768
FXUS62 KCHS 311953
AFDCHS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
353 PM EDT SAT MAY 31 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN OVER THE WEEKEND AND PREVAIL
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/
ALOFT, LONGWAVE TROUGHING WILL ENCOMPASS MUCH OF THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE CONUS WITH A DEEP UPPER LOW ACROSS NEW ENGLAND AND
EASTERN CANADA. AT THE SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE DEEP
SOUTH WILL BEGIN TO FILTER INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST AS
THE SURFACE LOW OVER NORTHERN MAINE LIFTS NORTH. QUIET
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH A COOL, DRY AIR
MASS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE. PRIME RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR TONIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES, LIGHT TO CALM
WINDS, AND SEASONABLY LOW DEW POINTS IN THE MID/UPPER 50S.
THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DIP INTO THE LOWER 60S AWAY
FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND MID TO UPPER 60S NEAR/ALONG THE
BEACHES AND DOWNTOWN CHARLESTON.
ONE DETAIL TO NOTE: A LAYER OF SMOKE FROM THE CANADIAN
WILDFIRES ADVECTED IN VIA THE UPPER TROUGH SHOULD LINGER ALOFT
OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES WERE INHIBITED EARLIER TODAY, AND
THEREFORE COULD OFFSET RADIATIONAL COOLING EFFECTS TONIGHT. MIN
TEMPS COULD NEED TO BE ADJUSTED WITH FUTURE UPDATES.
SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/
ALOFT, THE REGION WILL REMAIN ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A
BROAD LONGWAVE TROUGH EXTENDING ACROSS THE EAST CONUS SUNDAY, BEFORE
A NOTABLE H5 SHORTWAVE ROUNDS ITS SOUTHWESTERN EDGE AND APPROACHES
THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES, BUT LIKELY TRACKS JUST SOUTH OF THE
LOCAL AREA MONDAY, THEN FAR OFFSHORE TUESDAY. MID-LVL RIDGING THEN
TAKES PLACE ON TUESDAY, WITH ITS AXIS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE
CAROLINAS. AT THE SFC, HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY BUILD ACROSS THE
REGION SUNDAY, THEN PERSIST THROUGH TUESDAY, IN WAKE A FRONT
POSITIONED WELL OFFSHORE AND SOUTH OF THE REGION. THE PRESENCE OF
THE HIGH AND NORTHWEST DOWNSLOPE WIND ALOFT WILL LIKELY MAINTAIN DRY
CONDITIONS FOR MOST AREAS SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY, WITH MODEL
SOUNDINGS ALSO INDICATING A FAIRLY LARGE AMOUNT OF DRY AIR IN THE
LOW-MID LVLS LOCALLY. HOWEVER, THERE APPEARS TO BE A SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR A SHOWER AND/OR THUNDERSTORM MONDAY AFTERNOON, MAINLY ALONG A
SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION ACROSS SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA WHEN PEAK H5
VORT ENERGY TRAVERSES NEAR THE AREA.
THE PRESENCE OF A THE DRY DOWNSLOPE PATTERN ALONG WITH RIDGING
TAKING PLACE BY TUESDAY SUGGESTS A WARMING TREND EARLY WEEK, WITH
HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID-UPPER 80S SUNDAY, PEAKING IN THE UPPER
80S/LOWER 90S MONDAY AND TUESDAY. STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING NIGHTS
UNDER CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT/CALM WINDS SHOULD FAVOR LOWS IN THE LOW-
MID 60S INLAND TO UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S AT THE BEACHES.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
ALOFT, MID-LVL RIDGING WILL PREVAIL OVER THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES
MID-WEEK, LIKELY REMAINING IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH
EARLY THURSDAY, BEFORE BEGINNING TO SHIFT OFFSHORE FRIDAY WHILE H5
SHORTWAVE ENERGY ADVANCES ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH. AT THE SFC, HIGH
PRESSURE STRETCHED ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST WILL FAVOR AN ONSHORE FLOW, USHERING MOISTURE INTO THE
LOCAL AREA THROUGH LATE WEEK. THE COMBINATION OF INCREASING LOW-LVL
MOISTURE, ABUNDANT SFC HEATING, AND APPROACHING MID-LVL ENERGY
SHOULD YIELD DIURNAL CONVECTION (SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS) AS EARLY
AS THURSDAY, BUT MORE LIKELY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. TEMPS WILL REMAIN
ABOVE NORMAL, GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY, AND LOWER 90S FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. LOWS WILL ALSO BE MILD,
GENERALLY IN THE MID-UPPER 60S INLAND TO LOW-MID 70S NEAR THE COAST
TUESDAY NIGHT, WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY NIGHT, THEN MAINLY IN
THE LOW-MID 70S ACROSS MOST AREAS THIS WEEKEND.
AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
VFR THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT
CHS/JZI/SAV TERMINALS SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
MARINE
TONIGHT: OVERNIGHT, QUIET CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OFFSHORE WITH
WESTERLY WINDS AROUND 10-15 KT AND SEAS AVERAGING 2-3 FEET.
SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY: ALOFT, THE REGION WILL REMAIN ALONG THE
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A BROAD TROUGH SUNDAY, BEFORE A H5 SHORTWAVE
APPROACHES THE SOUTHEAST, BUT REMAINS INLAND AND SOUTH OF LOCAL
WATERS THROUGH EARLY WEEK. AT THE SFC, A FRONT WILL REMAIN WELL
OFFSHORE AND SOUTH OF LOCAL WATERS, LEAVING HIGH PRESSURE TO
DOMINATE THE PATTERN EARLY WEEK. OTHER THAN A FEW SHOWERS OR
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPING ALONG AN AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE AND
POTENTIALLY DRIFTING OFFSHORE, MARINE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN QUIET, WITH LIGHT OFFSHORE WINDS EACH MORNING (LAND BREEZE),
BECOMING ONSHORE DURING THE AFTERNOON (SEA BREEZE), PEAKING IN THE
10-15 KT RANGE, ALTHOUGH A FEW GUSTS TO 20 KT ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE
CHARLESTON COUNTY COAST WITH A SEA BREEZE DEVELOPING EACH DAY. SEAS
WILL GENERALLY RANGE BETWEEN 1-2 FT.
BY MID-WEEK, MID-LVL RIDGING BECOMES CENTERED ACROSS THE CAROLINAS
WHILE AN AXIS OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS STRETCHED FROM THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC TO THE CAROLINAS, JUST NORTH OF LOCAL WATERS. THE
PATTERN WILL STEER WINDS ONSHORE BOTH DAY AND NIGHT MID-WEEK, WITH
SPEEDS GENERALLY IN THE 10-15 KT RANGE ACROSS MOST WATERS, ALTHOUGH
A SLIGHTLY TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT COULD LEAD TO GUSTS UP TO
20 KT ACROSS GEORGIA WATERS. THE LONG FETCH SHOULD HELP BUILD
SEAS MID- WEEK, APPROACHING 2-4 FT BY THURSDAY.
CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
NEAR TERM...BRS
SHORT TERM...DPB
LONG TERM...DPB
AVIATION...BRS/DPB
MARINE...BRS/DPB
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