEX OVER THE DEEP SOUTH WILL TRACK OVER THE AREA
THIS EVENING, THEN A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH LATE FRIDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/
LATE THIS EVENING: CONVECTION FROM THE AFTERNOON SHIFTED
OFFSHORE AND HAS ONLY NOW EXITED OUR COASTAL WATERS IN THE LAST
HOUR OR SO. FOR LAND AREAS, MOST OF THE AREA IS DRY WITH
CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS MAINLY ALONG THE COAST DOWN AROUND SAVANNAH
AND UP TO THE CHARLESTON AREA. THIS ACTIVITY SEEMS TO BE
ASSISTED BY SHORTWAVE ENERGY ALOFT AND IT APPEARS WE WILL SEE
THESE CLUSTERS CONTINUE ALONG THE COAST THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL MOSTLY
COME TO AN END DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AND THE AREA
SHOULD BE MOSTLY RAIN-FREE AS SUNRISE FRIDAY APPROACHES. THE
POTENTIAL FOR FOG AND LOW STRATUS REMAINS, THOUGH CURRENT
GUIDANCE SEEMS TO FAVOR STRATUS OVER FOG.
SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/
FRIDAY: A LONGWAVE UPPER TROUGH WITH AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE WILL
APPROACH THE SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC AND CAROLINAS, WHICH WILL
EVENTUALLY PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT.
MOISTURE SEEMS TO BE ON A DOWNWARD TREND THE LAST FEW DAYS,
HOWEVER STILL EXPECTING PWATS TO INCREASE FROM 1.3 INCHES IN THE
MORNING TO AROUND 1.75 INCHES BY LATE AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. SIMILARLY, MLCAPE VALUES HAVE DECREASED BUT ARE EXPECTED
TO PEAK AROUND 800-900 J/KG. WIND FIELDS ARE FAIRLY STRONG
THOUGH WITH 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR OF 35-45 KT. THERE COULD BE SOME
RESIDUAL SHOWERS FROM THE PREVIOUS NIGHT LINGERING MAINLY
OFFSHORE OR ALONG THE COAST IN THE MORNING HOURS, HOWEVER MOST
LOCATIONS OVER LAND LOOK RAIN-FREE WITH SOUNDINGS SHOWING DECENT
SUBSIDENCE. MODELS DEPICT A LINE OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITH SOME ORGANIZATION APPROACHING FROM THE
NORTHWEST, SWEEPING THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. A
FEW STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE
HAIL. THERE ARE ALSO SIGNALS THAT THE LINE OF STORMS COULD
WEAKEN AS THEY MARCH EASTWARD TOWARD THE COAST AS THE
ORIENTATION OF THE FRONT BECOMES SLIGHTLY MORE ALIGNED PARALLEL
TO THE FLOW. REGARDLESS, RAINFALL SHOULD COME TO AN END BY LATE
EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL PEAK IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S BEFORE
THE ONSET OF CONVECTION, BECOMING RELATIVELY COOL OVERNIGHT;
DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 50S FAR INLAND AND LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S
ELSEWHERE.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY: A DISTINCTLY DRIER AIR MASS WILL MOVE INTO
THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT SATURDAY. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
ARE EXPECTED BOTH DAYS IN ADDITION TO DEW POINTS DIPPING INTO
THE 50S DURING PRIME AFTERNOON MIXING HOURS. HIGHS POST FROPA
WILL PEAK IN THE LOW TO MID 80S SATURDAY AND A DEGREE OR TWO
WARMER FOR SUNDAY. SATURDAY NIGHT LOW TEMPS WILL REACH THE LOWER
TO MIDDLE 60S AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
A REINFORCING COLD FRONT COULD MOVE THROUGH LATE SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY, POTENTIALLY ACCOMPANIED BY A POTENT UPPER SHORTWAVE
SLIDING BY TO OUR SOUTH. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE (LESS THAN 20%)
THIS COULD BRING SOME SHOWERS TO THE AREA, HOWEVER MOISTURE
WILL BE LIMITED WITH WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE STILL IN PLACE.
THEREAFTER, RIDGING ALOFT WILL TAKE SHAPE RESULTING IN MOSTLY
DRY WEATHER AND A GRADUAL WARMING TREND THROUGHOUT NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
AT 02Z, VFR CONDITIONS REMAIN IN PLACE. THERE ARE SHOWERS
DEVELOPING ALONG THE COAST AND THIS ACTIVITY COULD IMPACT THE
TERMINALS WITH BRIEF RAINFALL AND SOME VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS.
THE FIRST FORECAST CONCERN IS ONCE AGAIN THE POTENTIAL FOR LOWER
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES LATE TONIGHT. WE WILL AGAIN FAVOR
STRATUS OVER FOG AND ADVERTISE A PERIOD OF IFR CEILINGS AT ALL 3
SITES IN THE 10-14Z TIME PERIOD. ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS
IS EXPECTED LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND WE HAVE ADDED VCTS IN AT
ALL 3 SITES STARTING AROUND 21-22Z.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK: VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS POSSIBLE
THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING, MAINLY IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION, GUSTS UP TO 20 KT ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY AND
AGAIN SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
MARINE
TONIGHT: THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL SUPPORT SOUTHERLY WINDS
BETWEEN 10 TO 15 KTS WITH SOME GUST. SEAS ARE FORECAST TO RANGE
BETWEEN 2 TO 3 FT TONIGHT. SPECIAL MARINE WARNINGS MAY BE NEEDED
ACROSS THE CHS HARBOR AND ATLANTIC WATERS THROUGH THIS EVENING,
WIND GUSTS AROUND 35 KTS POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.
FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY: SW WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE FRIDAY
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. GUSTS COULD REACH 25 KT LATE AFTERNOON
AND CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
COULD BE NEEDED FOR THE CHARLESTON COUNTY NEARSHORE WATERS,
INCLUDING THE CHARLESTON HARBOR, AND THE OUTER GEORGIA WATERS
FROM 20-60 NM. ELEVATED WSW WIND GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN
SATURDAY, BUT SHOULD STAY BELOW 25 KT. IMPROVEMENT SHOULD BE
UNDERWAY SATURDAY NIGHT WITH NO ADDITIONAL MARINE CONCERNS
THROUGH THE PERIOD.
CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
NEAR TERM...BSH
SHORT TERM...BRS
LONG TERM...BRS
AVIATION...BRS/BSH
MARINE...BRS/NED
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