975
FXUS62 KCHS 260759
AFDCHS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
359 AM EDT THU JUN 26 2025
SYNOPSIS
A HOT AND HUMID AIR MASS WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT MAY PUSH OVER THE
REGION BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
PRIOR TO DAYBREAK: A FEW SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS COULD CONTINUE ACROSS
FAR SOUTHERN ZONES (PRIMARILY MCINTOSH COUNTY) EARLY MORNING WHERE A
BOUNDARY FROM PREVIOUS CONVECTION HAS PROVIDED A ZONE OF MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE AND MODEST INSTABILITY (SBCAPE AROUND 2500 J/KG)
RESIDES. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN SUB-SEVERE WITHIN A
WEAKLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT, BUT BRIEF DOWNPOURS COULD POSE SOME
IMPACTS TO THOSE DRIVING ALONG I-95 NEAR THE ALTAMAHA RIVER.
ACTIVITY SHOULD EVENTUALLY DRIFT SOUTH AND SLIGHTLY INLAND WITH
TIME, KEEPING MOST AREAS PRECIP-FREE HEADING THROUGH DAYBREAK.
TODAY: ALOFT, A BROAD MID-UPPER LVL LOW WILL MEANDER ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST, REMAINING PRIMARILY CENTERED ACROSS FLORIDA AND GEORGIA
AND FORCING THE MID-UPPER LVL RIDGE FURTHER NORTH AND INLAND. AT THE
SFC, THE LOCAL AREA WILL REMAIN NESTLED ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF
THE ATLANTIC HIGH WHILE WEAK TROUGHING DEVELOPS INLAND TO THE AREA
DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE MID-UPPER LOW WILL BE THE PRIMARY
CONTRIBUTOR TO FORCING NECESSARY FOR FEW TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON, AS LOBES OF H5 VORT ENERGY ADVECT
ACROSS AN INLAND MOVING SEA BREEZE AND POTENTIALLY LINGERING
BOUNDARIES FROM CONVECTION EXPERIENCED DURING THE NIGHT. CONDITIONS
COULD BECOME MARGINALLY SUPPORTIVE FOR A FEW STRONG AND/OR ISOLATED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WIND GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY EVENING GIVEN SBCAPE AROUND 3000 J/KG, LOW-LVL LAPSE
RATES BETWEEN 8-8.5 C/KM, DCAPE VALUES AROUND 1000-1200 J/KG AND
PWATS NEAR 1.75 INCHES. HOWEVER, WEAK SHEAR/WIND FIELDS SUGGESTS
CONVECTION TO BE MORE LOOSELY ORGANIZED, LESS WIDESPREAD, AND
GENERALLY MORE PULSE TYPE IN NATURE AWAY FROM THE COAST. THE STORM
PREDICTION CENTER HAS MUCH OF SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA UNDER A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER TODAY.
TEMPS WILL START OFF COOLER THAN EXPERIENCED THE PREVIOUS FEW DAYS
DUE TO LATE NIGHT CONVECTION, AND SHOULD ALSO RESULT IN A PERIOD OF
PRECIP-FREE CONDITIONS ACROSS MOST ZONES INTO LATE MORNING HOURS.
HOWEVER, THE ATMOSPHERE IS EXPECTED TO RECOVER, WITH STRONG SFC
HEATING UNDER SUNNY/MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES LEADING TO AFTERNOON HIGHS IN
THE LOW-MID 90S AWAY FROM COASTAL AREAS. THESE TEMPS ALONG WITH SFC
DEWPTS IN THE LOW-MID 70S WILL PRODUCE ANOTHER WARM AND HUMID DAY,
BUT HEAT INDEX VALUES SHOULD BE NOTICEABLY LESS THAN THE PREVIOUS
DAY, PEAKING IN THE L00-104 DEGREE RANGE. A HEAT ADVISORY IS NOT
ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.
TONIGHT: A FEW SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS COULD LINGER INTO EARLY EVENING
HOURS WITH H5 SHORTWAVE ENERGY TRAVERSING THE LOCAL AREA ALOFT AND
MODESTLY UNSTABLE CONDITIONS PERSISTING, BUT ACTIVITY SHOULD
GENERALLY WANE WITH THE LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING, REMAIN SUB-SEVERE,
AND DRIFT FURTHER WEST OUT OF THE LOCAL AREA WITH A SEA BREEZE.
WINDS SHOULD DECOUPLE SHORTLY THEREAFTER, LEADING TO LIGHT/CALM
WINDS AWAY FROM THE BEACHES FOR A BULK OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.
TEMPS SHOULD DIP INTO THE UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S WELL INLAND TO MID-
UPPER 70S NEAR THE COAST.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
AN UPPER-LVL RIDGE SITUATED OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL CONTINUE
TO BREAKDOWN THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND. SIMULTANEOUSLY, A BROAD LOW OVER
THE DEEP SOUTH WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT RICH MOISTURE INTO THE REGION
WITH PWAT VALUES RANGING FROM 1.75 TO 2.0 INCHES. THIS WILL BE MORE
THAN ENOUGH MOISTURE TO SPARK UP SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH
AFTERNOON AS THE SEA BREEZE PUSHES INLAND. DUE TO TEMPERATURES IN
THE LOW TO MID 90S AND DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S THROUGHOUT
THE WEEKEND, MODERATE INSTABILITY SHOULD DEVELOP AND IT'S POSSIBLE
TO SEE STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION,
SPC HAS HIGHLIGHTED THE FAR INTERIOR SOUTHEAST GEORGIA COUNTIES IN A
MARGINAL RISK FOR FRIDAY WITH THE PRIMARY CONCERN BEING LOCALLY
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL REMAIN MILD AND ONLY DIP
INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S (WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO THE
BEACHES).
LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
THIS CURRENT PATTERN WILL BE SLOW TO CHANGE AS THIS WEAK UPPER-LVL
LOW CONTINUES TO MEANDER ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH BEFORE EVENTUALLY
DISSIPATING EARLY NEXT WEEK. WITH AN EXPANSIVE FIELD OF MOISTURE
REMAINING OVER THE SOUTHEAST COMBINED WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE
LOW TO MID 90S, MODERATE INSTABILITY (~2000 J/KG) COULD VERY WELL
BUILD EACH AFTERNOON. ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO INDICATE DAILY RAIN
CHANCES THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH STORM ACTIVITY GRADUALLY INCREASING
EACH DAY. BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, RECENT GUIDANCE INDICATES A
SLOW-MOVING COLD FRONT MAY GLIDE THROUGH THE REGION. THUS,
THUNDERSTORMS COULD EASILY DEVELOP ALONG THIS BOUNDARY IF IT MAKES
IT THIS FAR INTO THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR.
AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT CHS/JZI/SAV TERMINALS THROUGH 06Z
FRIDAY. HOWEVER, A FEW SHOWERS AND/OR THUNDERSTORM COULD IMPACT ANY
TERMINAL THIS AFTERNOON, LEADING TO TEMPO FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS.
PROBABILITIES REMAIN TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE LATEST TAF ISSUANCE.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK: VFR WILL MAINLY PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD, HOWEVER BRIEF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON AND/OR
EVENING.
MARINE
TODAY AND TONIGHT: LOCAL WATERS WILL REMAIN ALONG THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF AN ATLANTIC HIGH WHILE WEAK TROUGHING DEVELOPS WELL
INLAND. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS
DURING THIS TIME FRAME, BUT A BROAD MID-UPPER LVL LOW COULD SPAWN
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS LOCAL WATERS DURING THE DAY AND
NIGHT, PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS AND ELEVATED SEAS. OUTSIDE CONVECTION,
SOUTHWEST WINDS IN THE 5-10 KT RANGE WILL GRADUALLY TURN SOUTH AND
PEAK BETWEEN 10-15 KT THIS AFTERNOON, AND PERHAPS GUST A BIT HIGHER
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST WHERE A SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS AND SHIFTS
INLAND. WINDS SHOULD TIP BACK MORE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST BY LATE EVENING,
THEN REMAIN AROUND 10 KT OR LESS DURING THE NIGHT. SEAS WILL
GENERALLY RANGE BETWEEN 1-2 FT TODAY, THEN GRADUALLY BUILD 1 FT
OVERNIGHT.
FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY: EXPECT GENERALLY SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AT
5 TO 10 KT TO PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. IT COULD BECOME A BIT
GUSTY EACH AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS UP TO 15 TO 20 KT AS THE SEABREEZE
PUSHES INLAND (GUSTS STRONGEST ACROSS THE IMMEDIATE COASTLINE AND
THE CHARLESTON HARBOR). SEAS WILL BE 2 TO 3 FT. OTHERWISE, NO MARINE
CONCERNS EXPECTED.
RIP CURRENTS: A 1.5 FT, 8 SECOND SWELL WILL IMPACT THE BEACHES ALONG
WITH A 10-15 KT ONSHORE WIND TODAY. GIVEN THESE CONDITIONS ARE
SIMILAR TO THE LAST COUPLE DAYS WITH SEVERAL RIP CURRENTS REPORTED
ALONG TYBEE ISLAND, GA, A MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS IS IN PLACE
ALONG GEORGIA BEACHES THROUGH THIS EVENING.
CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
NEAR TERM...DPB
SHORT TERM...DENNIS
LONG TERM...DENNIS
AVIATION...DENNIS/DPB
MARINE...DENNIS/DPB
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